In 2023, under the leadership of leading enterprises in the fields of energy and chemical industry in various countries, the construction of global water electrolysis hydrogen production projects will be significantly accelerated, the growth rate of hydrogen production capacity by water electrolysis will increase, and the new installed capacity of electrolyzers will hit a new high. In 2024, with the gradual implementation of subsidies for green hydrogen production in various countries and the tightening of carbon reduction policies in shipping and transportation, it is expected that the construction of global water electrolysis hydrogen production projects will begin to enter the stage of commercial development, with a larger number of projects and a larger scale of single projects, further accelerating the growth of global water electrolysis hydrogen production capacity, and creating more market demand for hydrogen production equipment.
01Driven by energy and chemical leaders in various countries, the world's new hydrogen production capacity by water electrolysis will increase by more than 204% year-on-year in 2023
In 2023, global hydrogen production by water electrolysis will enter a period of accelerated capacity growth. According to the statistics of New Energy Socialist, from January to December 2023, the new water electrolysis hydrogen production capacity in the world (including China) will be about 73,000 tons/year, a year-on-year increase of about 204%, and by the end of December 2023, the cumulative production capacity of water electrolysis in the world (including China) will reach about 167,000 tons/year. Among them, excluding China's rapidly growing production capacity in 2023, the newly built overseas (excluding China) water electrolysis hydrogen production capacity will be about 36,000 tons/year, a year-on-year increase of about 253%, and by the end of December 2023, the cumulative overseas (excluding China) water electrolysis hydrogen production capacity will reach about 89,000 tons/year.
In 2023, the global water electrolysis hydrogen production project will begin to develop towards large-scale and 10,000-ton scale. According to the statistics of New Energy Social Review, from January to December 2023, the number of newly completed water electrolysis hydrogen production projects in the world, the proportion of projects with hydrogen production capacity of more than 1,000 tons has increased significantly, from only about 12% in the same period of the previous year to 29%. Among them, at least 3 projects in the world will reach 10,000-ton hydrogen production capacity in 2023, the largest of which is Sinopec's Xinjiang Kuqa Green Hydrogen Project, with a hydrogen production capacity of about 20,000 tons/year and an electrolyzer installed capacity of 260MW. In addition, there are two hydrogen production capacity projects of 10,000 tons/year, namely China's Three Gorges Corporation's Inner Mongolia Narisong photovoltaic hydrogen production project with an installed electrolyzer capacity of 70MW, and the first phase of the green ammonia project in Camasari (designed capacity of 10,000 tons/year) of Unigel, Brazil's largest nitrogen fertilizer company, with an installed electrolyzer capacity of 60MW.
In 2023, the main promoters of the construction of global water electrolysis hydrogen production projects are leading enterprises and local governments in various fields in various countries. Among them, leading enterprises in the energy, chemical and transportation fields of various countries are the direct promoters, mainly based on the green transformation of their traditional businesses. For example, Sinopec's Xinjiang Kuqa green hydrogen project produces green hydrogen for Sinopec's Tahe refining to replace traditional natural gas to produce hydrogen, and Maersk, an international shipping leader, promotes the green hydrogen to methanol project of Aabenraa port in Denmark, which provides zero-carbon methanol fuel for Maersk's methanol ships. Secondly, the financial support of various countries is also an important factor in the promotion of water electrolysis hydrogen production projects, such as the green hydrogen replacement of traditional fuel metallurgy project built by Ovako, a leading Swedish steel company, with a green hydrogen production capacity of about 3,000 tons per year, of which the Swedish Energy Agency provides more than 30% of the construction funds.
From 2024 to 2025, with the increase of subsidies from various countries and the implementation of more large-scale projects, the international hydrogen production capacity of water electrolysis may continue to grow. On the one hand, there are many large-scale planned green hydrogen projects overseas, and there are nearly 50 10,000-ton water electrolysis hydrogen production projects around the world that have passed investment resolutions; on the other hand, the subsidy funds for green hydrogen production in the world, especially in European countries, are gradually in place, and the demand for zero-carbon fuels and zero-carbon raw materials in shipping, chemical and other fields is increasing, which may promote the implementation of a number of 10,000-ton projects in 2024. Based on the projections of project planning, subsidy progress, carbon markets and other aspects of various countries, under the optimistic scenario, the cumulative global green hydrogen production capacity (including China) may increase to about 1.4 million tons/year by the end of 2025, and by the end of 2030, the cumulative global green hydrogen production capacity may increase to about 16 million tons/year.
02 In 2023, the new installed capacity of global electrolyzers will increase by 176% year-on-year, and it may continue to grow from 2024 to 2025
Starting in 2023, the total installed capacity of new electrolyzers in the world will begin to transition from 100 megawatts to gigawatts. According to the research statistics of New Energy Socialist, from January to December 2023, the new installed capacity of hydrogen production electrolyzers in the world (including China) will be about 653MW, a year-on-year increase of about 176%, and the new installed capacity of hydrogen production electrolyzers in the world (excluding China) will be about 256MW, a year-on-year increase of about 112%. By 2024 and 2025, with the acceleration of the construction of hydrogen production capacity by water electrolysis in various countries around the world, the new installed capacity of electrolyzers in the world (including China) may continue to maintain growth, reaching about 2.9GW and 6GW respectively. From 2025 to 2030, taking into account factors such as off-grid hydrogen production and technological progress in electrolyzers, the new installed capacity of electrolyzers in the world (including China) may exceed 150GW.
In 2023, the new installed capacity of global electrolyzers will be mainly concentrated in Asia, and the proportion of new installed capacity in Europe and the United States from 2024 to 2025 may increase significantly.
Among them, in 2023, under the background of leading enterprises in Europe and the United States waiting for government financial subsidies and relatively few projects starting, the Asian region will be mainly supported by large-scale projects such as Sinopec's Xinjiang Kuqa Green Hydrogen Demonstration Project and the Three Gorges Group's Narisong Photovoltaic Hydrogen Production Project, accounting for about 62% of the world's new installed capacity.
From 2024 to 2025, with the participation of more leaders in the energy and chemical industry in Asia, such as China's China Energy Construction and State Power Investment Corporation and the Middle East country ACWA Power, the new installed capacity of electrolyzers will continue to grow significantly, while Europe, North America, Australia, etc., driven by subsidies in place, are expected to start a total of more than 2GW of projects intensively, and the proportion of new installed capacity in the world may increase to more than 50%.
If you still want to know about new energy hydrogen production, welcome to communicate with private messages!