Central media: There are four new trend signals in real estate, and a new development model is being built

For the adjustment of the current real estate market, the official has given a clear statement, this adjustment is normal, but also positive, no industry can always be high growth, growth to a certain stage will inevitably usher in the adjustment period.

Therefore, we must not only see the current situation of adjustment, but also know how to transform the model in time to achieve transformation and transition. From the past era of high turnover, high debt and high leverage, to the future to explore a new development model, this process is bound to be painful, but it has to be experienced. As the saying goes, it is easy to go from thrift to luxury, and it is difficult to go from luxury to thrift.

Giving up the original model of making money lying down at once is naturally psychologically difficult to accept. But the smart ones have long given up their illusions and adjusted the track in time. And what kind of policy support or changes do home buyers hope to get, so that they are willing to pay for the market?

On January 15, China News Service judged that China's real estate market is switching from the old model to the new model, and 2024 may be the most critical year. From the national to the local level, some new policies and mechanisms are being explored, showing four new trends, each of which has a deep meaning. Let's make some of our own interpretations based on what it talked about.

1. Accurately support the financing of real estate projects and ensure the confidence of home buyers.

Although the good news of financial support for real estate continues, it is still unable to completely open the financing channels of most real estate companies, and multi-channel money is still the main action of real estate companies. It can be seen that the current real estate enterprises are still facing the actual situation that many favorable policies are difficult to land.

However, as the executor of the guaranteed delivery of the building, the financing of real estate enterprises is the key to ensuring the delivery of the building, and this is also the greatest confidence for the market and buyers. Nie Meisheng, one of the founders of the All-China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce, once said that real estate should first solve the urgent need, "now is not the time to investigate who should hit the board, and we cannot push private real estate enterprises to the situation of self-destruction, not only to save private real estate enterprises, but also to save as much as possible." ”

In fact, saving real estate enterprises is also saving enterprises, but developers must understand that the country's policy guidance is that there is a new landing mechanism in meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises. It helps to distinguish group risks from project risks, and accurately supports real estate project financing.

Therefore, accurately supporting real estate project financing to prevent the misappropriation of funds transferred by real estate enterprises can ensure the smooth progress of the follow-up delivery and help the real estate industry stabilize.

2. The new model of "room ticket placement" will help speed up destocking and boost confidence.

The concept of "room ticket placement" is not unfamiliar to everyone, and "room ticket placement", which once played an important role in large-scale shantytown reform, has recently returned to people's field of vision, and it has been very common in third- and fourth-tier cities in the past. Since 2023, more than 50 cities have launched room ticket placement policies.

But this time, first-tier cities have also joined in. Recently, Liwan District, Guangzhou issued the city's first "room ticket", which also marks the implementation of the new model policy of "room ticket placement" piloted in Guangzhou.

Combined with the background of the current real estate market adjustment, the targeted issuance of "house tickets" will help accelerate the destocking of new houses, have a positive impact on the market faster, balance market supply and demand, and stabilize market expectations.

However, we must also look at it rationally, in the past, there will be no more monetization policies for shantytowns in third- and fourth-tier cities, especially in first-tier cities, the number of such policies will not be too large, and the impact on the market is also limited, or it can be said that the symbolic meaning is greater.

3. Pilot the sale of existing houses in many places and promote the establishment of a new development model.

It is undeniable that off-plan pre-sales have played a positive role, but later various drawbacks have been exposed, which is also an important part of affecting the confidence of home buyers. In recent years, more and more places have explored the sales model of existing houses in land transfer and other links.

Especially in 2024, the state has emphasized that it is necessary to reform the pre-sale system and accelerate the promotion of the existing house sales model. It means that the 30-year-old off-plan sales system in China has begun to loosen, and many places have explored the transformation from increasing pre-sales to existing home sales.

What you see is what you get when you sell your existing home, which is normal and certainly good news for home buyers. However, this process will not be achieved overnight, and it will require a certain amount of patience. At present, we are exploring the establishment of a linkage mechanism of "people, housing, land and money", improving the basic system of real estate, and gradually realizing the transformation from increasing pre-sales to existing house sales.

4. Further optimize real estate policies to support the demand for rigid and improved housing.

No matter how the policy is adjusted, it should be pointed to the buyers, because they are the ones who will pay in the end, and only if they have the confidence and ability can they make a move, and the other participants can get a piece of the pie.

Therefore, in 2024, further optimizing real estate policies and stabilizing the market will still be one of the key tasks of cities. And the most important thing is the favorable policies for those who just need and improve home buyers. Recently, Shanghai, a first-tier city, has made some adjustments to loosen purchase restrictions, which also leaves room for imagination whether Beijing will further optimize its policies.

According to the CITIC Securities research report, it is expected that the policy can gradually stabilize the fundamentals of the real estate market in 2024, and the situation that the second-hand housing market is significantly better than the first-hand housing may change. Therefore, reducing the cost of buying a house and lowering the threshold for buying a house are still the key policy adjustment directions for home buyers. It may still not be enough, so what do buyers need, the policy should receive feedback in time to meet the demand as soon as possible. Only by finding a balance between the parties can the impasse of the current state of the real estate market be opened.

Judging from all the policy explorations, the state does not want real estate to rebound all at once, but to explore a new development model of real estate transformation under the premise of pursuing stability.