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The global general decline is no longer a reason for the decline of A-shares

The global general decline is no longer a reason for the decline of A-shares

In the past week, the major A-share indices have generally fallen, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising -1.61%, the Shenzhen Component Index -1.32%, and the Hang Seng Index -1.76%.

Globally, the Nikkei 225 rose 6.59% to a new all-time high, the Nasdaq rose 3.09%, the S&P 500 rose 1.84%, and the KOSPI rose -2.06%, the bottom of the major indexes.

The global general decline is no longer a reason for the decline of A-shares

This time, the global decline can no longer be used to justify A-shares. The 10-year Treasury rate fell below 4% again, which can no longer be a reason for the decline of A-shares. From the perspective of the industry sector, there is no obvious structural market.

Beauty care (5.08%), electrical equipment (2.77%), commerce and retail (1.26%), and building materials (1.1%) led the gains, while electronics (-4.31%), computers (-4.24%), communications (-3.21%), media (-3.03%), and petroleum and petrochemical (-3%) led the decline.

The global general decline is no longer a reason for the decline of A-shares

On the news side, the price data and financial data in December were relatively weak, which suppressed market sentiment to a certain extent.

Judging from the social finance data, the total amount in the past six months has been supported by government bonds, and the demand for loans is still very weak. In 2023, the amount of government bond financing will be 9.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.48 trillion yuan year-on-year. 1.26 trillion yuan more than the 2020 high of 8.34 trillion yuan.

In terms of rhythm, since the second half of the year, the speed of government bond issuance has accelerated significantly, with 2.58 trillion yuan in Q3 and 3.64 trillion yuan in Q4.

The global general decline is no longer a reason for the decline of A-shares

Looking at RMB loans, except for Q1, which had a large number of loans, they declined quarter by quarter, and both increased slightly year-on-year. The new RMB loans in Q4 were 2.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.33 trillion yuan.

The global general decline is no longer a reason for the decline of A-shares

Structurally, it's clear: renminbi loans, which reflect the need for physical financing, are declining, and government bonds are stepping up their backings, making total social financing look good.

According to common sense, although the structure is not good, as long as the total volume grows, it will still have a supporting effect on the economy. In fact, however, a large number of government bonds issued in the second half of the year were used for localized bonds, borrowing new ones to repay old ones, and replacing existing high-interest bonds with low-interest rate bonds. This part of the money is not invested in the real economy.

Therefore, from the perspective of the economy, there is still a shortage of money, and liquidity is tight rather than loose.

This can be seen in the declining rate of monetary growth. Since February 2023, the growth rate of M1 and M2 has been declining. M1, in particular, has fallen to a low of 1.3%.

M1 is dominated by unit demand deposits, which represent the liquidity that can be used immediately by the economy. A GDP growth rate of 5% corresponds to an M1 growth rate of only 1.3%, indicating that liquidity is tight.

The global general decline is no longer a reason for the decline of A-shares

Tight liquidity is not friendly to asset prices. In 2023, the double bears of the stock market and the property market, especially A-shares, will fall against the trend in the global rally, which is related to the continuous record low growth rate of M1.

Looking ahead to 2024, from the perspective of liquidity, it is necessary to increase the growth rate of M1 and M2 in order to better promote the economic recovery.

In the short term, the focus of the market game is whether the central bank will cut interest rates and reserve requirements in January. The special significance of the interest rate cut in January is not only to alleviate the pressure on market liquidity, but also to highlight the importance of relevant departments to stabilize growth and prescribe the right medicine.

At the bottom of the market, the market is volatile. Be patient and be confident.

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