After reading the statement of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, I believe in these two predictions about China's property market

▼ Text|Lao Mo

If I ask you, why does the current property market always make us feel "no longer brilliant"?

Needless to say, in fact, many people have different answers to this question, for example, you may think that because the house price is too high, as long as the official mandatory price reduction of 40%, 50%, the problem will definitely be solved;

But the problem is that no matter what, at this point, even if we figure it out, it's not that important. What we really need to do is to predict the trend of China's property market this year, and I think that no matter which angle we start from, we can't do without these two points.

01 / Finally, we can gradually solve the problem of unfinished buildings, and the work of ensuring the delivery of the building is progressing steadily!

On January 9, Beijing Daily disclosed a very important data, which reads like this: more than 3 million units of 3.5 million special loan projects for guaranteed delivery of buildings have been delivered. In this way, it can be calculated that the delivery ratio is as high as eighty percent.

Honestly, that's the problem-solving attitude. Let's combine the background of the times, the core word of the property market in the past is speed, which can be seen from the new construction area, please pay attention to these two points:

1. Eighteen years ago, that is, in 2005, only 550 million square meters of new construction was started;

2. As of the year before last, that is, in 2021, it has soared to 1.46 billion square meters.

With such a rapid growth rate, even if you look at the world, I am afraid that you will not be able to find a second one. Although it has greatly improved our quality of life, it has also caused some problems in the process.

This includes unfinished sales, and in case you haven't noticed, from this point of view, it can also be extended to pre-sales.

Looking at it this way, it is not difficult to understand why many cities have frequently mentioned current sales recently. In fact, just last year, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, had emphasized this point again:

"Strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds and accelerate the reform of the pre-sale system. ”

In terms of city selection, expert Yan Yuejin made it clear that it can be actively promoted in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu and Zhengzhou.

Don't think this is groundless, just on January 11, 2024, the "Financial Associated Press" also publicly reported another thing, to the effect that "Zhejiang will promote the reform of the pre-sale system and will be piloted in Wenzhou and other cities." ”

Obviously, if the current sale can really be fully implemented, then this can undoubtedly help solve the problem of unfinished products from the side, which is beyond doubt.

02 / "Good house" is likely to become the main direction in recent years, and even in the future!

In fact, we have also mentioned good houses in the past, but now that I think about it, my thinking is too limited. Objectively speaking, a good house should not only be newly built, but also renovation.

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, by the end of November last year, three good results had been achieved: First, a total of 53,000 old urban communities had been newly renovated across the country, benefiting 8.82 million residents; second, 746,000 parking spaces had been added, and 32,000 elevators had been installed; and third, about 100,000 kilometers of urban gas and other pipelines had been renovated.

In fact, we can't just look at building new houses, as many cities have a large number of old houses, including the controversial prefabricated houses. Therefore, how to solve it is the key.

Combined with the actual situation, comprehensive demolition is not realistic at all, and renovation is another important direction. Following this line of thought, the question is quite simple, how to transform it?

In fact, the official has long told us the answer, which is a good house. And in addition to the three achievements mentioned above, there is another point worth paying attention to, that is, 14,000 community service facilities such as elderly care and childcare have been added.

Obviously, this is probably one of the future development directions, as for the effect, we will wait and see.

Sum up:

This may be the same as the transformation of industries, which gradually transform or even shut down labor-intensive, low-output, and high-polluting enterprises, and replace them with high-tech industries. In the process, there will be fluctuations in itself.

In our view, volatility means weakness, which may also be in line with the current state of the property market.

What do you think about this?

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