With a decrease of 2.08 million a year, the Chinese population will not reach 1.5 billion?
The following article is from the Bureau of Earth Knowledge, and the author is the Bureau of Earth Knowledge
Author: Nari Su
Sources:
Bureau of Earth Knowledge
(ID:diqiuzhishiju)
The era of the Chinese population continuing to grow may be gone forever.
China's population in 2022 was 850,000 fewer than in 2021, the first decline in recent decades, marking that China has entered a period of negative population growth.
According to the 2023 population data just released in the past two days, the national population at the end of 2023 will be 2.08 million less than the end of the previous year, of which 9.02 million will be born and 11.1 million will die.
Statistics on the number of Chinese population
That's a loss of more than two million people.
This number is equivalent to the population of the entire Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture!
1.5 billion that will never be reached
According to United Nations estimates, the total population of the mainland has been surpassed by India in the first half of last year, and now the release of population data confirms this news. China has been sitting in the position of the world's most populous country for hundreds of years or more, but there are too few things in the world that will never change.
Comparison of population numbers between China and India
The number of people is only a superficial phenomenon, but the essence is that China's demographic structure has changed.
In 2021, only 10.62 million people were born in China, compared with 9.56 million in 2022, which is less than when the total population was only 500 million at the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China.
The decline in the birth rate is the main reason for the negative growth of the Chinese population, and the decline in China's birth rate is very large, which is also in line with most people's speculation.
China's birth population and birth rate
The newborn population is generally measured using two data, one is the birth rate and the other is the fertility rate. To put it simply, the birth rate is a random selection of 1,000 people to see how many newborns were born in the same year, and to see how many children a woman in childbearing age has, this is called fertility rate.
The difference between birth rate and fertility rate
Taking into account the asymmetry in infant mortality rates and in the sex ratio of male to female newborns, it is generally believed that a fertility rate between 2.1 and 2.2 will maintain neither an increase nor a decrease in the population relative to the previous generation. That is, each couple has 2~3 children.
At present, China is well below this figure. China's fertility rate has fallen to around 1.15 in 2021, and in 2022 it is already below 1.1, and at the same time lower than Japan's 1.3.
In fact, China's declining fertility rate is not a slow process. In 2016, driven by the "two-child policy", the number of new births reached 18.83 million, and China's fertility rate reached 1.7 that year.
Total fertility rate in China
A few years ago, the United Nations predicted that if China's total fertility rate remained between 1.70 and 1.77, China's total population would fall to 1.065 billion by the end of the century. If the total fertility rate remains at around 1.3, China's total population will fall to 684 million by the end of the century.
It can be seen that even the fertility rate assumed by the United Nations minimum programme is 1.3. But in fact, according to the latest figures, China's fertility rate is significantly lower than the fertility rate of the United Nations' low program.
From 2016 to 2023, in just seven years, the number of new births has dropped from nearly 20 million to 9.02 million, a decrease of more than half.
Looking through the "bound version", in the early years, there were always some experts who believed that Chinese love children, as long as the policy is liberalized, 2.03 billion yuan is not a problem, what evidence, calculation, analysis is a bunch of piles. But in reality, judging by current trends, China's population may never reach 1.5 billion.
The comprehensive two-child policy is a "big pill", which makes the birth number shine back in an instant, but it does not cure the root of the disease. Chinese people are also human beings, and like many highly modernized countries, they will fall into low fertility.
So what is the real demographic trend in China, how many people will be in China in the next 10 or even 20 years, and what will be the demographic structure?
Malthus vs Ma Yinchu
Last year, a report was released, called "Chinese Population Forecast Report 2023 Edition", which gives population projections that are worth referring to.
According to the report, if the current fertility rate remains unchanged, the Chinese population will fall to 1.374 billion by 2030 and the Chinese population to 1.230 billion by 2050.
The number of births in China will be 8.34 million in 2030, which is not much different from the current number, but as the birth rate continues to be sluggish and the number of women of childbearing age decreases, this number will fall even further, and the number of births in China will fall to an estimated 6.98 million by 2050.
As for the 2050 period after 2050, it will already be another generation's thing, and the situation in China will definitely change compared to what it is now, and it is difficult to predict what kind of changes will be.
It is worth mentioning that the report believes that the number of births in China will converge with those in the United States in 2055, and the number of births in the United States will continue to be higher than that of China thereafter.
Due to the absorption of a certain number of immigrants every year
The number of births in the United States has been quite stable
India, on the other hand, is declining year by year
In terms of childcare costs, the "Shenzhen 0-3 Year Old Infant Family Parenting Cost Survey Report" shows that in 2021, the total parenting cost of 0-3 year-old infants and young children in Shenzhen will average about 74,612 yuan/year. The "China Fertility Cost Report" also mentioned that the average cost of raising children aged 0-17 in urban areas is 630,000 yuan, and the average cost of raising children in rural areas aged 0-17 is 300,000 yuan.
A complete "Gold Eater"!
For most Chinese, this is an astronomical amount, and it is indeed unaffordable. It costs so much money to raise a child, which will inevitably affect your quality of life, and it may not necessarily bring a better life to your child.
Under the trade-off between the two, it is not easy to live your life well, so don't ask for any more bicycles.
In addition, there are 1.4 billion people in China, and when looking for a job, job seekers often hear: "If you don't do it, someone will do it", and many people used "you don't have a life" to PUA young people.
Indeed, even in the context of family planning, parts of China still maintain high fertility rates. For example, the Chaoshan region of Guangdong has always believed that "five boys and two women" is the best number of children.
In Linxia, Gansu, due to local traditional customs, many women are 18 years old
(or even lower)
As far as marriage is concerned, the number of children born after marriage is less than three and five is not much, so the fertility rate of Linxia has always been far ahead of the rest of the country.
(Photo: Gansu People's Congress)
In addition to these two regions, other regions in China that maintain relatively high fertility rates include Tibet, the Xihaigu region of Ningxia, Zhanjiang in Guangdong, and Zhaotong in Yunnan.
It is worth mentioning that the birth rate of Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province is not low, ranking among the top first- and second-tier cities in the country. Shenzhen and Dongguan are the youngest cities in the country, with an aging rate of less than 4%, and almost all of the cities are young people, all of whom are young men and women of childbearing age, and the proportion of newborns has risen all of a sudden.
However, even in none of these regions, the world average fertility rate of 19 per thousand has been reached.
If we compare China's prefectures with other countries in the world, Linxia Prefecture in Gansu Province, which has the highest birth rate, is comparable to Turkey, and Lhasa, Tibet, which is close to Colombia, are all in the lower middle of the world. But it is already the most productive region in China.
The second echelon of Shantou in Guangdong and Guyuan in Ningxia have been on a par with developed countries such as Australia and Ireland, which are so-called "old age and low birthrate".
Landscape - Total fertility rate of countries in the world in 2023
As for the northeastern cities with the lowest birth rate in the mainland and the core area of Beijing and Shanghai, there is no rival in the world. You must know that in 2021, the birth rate in Xicheng District, Beijing is 5.41 per thousand, while South Korea and Monaco, which are tied for the first place in the bottom, have birth rates of 6 per thousand, which is not in this evaluation system.
The real problem is not the size of the population
What is the impact of population decline on China?
A large population, especially among young adults, means a larger workforce, a larger market, and more potential for innovation. A larger population may also help sustain economic growth and the country's competitiveness.
Of course, the low fertility rate still needs to be looked at dialectically.
For individuals, a lower birth rate is not a bad thing. The fewer children a family has, the less necessary it is to spend. The only child can inherit more wealth from the previous generation, or improve their strength in social competition, or simply improve their quality of life.
The quality of life is clearly more important than the absolute number of people.
Many of the problems that have plagued people for many years are essentially a side effect of the huge size of the population. If resources are numerators, then population is the denominator, and the more relative population, the less resources per capita, and the pressure on the environment, the lack of infrastructure, and so on, will follow.
The benefit of a smaller population is less resource consumption. But the problem is again, although the per capita resources have increased, because the number of people has become smaller, the industries that need manpower may also be in short supply of people, and people's actual life experience may not be as good as when the population exploded.
Of course, this matter still needs to be viewed dialectically, and if it is placed in an environment of low scientific and technological level and backward productive forces, it is indeed a problem.
However, judging from the current level of scientific and technological development in the world, especially the blowout development of robots and AI in recent years, this problem may not be a problem in the future.
As far as the issue of old-age care is concerned, now the older generation of PUA young people give birth, and they can't help but say "who will take care of you when you are old".
But take a 20-year-old person as an example, and when he turns 60, it will be 2064.
And now it is 2024, and the level of science and technology can already realize the automatic pension of some wealthy people
(Although they don't actually need to)
and so on for another 40 years, with the continuous development of science and technology, nursing homes and caregivers
(Referring to humans)
Whether it can exist or not may be a question.
In a word, "You can't look at the present with the eyes of the past, and you can't look at the future with the eyes of the past, but you should pay more attention to the fact that you can't look at the future with the eyes of the present!"
To sum up, the number of people is not absolutely good or bad, but needs to be considered comprehensively according to the specific situation. From the perspective of our country's own economic, social, environmental and resource conditions, population decline is not an absolutely bad thing, but it has the potential to promote sustainable development and improve social welfare.
But the recession, labor shortages, and aging population caused by too rapid reduction are the real problems that need to be faced.
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