Bloomberg raises lithium battery demand forecast For lithium iron phosphate in fixed energy storage market share increases from 23% to 53%

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According to reports, in view of the rapid development of the electric passenger car industry, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) has increased the annual demand forecast for lithium-ion batteries by 1/3 compared with before.

Bloomberg expects annual demand for lithium-ion batteries to exceed 2.7 terawatt-hours by 2030, up 35 percent from last year's forecast. Passenger car sales will increase from 3 million units last year to 14 million units in 2025, accounting for 72% of the total market.

China will continue to have a strong position in the battery supply chain, especially in processing and smelting. This year, China's newly commissioned lithium hydroxide projects account for almost half of the world's total, accounting for 55% of the world's nickel sulfate market and 80% of the cobalt sulfate market.

This Asian country produces 95% of the world's manganese sulfate, as well as almost all graphite materials for anodes. Despite dominating the supply chain, the European electric vehicle market will grow rapidly, with Germany accounting for 40% of global sales by 2025, compared with 25% in China.

"Diversification of global supply chains requires increased investment in Europe and North America."

Bloomberg believes that automakers will turn to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries because they are worried about rising raw material costs, and their prices are cheaper for manufacturers, but at the cost of short mileage. This will see e-mobility unabated, with "lithium iron phosphate's share in the stationary energy storage market increasing from a previous forecast of 23 percent to 53 percent," the company said.

lithium

Bloomberg believes that the supply of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is sufficient until at least 2025, but by 2027, there will be a shortage of lithium hydroxide because of the rising demand for high-nickel batteries.

"A key risk point is that 35% of the projected supply increase will come from projects in Australia from spodumene to lithium hydroxide between now and 2025. These projects are costly and have historically been delayed. If the Australian project is delayed, there will be a shortage of lithium hydroxide by 2025. ”

Since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium products has risen sharply, of which the price of lithium carbonate has risen by 71%, lithium hydroxide has risen by 91%, and spodumene raw materials have risen by 58%. Bloomberg expects prices to continue to rise but gradually enter the platform period as more projects come into production by 2022.

nickel

In the medium term, the nickel sulfate market will remain balanced, and the price will remain around $18,000 / ton in the near term.

"Domestic demand in China is relatively low because some automakers are turning to lithium iron phosphate batteries. This will affect the popularity of high-nickel batteries, so as early as 2024, the nickel sulfate market gap will shrink to 128,000 tons. ”

At the beginning of the year, Bloomberg expected that the nickel market pricing would enter a dual-track system, stimulating investment in the supply of nickel for primary batteries. At the end of the first half of 2021, this urgent need was not reflected in the pricing mechanism of the nickel market. ”

manganese

Production in South Africa, the world's largest manganese producer, tripled in April as the impact of the pandemic waned, but Bloomberg believes that the country's mine production is also affected by factors such as shipments, power stability and port operations.

By 2030, the manganese battery supply chain will see strong growth, with an increase of 9 times. The price of manganese sulfate rose by 30% from $867/ton in January to $1128 in June, and prices will continue to rise by the end of the year.

"With a projected shortage in the manganese sulfate market, higher prices will spur investment in new smelter projects to meet demand in 2024."

graphite

Bloomberg expects graphite demand for lithium-ion batteries to grow 37 percent to 447,000 tons this year and quadruple by 2030. Commercial vehicles are growing the fastest, with demand in 2021 twice as high as the previous year.

Original title: Bloomberg raised the lithium battery demand forecast

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