Why don't the stock market fall in one step?

The market is falling like this, and many people are about to collapse.

In the current market, confidence is indeed too weak, and there seems to be no end in sight.

Last Thursday, GJD vigorously rescued the market, and the market had a V-shaped reversal, but the follow-up confidence was not enough. Last Friday, the stock market still fell sharply, and only the big votes were holding on.

On Monday, the market fell sharply again, with all three major stock indexes falling more than 2.5%;

Nearly 5,000 stocks fell in the market, more than 4,500 stocks fell by more than 3%, more than half of the stocks fell by more than 5%, more than 1,000 stocks fell by more than 7%, and only more than 100 stocks rose.

If you are still blowing brainlessly at this time, the situation is very good, not a small good, not a medium good, but a big good, it will only backfire and digest the already low reputation.

Admittedly, something is wrong with the stock market.

One of the biggest problems is the reluctance to face up to the real problem.

For example, as soon as the stock market fell, a considerable number of people were saying that there was another financial war.

We actually understand this statement, many people must find an imaginary enemy for themselves after encountering something they can't understand, so that they feel down-to-earth.

But if the professionals or the above look at it this way, then it would be very wrong, and as for the logic and argumentation, we wrote very clearly in our article last Thursday.

Because since this round of decline is attributed to the financial war, the strategy of bailing out the market may be biased, such as a quick victory, a phased victory, and so on.

Therefore, send GDJ to save the market, and your punch on the cotton will have no effect.

Compared to before, there is no essential difference. It fell before, and it will fall after the bailout.

After I reminded everyone last Friday, one reader even sprayed me as a traitor, saying that my definition of financial warfare was too narrow, which was ridiculous.

Failure to face up to the problem and take the wrong approach.

One of the results: GJD's wool.

GJD bailed out the market last Thursday and developed a set of GJD trading strategies last Friday.

One of them is to go long on the IC/IF futures contract and short the IC/IM futures contract shortly after the market opens, and then close the position at one or two o'clock in the afternoon.

This bet is that GJD bails out the market and only saves heavy stocks, so the SSE 50 and CSI 300 stock index futures perform well, but the CSI 500 index and CSI 1000 index, which include small and medium-cap stocks, will fall even worse.

Of course, there is also a reason that in recent days, snowball products are about to knock in, and many products have been liquidated.

In order to hedge risks, only indices such as the Short Stock 500 and CSI 1000 can be made.

In this case, do you go to catch these institutions?

This is something that you didn't prohibit under the previous rules, and this is completely market behavior.

He just doesn't look down on you to save the market, and you can't ask all market players to follow your ideas, and you can't give them a hat for this.

If they are deducted, it will only hit market confidence even more.

If they are not allowed to short the futures index, then it is still snowballing ordinary investors who bear the losses.

Result 2: The market can't get up, and funds have been outflowing.

As soon as the A-share market accelerated, domestic funds investing in Japan and the United States soared, and the time card was very accurate.

Moreover, now these domestic ETFs have been at a significant premium, that is, the bubble has been very large, but it continues to blow up.

The meaning of this behavior is obvious, I would rather embrace the bubbles of Japan and the United States than buy A-shares.

Seeing this market situation, everyone is also ridiculing:

Good news: the national team has shot!

Bad news: I bought the wrong one, I bought the US 50 ETF Japan ETF and so on!

Result 3: Tired of it, calling for the stock market to fall in place in one step.

The stock market has been falling for almost three years, from 3700 points all the way to defend it, now it is 3000 points, 2800 points are lost again, and now it is 2700 points.

Many investors have run out of patience and simply fall into place in one step, such as the previous low of 2760 and 2646 points, as well as various drawings of 2670 and so on.

This is actually a big problem, how do you know that these points are the bottom?

This is not like the RMB exchange rate, there was a common psychological threshold of 7.0 back then, and when it fell from 6.0 to a few down, the support of 7.0 had a strong market consensus.

Even so, the RMB exchange rate has fallen below the 7.0 mark several times, and at most fell to around 7.4.

What about A-shares? There is no consensus expected threshold, not 2,700 points, not even 2,000 points.

Moreover, this time is different from before.

On the one hand, long-term confidence is very different.

It makes no difference when the market is irrationally declining that there is a lack of confidence in the short term, but long-term confidence is very different.

The main reason is that the stock market and the economy are misaligned, and when the stock market fails, the economy may have begun to improve.

But this time it was different, the stock market was not good, and there were layoffs everywhere, and even state-owned enterprises began to lay off employees, which greatly hit the confidence of the stock market.

The difference brought about by this is that the stock was trapped in the past, and the expectations are still relatively clear, and everyone thinks that they can still return to their capital, and it is a big deal to take him for three or five years.

Moreover, foreign capital, industrial capital, etc., will feel that the stock market is undervalued and boldly buy the bottom.

What about now? Foreign capital is gone, and industrial capital is thinking of going overseas (in fact, it is to transfer wealth), and no one wants to buy the bottom.

For ordinary people, it's good to have no job, be able to provide a mortgage, and keep their house, who wants to buy the bottom.

On the other hand, money is no longer speculative.

In the past, when the stock market was not working, one of the monetary policies was to release liquidity.

The central bank releases more liquidity, and if it flows into the real economy, then the real economy will improve, driving market confidence;

If it can't flow to the real economy, then it will at least be idling in the financial system, and there will be a lot of money in the market, at least the stock market will rise.

What now?

The central bank did release a lot of liquidity, but the money did not flow into the real economy, nor did it idle in the financial system, but it did not turn around.

In this case, who dares to guarantee that the point they predict is the bottom?

Confidence is more precious than gold. Only when you lose faith will you realize the preciousness of faith.

At present, the problems of the market have gone beyond the market itself and risen to the level of rules, economy, and economic rules, which cannot be solved in the short term.

What can be solved in the short term? Part of the view is that there are fewer restrictions and the market clears automatically and quickly.

Otherwise, just like before, the more you manage, the more chaotic it is, the more problems you manage, the longer it lasts, and then the stronger the negative feedback will be.

After the market cleared quickly, the brokerage didn't even have time to lay off employees, and the next round of "bull market" began.

Of course, this is only a stopgap measure, and the cost is also significant.

But the question is, when it comes to this, how can there be a move that does not pay a price?

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