#来点儿干货#
Lai Qingde's victory in the election triggered an intensification of cross-strait tensions, and Su Qi, chairman of the Taipei Forum on the island, commented on cross-strait relations at a book launch on 19 July. He pointed out that in the next four to five years, there may be a showdown between the two sides of the strait, and no longer it will be delayed on the island. If the island is unwilling to face the cost of military reunification, it should take the initiative to engage in dialogue with the mainland. Su Qi analyzed that there are three roads on the island at present: bucket, drag, and he, but it will not be long before it is dragged by "dragging", and there will be no better results if it is dragged down. Su Qi believes that reunification is a strategic decision of the mainland, not based on cost and economic considerations. Taiwan media disclosed that Su Qi said in his new book that in recent years, he has often traveled to various countries and the mainland, and then compared it with the island. At present, Taiwan is far surpassed by South Korea and Singapore, which were previously listed as the "Four Asian Tigers", and the gap is being greatly narrowed by Southeast Asian countries.
Taipei's cityscape may not be as good as that of the mainland's third-tier cities. According to Su Qi's analysis, in the next five years or more, the US military strength in the Asia-Pacific region will not be comparable with that of the PLA, so the current US actions are all bluffing. In Su Qi's relevant analysis, one point is clear. That is, there is little point in dragging it out, and the direction that should be taken on the island is to take the initiative to dialogue. In the course of cross-strait consultation and dialogue, the "92 Consensus," which embodies the "one-China principle," is the foundation.
At present, the DPP does not recognize this consensus, making cross-strait dialogue impossible. The current situation in the Taiwan Strait is tending to be unified as a whole, and this trend is the result of the change in the balance of strength between the mainland and external interference forces. The Taiwan issue began in 1895 when Japan forcibly occupied the island of Taiwan in the form of a war of aggression, and its turning point came in 1945 when Japan was defeated in World War II. China took the position of a victorious power to recover the territories occupied by Japan in Taiwan and other places. Cross-strait reunification is a major component of the post-war order. Subsequently, the United States replaced Japan as the main external intervener in the situation in the Taiwan Strait. The main reliance on the United States to interdict is its maritime military strength, industrial production capacity, and regional dominance of the economic system. The obstruction of the United States was the main reason why reunification was not completed after 1949.
From the 50s of the last century to the present, the work of reunification has undergone several major stage changes. I. 1949-1958. During this period, the Taiwan armed forces of the United States attempted to counterattack the mainland, and during the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, the Taiwan military frequently engaged in war operations along the southeastern coast of the mainland. In the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, the US army was defeated, and the backstage army counterattacked the mainland, and its intentions were depressed.
In cross-strait relations, there is a possibility that the United States may use its superior military strength to forcibly promote "Taiwan independence" on the island of Taiwan. In order to maintain cross-strait ties, the Kinmen artillery battle, which lasted for 20 years from 1958 to 1978, witnessed the mainland's attitude of attacking "Taiwan independence" by means of armed reunification. After the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, the official ties between the United States and the Taiwan region were severed. The "one-China principle" is widely followed in China-US relations and in the exchanges between countries and China. Cross-strait relations have gradually dissolved and eased from the isolation and independence of military confrontations, and this atmosphere of relaxation has not only promoted the expansion of cross-strait connectivity through mechanisms such as the "mini three links," but also made it possible for the island to temporarily avoid having to directly confront the Continental Army, and the "Taiwan independence" forces of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have begun to take advantage of this opportunity to raise their heads.
This trend eventually detonated the crisis in the Taiwan Strait of '96, and the island once again faced the military pressure from the mainland, triggering the entire continental army to show its sword, and "Taiwan independence" could not become the overall consensus on the island. Since then, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has turned from open to dark, and has not dared to take the last step of "Taiwan independence." In 2005, the Anti-Secession Law was promulgated, which officially marked the red line of the mainland's military reunification in the form of laws and regulations. The conclusion of the ECFA agreement in 2010 and the expansion of cross-strait economic and trade exchanges have made the peaceful reunification method feasible.
Since 2011, the mainland's Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian ships have been launched successively, and the "Belt and Road", the Shanghai Cooperation Mechanism, and the BRICS mechanism have promoted the construction of China's system. In 2023, China will become the largest exporter of automobiles, witnessing the continued dominance of China's conventional industrial system. The series of achievements made by the mainland have not weakened the feasibility of peaceful reunification, but has continued to strengthen it. The victory of Lai Qingde on the island cannot stir up waves in this situation. At the same time, the United States sank in the boast of the end of its own history.
Represented by Boeing aircraft, the increasingly serious deindustrialization situation in the United States has made its available national strength to hinder cross-strait reunification more and more collapsed. In the situation of eliminating the strengths of one and the other, the increasing advancement of the reunification work is the trend of the situation. In the process of promoting reunification, the mainland's continuous military build-up has ensured the bottom line of military reunification, and it is also expanding the space for peaceful reunification in the opposite direction.