With regard to demolition and relocation, must cash and house tickets be "one or the other"?

▼ Text|Lao Mo

01 / Is "room ticket placement" really that good?

Just some time ago, I also discussed demolition and house tickets with you, but then someone sent a private message and suggested that I talk more carefully. Therefore, this article will talk to you about this topic.

The background of the times is not emphasized, in fact, strictly speaking, the room ticket is not a new thing at all. Because it appeared as early as 2015, it has gone through 8 years, mainly including two stages of development:

First, as early as 2015-2018, there have been cities to promote and implement, but the intensity is not large.

For example, in mid-2016, Xi'an issued the "Administrative Measures for the Monetized Housing Ticket Resettlement of Shantytown Reconstruction in Xi'an", which clearly mentions "housing ticket resettlement". However, on the whole, it is still "currency-based, supplemented by room tickets", and there is no substantial adjustment.

In fact, it is not difficult to understand that the local financial pressure was not great at that time, and the urbanization rate was only 56%, which means that there are still many people who need to buy houses in the city, so monetary resettlement can stimulate the demand for housing more, and more importantly, it is more in line with the development of the property market.

Second, since 2022, the scale of housing ticket resettlement has gradually grown, and at least about 30 cities have implemented it.

In fact, since 2018, the entire demolition work has gradually lost its popularity, let alone the house ticket. However, what we didn't expect was that since the previous year, the "room ticket placement" has reappeared again, and the momentum is getting stronger and stronger.

Guangzhou, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Qingdao, Xiamen and other major economic cities have officially announced the implementation of room tickets, so the question is, what are the advantages of room tickets? In this regard, I think the key lies in these two points:

1. It reduces the financial pressure of local cities, and there is no need to pay cash;

2. Avoid a large amount of capital outflow, and also target the inventory of local commercial housing.

The first point is very easy to understand, even in second-tier cities, even if the house area is small, if you want to demolish an old house, you need at least 1 million to 2 million, even if you only demolish 1,000 suites, you need a full 1 billion, and it is not so easy to get together so much money.

In contrast, the second point is more difficult to understand, in order to facilitate everyone's understanding, I will take Guangzhou as an example, clearly stipulating that the house ticket can only be used to buy a new house in the city. In this way, it is clear what are the advantages of the room ticket, especially for local cities.

Following this line of thought, as for whether the room ticket is good or not, this is different from person to person and cannot be generalized.

02 / Why is there not much demand for room ticket placement this time?

In fact, objectively speaking, although they are also house ticket placements, these two stages cannot be compared at all in terms of housing prices and value. In order to make it easier for everyone to understand, I will illustrate it through data.

The first is in terms of value. In just six years, some cities have seen a decline in value, for example, the value of the house ticket was originally 30%-40% higher than the appraised price of the house, but now it is only 10% at most.

I think the reason is financial pressure, let's take PSL as an example, from 2014 to 2018, there is a clear trend of "first rising and then falling".

Especially after reaching the peak of 972.5 billion yuan in 2016, it began to decline continuously, and only 698 billion yuan was left after just two years, a decrease of nearly three percent. If local cities want to demolish and renovate sheds, PSL funds are an important source.

Then naturally, such a signal will be sent: choosing a room ticket placement will definitely lose money. We have to understand that as long as this concept spreads, the number of people who hate or even dislike room tickets will increase, and then the call for room tickets will definitely be a big deal.

The second is housing prices. Let me ask you a question, do you still think that buying a house retains its value? Following this line of thought, it is not difficult to understand why some people want to take money, but they don't want to take a house at all.

And the essence of the room ticket is to get the room. Before 2018, when house prices were almost always going up, you were willing to buy a house, but now? It's the opposite, and it's clear that it's safer to get money.

In fact, from this point of view, it can also explain why the transaction volume of the property market is declining, both of which are due to the weakening of the heat, so why is it weakening? In the final analysis, it is actually our lack of confidence in the property market.

03 / From 2024 onwards, 2 categories of people or income

In fact, based on the current background of the times, cash compensation is not realistic, you may not want a room ticket, but at least it can improve the quality of life.

Therefore, it is also a good thing that the demolition speed can be accelerated, and more old houses can be popular again. In this case, these two types of people are likely to benefit from it.

The first category is the demolition households that urgently need to improve their quality of life. Whether you buy a new house with your own money or exchange a house ticket, as long as you need a house, there is no doubt that there is not much difference in essence.

The second category is the demolition households who just want to get money. To be honest, this kind of people are really affected, from cash to room tickets, who can accept it? Definitely can't accept it, and it's no wonder why some people are resolutely opposed to room tickets.

Sum up:

In fact, the room ticket is not as complicated as you think, and it is not a new thing, it has appeared a few years ago, but it has gradually disappeared, and now it has appeared again.

But no matter what, to tell the truth, our individual ability is very small, and we can't decide many things, and what we can do is to minimize losses according to our own situation.

Speaking of which, I believe everyone should be able to understand.

What do you think about this?

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