2023 has passed, and we are finally ushering in a brand new 2024. Looking back at 2023, China's economy has grown rapidly, with GDP growth reaching 5.2% in the first three quarters, while the price level has continued to fall. According to authoritative forecasts, China's GDP growth rate will reach 5.6% in the fourth quarter and 5.3% for the whole year, and China's GDP is expected to rise to 126.7 trillion yuan in 2023.
However, the fly in the ointment is that domestic residents' consumption is sluggish, the real estate market is sluggish, and private investment confidence is insufficient. In particular, the consumption demand of domestic residents is sluggish, and many people are more willing to deposit their money in the bank. In the first three quarters, household deposits increased by 14.42 trillion yuan.
In this regard, some experts have suggested that the deposit interest rate should be lowered to the lowest position, so that the people can be forced to take money out of the bank and use it for consumption and investment. However, many people now save money to deal with unemployment, illness, pension and other problems, even if the bank interest rate is low, they still have to keep the money in the bank.
What's more, there is now a large gap between the rich and the poor in domestic society, and only a few people have a lot of wealth. According to data from China Merchants Bank, only 2% of depositors own 80% of deposits, and another 98% have only 20% of deposits. Obviously, it is not that ordinary people are unwilling to consume, but that most people really have no money in their pockets, which can be seen from 5 aspects:
First, cheap cigarettes are getting better and better
A few years ago, when the domestic real economy was improving, it was easier for everyone to make money, and many people liked to smoke high-end cigarettes of dozens of yuan a pack. However, after three years of the pandemic, most people's incomes have decreased. You can only choose low-grade cigarettes for a pack of ten yuan. Just imagine, if smokers have money, they will not treat themselves badly, and it is now that money is becoming more and more difficult to earn, and it is necessary to use it sparingly. Therefore, smokers can only downgrade their consumption and buy some cheap cigarettes to solve their cravings.
Second, unnecessary consumption should be minimized
In the past, many housewives had to eliminate old-fashioned refrigerators, TVs, and air conditioners every few years and replace them with more advanced home appliances with artificial intelligence. In the past, many middle-class people had to replace their cars every few years, but now that their incomes have decreased, they are often reluctant to buy new cars, but will choose to continue to use their old cars.
Third, online shopping consumption is also downgrading
In the past, many families in China mainly chose e-commerce platforms such as Jingdong and Tmall when shopping online, because although the price of goods purchased on these platforms was higher, the quality of the products was still guaranteed. After three years of the epidemic, most netizens now have reduced income, so they can only choose to shop on the Pinduoduo platform, because the prices of goods on the Pinduoduo platform are cheaper.
In fact, for these netizens, they also know that the quality of the products on the Pinduoduo platform is not up to par, and many of them are copycats. However, as long as the price of this product is cheap, it can be used after buying, as for whether the quality is good or not, and how many times it can be used, these are not the concerns of consumers.
Fourth, residents have become more frugal in grocery shopping
Nowadays, many residents go to the vegetable market to buy vegetables, mainly buying Chinese cabbage, cabbage, baby greens, carrots and other vegetables with a price of less than 5 yuan. Few people buy medium-to-high-end vegetables such as spinach, winter bamboo shoots, and leeks. In addition, the butcher stalls in the vegetable market are crowded with residents buying pork, while the more expensive beef and mutton stalls are rarely frequented.
It is worth mentioning that many residents now buy a limited amount of food, and they are worried that if they buy too much, they will not be able to eat it for a while, and it will be a pity to spoil it and throw it away. Obviously, the fact that residents are so frugal when it comes to buying groceries shows that there really isn't much money in everyone's pockets.
Fifth, the pressure to repay loans has increased
In the past, many people bought houses, and the proportion of monthly mortgage expenses in the total household income was 40%, and they could barely survive. After the epidemic, many people have reduced their income or lost their jobs, and the proportion of monthly mortgage expenses in the total household income is as high as 60%. In this way, it is difficult to maintain the original quality of life, let alone save money. As a result, people who take out a loan to buy a house can only solve this problem by reducing their quality of life. Families like this who need to pay off their mortgages must have little money.