A few days ago, the semiconductor giant TSMC held a legal person briefing, at which Liu Deyin, chairman of TSMC, said that due to the lack of subsidies, insufficient skilled workers, and setbacks in the first factory, the second semiconductor factory built by TSMC in the United States will be postponed to 2027 or 2028, and the specific process chip that the factory will invest in has not yet been determined.
Liu Deyin's statement revealed at least two pieces of information, first of all, the mass production of the second semiconductor factory in the United States was delayed, not because TSMC, but because the US government did not fulfill its subsidy commitments, and the problem of worker training was not solved, and secondly, the second factory was originally scheduled to mass produce 3nm chips, but now it is unknown which process of chips will be produced.
Liu Deyin
From the postponement of the mass production time of TSMC's first factory in the United States from the end of 2024 to 2025, and then to the subsequent postponement of the second factory, this is undoubtedly a "great disaster" for US President Biden who promotes the localization of chips, but if you sort out the rights and wrongs and logic, you will find that it may not be accidental that TSMC has repeatedly postponed the mass production time of its factories in the United States.
To be clear, TSMC's decision to build a factory in the United States is not TSMC's original intention, but a deal between the Biden administration and the DPP authorities to empty the Taiwan region, in which the core purpose of the United States is to block Chinese mainland in the field of cutting-edge semiconductors, or more bluntly, part of the blockade of China's science and technology, while the DPP is to sell the island's industry in exchange for its own "protection".
Tsai Ing-wen
TSMC is reluctant to finally agree to build a factory in the United States, which shows that TSMC has no room to speak in this matter, and now that the DPP has won re-election, it means that the Taiwan authorities will prevent TSMC from going to the United States, at least in the next 4 years, so the biggest variable at present is in the United States.
This year, the United States will usher in another election, except for the relatively high voice of California Governor Newsom, the Democratic Party can almost be said to be unavailable, so after Biden shows that he is pursuing re-election, he can only let his "old man lie in the bush", and the Republican Party is with the number one opponent, Florida Governor DeSantis, announced his withdrawal from the election, Trump's position in the Republican Party has formed a fixed trend.
Biden and Trump
That is to say, if Biden does not have an unexpected situation and Newsom does not suddenly announce his candidacy, then this US election is basically a showdown between Biden and Trump, in which case TSMC has room to wait and see, because Trump is always cloudy and uncertain, in case of advancing the construction of a factory in the United States as planned, it may be disrupted after taking office, so it is necessary to exchange space for wait-and-see time.
From this point of view, TSMC's announcement that the mass production of the two factories in the United States will be postponed, which will impact Biden's re-election plan, so it can be predicted that the next means taken by the Biden administration will inevitably continue to pressure TSMC and strengthen the pressure on the development of semiconductors in Chinese mainland.
TSMC's U.S. factory
However, one point that cannot be ignored is that TSMC's visit to the United States has always been a move by the United States to blockade and suppress China, and TSMC's core lies in its means of production and professionals, so to a certain extent, TSMC's construction of factories in the United States is essentially a false proposition, and the United States only needs to master the core materials and professionals of production to consolidate its leading position in the semiconductor field, as for whether the factory can be built and operated, it doesn't matter at all.
So far, many semiconductor professionals that TSMC has worked hard to train have gone to the United States, and even some of them have joined Intel, so from this point of view, it may also be the result of TSMC knowing that it has been hollowed out by the United States, so it can only use procrastination to delay the speed of factory construction and reduce and reduce its own losses.
Biden visits TSMC's U.S. factory
On the one hand, the United States has very great ambitions to suppress Chinese mainland, and has a "either you die or I live" attitude; on the other hand, the DPP authorities are not political forces considering the interests of the Taiwan region, and will only continue to sell the island's industries in exchange for the protection commitment of the United States.
But what the DPP doesn't know is that after TSMC is hollowed out by the United States, they will lose their value, and it is only a matter of time before they are abandoned, and here we can think about what Liu Deyin said about "2027 or 2028", whether TSMC is "waiting for change", waiting for the mainland to support it and resist the robbery of the United States.