Finally, China's real estate has returned to the "Double 11" era

Today is the day when the Bureau of Statistics officially releases the 2023 real estate data, from house prices to sales, which truly reflects the overall situation of the current market.

In 2023, the national real estate development investment will 110913 billion yuan, down 9.6 percent from the previous year, of which residential investment will be 8,382 billion yuan, down 9.3 percent.

In 2023, the sales area of commercial housing will be 111735 million square meters, a decrease of 8.5% over the previous year, of which the sales area of residential buildings will decrease by 8.2%. The sales of commercial buildings 116622 billion yuan, down by 6.5%, of which the sales of residential buildings decreased by 6.0%.

At the end of 2023, the area of commercial housing for sale was 672.95 million square meters, an increase of 19.0% over the previous year. Among them, the area of residential buildings for sale increased by 22.2%.

In 2023, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises will 127459 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.6% from the previous year. Among them, domestic loans were 1,559.5 billion yuan, down by 9.9 percent, foreign capital was 4.7 billion yuan, down by 39.1 percent, self-raised funds were 4,198.9 billion yuan, down by 19.1 percent, deposits and advance receipts were 4,320.2 billion yuan, down by 11.9 percent, and personal mortgage loans were 2,148.9 billion yuan, down by 9.1 percent.

In December 2023, the real estate development prosperity index (hereinafter referred to as the "national housing prosperity index") was 93.36.

The property market has fully entered the Double 11 era, with 1.1 billion square meters + 11 trillion sales.

The most notable of all the data is that in 2023, the area of commercial housing sales will be 111735 square meters, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous year, of which the area of residential sales will decrease by 8.2%. The sales of commercial buildings 116622 billion yuan, down by 6.5%, of which the sales of residential buildings decreased by 6.0%.

In 2012, the sales area of commercial housing was 111304 million square meters, that is to say, the real estate sales area in 2023 is 11 consecutive years, with sales of 116622 billion yuan, which is also the lowest value for 6 consecutive years since 2018!

The real estate market in 2023 will generally stabilize after the high, medium and low. Measures such as lowering the down payment ratio, lowering mortgage interest rates, encouraging commercial banks and borrowers to negotiate more favorable interest rates, providing financial support to "guarantee the delivery of buildings", providing financial support to local governments to provide public rental housing to low-income people, and encouraging financial institutions to support real estate developers to carry out debt restructuring and support real estate market mergers and acquisitions have gradually taken effect, and some signs of positive development have been seen.

"Generally speaking, China's real estate industry is seeking a new balance" The real estate industry is linked to economic development on the one hand, and people's livelihood and well-being on the other. In 2023, from reducing the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate, implementing the "recognising the house without recognising the loan" for the first home in first-tier cities, to optimizing the purchase and sale restrictions, the intensive introduction of blockbuster policies to refresh the historical record, the property market has truly ushered in the "policy bottom".

However, the bottom of the market has not yet appeared, the industry is in a period of transition adjustment, under the basic principle of "housing not speculation", with the further accurate implementation of the policy, to the market to transmit further confidence, real estate and upstream and downstream industries will eventually resume a virtuous cycle of healthy development.

From the general rise after the epidemic in the first quarter of the year to the gradual stabilization in the second quarter, the property market has entered an obvious adjustment cycle in the second half of the year From the third- and fourth-tier cities in 2022 to the second-tier cities in the first half of 2023, and the first-tier cities in the second half of the year, especially in September, the first-tier cities will comprehensively optimize the property market policies to promote the smooth operation of the real estate market.

There are several main reasons for the 2nd consecutive year of decline in the real estate market in 2023:

First of all, factors such as weak income expectations and housing price decline expectations are still restricting the stabilization of the real estate market. At present, the real estate industry is not facing a simple financial problem, and there is pressure on land acquisition, sales, customer sources, loans and even homogeneous product competition. At present, buying a house is a matter of income stability, and under the influence of the backlog of real estate inventory, it still takes more time to stabilize.

Secondly: residents' expectations for the future price of real estate have not improved significantly, the policy-driven effect is relatively limited, and the clearing of the real estate industry is still continuing, especially the financing difficulties of private enterprises are still very large, the risk exposure of individual real estate enterprises, the lack of confidence of consumers to buy houses, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the home buyers who just need the first home has not improved significantly.

Third: the rapid rise in housing prices in the early stage, especially the high proportion of investment in some cities, has also made the market stagnate recently, and a large number of listings have appeared, including the number of foreclosure houses, which has further hit the confidence of buyers.

There has also been a continuous correction in the house price data:

From a month-on-month perspective, in December, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, Beijing was flat, Shanghai rose 0.2%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively. The sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.4% and 0.5% month-on-month respectively, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

On a month-on-month basis, in December, the sales price of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 1.1% month-on-month, 0.3 percentage points narrower than that of the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 1.2%, 0.6%, 1.5% and 1.1% respectively. Second-hand residential sales prices in second-tier cities fell by 0.8% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Second-hand residential sales prices in third-tier cities fell 0.8% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as the previous month.

2023 has passed, real estate prices have changed drastically, from the general rise after the epidemic in the first quarter of the year, to the gradual stabilization in the second quarter, and the property market has entered an obvious adjustment cycle in the second half of the year From the third- and fourth-tier cities in 2022 to the second-tier cities in the first half of 2023, and the first-tier cities in the second half of the year, especially in September, the first-tier cities will comprehensively optimize the property market policies to promote the smooth operation of the real estate market.

In 2023, the national real estate market is in a downward stage of overall adjustment, and the financial pressure on real estate enterprises, especially private enterprises, is still huge. Under the new situation of major changes in supply and demand, the market pattern and enterprise pattern continue to be adjusted in depth.

Factors such as weak income expectations and declining housing prices are still restricting the stabilization of the real estate market. At present, the real estate industry is not facing a simple financial problem, and there is pressure on land acquisition, sales, customer sources, loans and even homogeneous product competition. At present, buying a house is a matter of income stability, and under the influence of the backlog of real estate inventory, it still takes more time to stabilize.

Judging from the housing price data, December continued the housing price adjustment in recent months, and on the whole, the country's 70 major cities were basically adjusted down across the board, especially the second-hand housing record has been lowered for two consecutive months.

Looking at the 70 major cities as a whole, housing prices in 62 cities for new residential buildings and 70 cities for second-hand housing were lowered in December, and house prices fell across the board for 2 consecutive months, creating a record in recent years.

In terms of the overall market, the overall market performance of first-tier cities has stabilized and the decline has narrowed due to the introduction of policies to stabilize the property market in Beijing and Shanghai in December. In December, the sales price of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 1.1% month-on-month, 0.3 percentage points narrower than the previous month.

At present, the property market is still in the process of bottoming out. In the whole month of December 2023, the real estate regulation policy continued to be high, with various policies as high as 78 times in a single month. Cumulatively, the real estate policy in 2023 will be as high as 1,008 times, and after the policy exceeded 1,000 times for the first time in history in 2022, the policy will be released for two consecutive years.

On the whole, the easing of real estate policies continued to be comprehensively upgraded in December, especially in the two megacities of Beijing and Shanghai, which fully relaxed the down payment standards and adjusted the standards for non-general residences. It pulled the rhythm of market easing at the end of the year.

After more than ten years of rapid development, the real estate market corresponds to the shift period of economic growth, the painful period of structural adjustment, and the digestion period of the early stimulus policy, especially in the period of economic transition, the confidence of home buyers is insufficient, and many real estate companies have affected the sense of security of home buyers, so the role of many easing policies for the market is lower than expected

The market outlook predicts that first-tier cities are expected to have a small spring phenomenon in 2024

Increasing confidence, preventing risks, and promoting transformation are still the direction of future policies. The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the People's Republic of China set a positive tone for the real estate policy, and then the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries and commissions have released signals, and Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other first-tier cities have also introduced policies, especially since December 14, Beijing and Shanghai have adjusted the previous down payment ratio, and Shanghai's purchase restriction policy has also changed.

It is expected to drive the market to gradually stabilize by the end of the year. There is a high possibility that the market will have a small spring in the first quarter of 2024, but on the whole, other cities are likely to continue to maintain adjustments, and the market is still in the process of gradually bottoming out.

Overall, it will take some time for the demand of the property market, the income and confidence of home buyers to recover in 2024, and the real estate market may gradually stabilize in the first half of 2024.

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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919; background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 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