The performance of optical communication giants exceeded expectations, benefiting from the continuous advancement of computing power construction such as NVIDIA, and institutions raised their profit forecasts

Investment Highlights:

1. The performance of optical communication giants exceeded expectations;

2. The global demand for AI is strong, and the sustainability of computing power construction is worth looking forward to;

3. The company's production capacity continues to be released, and the introduction of 1.6T optical modules is also expected to be accelerated;

4. Institutions raise their profit forecasts.

Tianfu Communication (300394)

First, the performance of optical communication giants exceeded expectations

The company is one of the world's largest manufacturers of optical communication passive device solutions, and has expanded to cover all upstream product categories of optical modules over the years, and has formed high-speed optical device packaging OEM/ODM solutions. According to the company's 2023 annual performance forecast, it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 6.8~760 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68%~88%, and the net profit deducted from the non-attributable parent company will be 6.5~740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77%~102%. In the single quarter of 4Q23, the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121%, exceeding the previous market expectation of 250 million yuan. The core driving factor is the construction of data centers driven by global artificial intelligence technology, and the demand for high-speed optical device products continues to grow steadily. At the same time, the company has greatly improved the capacity utilization rate through product line adjustments such as Arctic Optoelectronics production conversion and Jiangxi expansion.

2. The global demand for AI is strong, and the sustainability of computing power construction is worth looking forward to

The construction of global data centers has driven the sustained and stable growth of the demand for high-speed optical device products, especially the rapid growth of the demand for high-speed products, and the industrial chain has high growth and high certainty. Nvidia's net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of FY24 increased by 306% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non-attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of FY23 increased by 60% year-on-year. Since entering 2024, all giants in the AI computing power industry chain have expressed optimism about the construction of AI computing power: TSMC said at the 23Q4 results meeting that the CAGR of AI-related business is expected to reach about 50% in recent years, and AI computing chips alone will account for nearly 20% of revenue; NVIDIA emphasized that the company's performance can continue to grow in 2025, and the sustainability of AI computing power construction is worth looking forward to.

3. The company's production capacity continues to be released, and the introduction of 1.6T optical modules is also expected to be accelerated

The company has deep technology and process accumulation in the fields of optical passive devices and high-speed optical engines, and has entered the supply chain system of mainstream high-quality customers in the global industry, and the demand side has fully benefited from the dividends of AI computing power chain. In the future, with the further release of the company's production capacity, especially the Thailand base, which can meet the high demand, the performance is expected to continue the high growth trend. On the other hand, driven by the rapid upgrade and iteration of GPUs, the introduction of 1.6T optical modules is also expected to accelerate, and in this context, the company, as the upstream core manufacturer of the optical communication industry chain, is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the industry upgrade dividend, and 1.6T-related optical passive devices, optical engines and other products are expected to contribute new performance increments.

Fourth, institutions raise their profit forecasts

Huatai Securities raised the company's 2023~2025 net profit attributable to the parent company to 7.01/12.15/1.551 billion yuan (previous value: 6.49/9.43/1.197 billion yuan), comparable companies in 2024 Wind consensus expectation of the average PE is 27x, considering the company's leading position in the field of optical devices, as well as the rapid release of high-speed product revenue, giving the company 40xPE in 2024, corresponding to a target price of 123.12 yuan (previous value: 119.41). yuan), maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk warning: the demand for high-speed products is less than expected, and the competition in the industry is intensifying.

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