Such a strong intervention, without a long white candle, can't solve the problem at all?

Author | Xie Xiaobai

Today, everyone should have breathed a sigh of relief and returned a mouthful of blood.

We are not bad today, the "lithium carbonate" layout yesterday, and the "pork" plate at the opening of today's bidding have all delivered good results.

But the market feels very bad, especially after 14 o'clock, the wind direction changes, if it is not for the end of the funds to buy resolutely, the market will probably close down.

If we look a little closer, we will see a sudden increase in short option buy orders, which fully illustrates:

There is still a very big divergence in the market.

This also means that the adjustment will continue.

But today, the end of the selling order increases, and the number of short buy orders increases, what is the situation?

01

For today's market stabilization, it is actually in our expectations, as early as Monday's draft I mentioned:

The real time to increase positions is likely to be on Thursday.

For no other reason, the foreign trade data will be released on Friday, and there is a "negative landing" expectation difference.

In any case, there is a gambling opportunity.

Especially today, there are two "grapevines", one is that foreign media broke the news that the RRR will be cut next Monday, and the other is that there is no source at all and the IPO is about to be suspended.

But today the market has begun to "act".

Directly over-cashing in on the "expected difference" is inevitably worrying......

What if the data falls short of expectations tomorrow?

In fact, everyone knows that there is a high probability that the foreign trade data for December will be very poor.

After all, this afternoon the leading indicators have been released:

According to Vietnamese customs data, the total import value in 2023 will be 326.37 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%;

The total export value in 2023 will be 354.67 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.

Vietnam has undertaken our industrial chain and is one of the most promising emerging markets for foreign investment in recent years.

It's ridiculously good, and the market should be more worried....... How much credit does the Bureau of Statistics have?

Based on this, the market began to realize that "it has been played" and tried to make up for it.

Therefore, we have seen a large increase in sell orders (mainly floating funds, as well as short-term funds), and a large increase in short selling funds (mainly institutions).

So, who is the capital to resolutely buy the disk protection, and what is his purpose?

We won't show it yet.

02

In fact, today's capital operation is as fierce as a tiger, and the disk is happy, with more than 4,000 companies rising, but take a closer look:

The trading volume is still in place! Even, the trading volume is still declining compared to yesterday.

This only proves that:

1. The institution is indeed prohibited from selling;

2. Everyone is trying in small steps, and no one dares to work fast, for fear that one day they will be allowed to sell, and if they run slowly, they will be smashed to collapse with a "bang".

If combined with the index ETF short buy orders start to explode, this all shows that:

Quite a lot of funds are still not at ease, and adopt a more prudent "hedging" strategy, so unconfident?

I really don't have confidence.

In fact, intervening in the capital market has always been one of the stupidest practices.

The stupidity of its method is no less than that of rice going up the mountain.

The reason is not complicated, it is not allowed to sell stocks, and the stock price can only rise and not fall?

03

Bloomberg once revealed that since the second half of last year, there have been restrictions on the net sale of stocks by public funds.

This is what we often call "window guidance".

And we saw it, all the way down.

Of course, this pot has been carried by "foreign capital".

Then just a few days ago, Reuters added a report that the reason why A-shares fell sharply at the beginning of this year was because the restriction policy on public funds that began in the second half of last year was temporarily relaxed.

So a bunch of stocks that public funds couldn't sell for half a year are now desperately thrown off, for fear that the door will be closed again in a few days.

Sure enough, it's closed again now!

But does it work to close the door? They also leave a "window" -- ETF short options.

In other words, this is equivalent to practicing the routine of "letting the leader go first" in the name of "protecting shareholders".

And the method is very rough, so rough that people with a little social experience think it's not a joke.

04

Let's assume that you now have 1 million worth of stocks in your hands, and then you receive a message that the mutual fund is now restricted from selling stocks, what do you think?

It's normal for people to run away.

Because you know that once the restrictions on public funds are lifted, there will be a large number of sell-offs, and the stock price will definitely be smashed down by them at that time.

So, you have to run before they do.

Coincidentally, this is also the idea of the institutions that withdrew from A-shares in the second half of last year, which ran slowly, and waited to take over from their peers.

If you don't, as long as you intervene in the market, the market will inevitably give a hard blow.

This is just like if there is force, there must be reaction, if there is positive energy, there must be negative energy, and if there is sunshine, there will be shadow.

Not only that, but intervention comes at a cost, and it's very costly.

05

The most terrible thing about the childish practice of intervening in the market is that it destroys the relationship of trust.

One will let you buy or not sell, and then you can sell again.....

This will be frightening, will this intervention be one step closer?

You can restrict public funds from selling stocks today, and do you want to restrict retail investors with large amounts from selling stocks tomorrow?

If the liquidity of the stock market cannot be guaranteed, then what is the difference between stocks and waste paper?

It seems to me that the signal it sends out by this intervention is very pessimistic.

On the one hand, it shows that the disk protection is unreliable, and there is really no money.

The disk can't be finished at all, so it can only rely on tricks and messes to let retail investors take over.

On the other hand, it shows that the level of the interveners is very low, so that people can see through the trick at a glance, and the character is very selfish, and he does not hesitate to let all the participants bear it for his own benefit.

This kind of practice, to be placed in foreign markets, is to break the rules of the game, belongs to the table.

From this point of view, is it wrong for fund managers to run when they have the opportunity?

Once the rules are broken, everyone looks like they are carrying a gun, and they don't run away, and the book is not read in vain?

06

At this time, look at it again, who is the fund to resolutely buy the disk protection at the end of today, and who may it be? What is his purpose?

The answer is already obvious.

"It is advisable to chase the poor with the remaining funds", and it is not easy to be tough, and you still don't play an exhibition game?

Their purpose is also very simple, not to seek no merit, but to seek no fault, to prove - I have worked hard, all blame them for their low consciousness, and they don't even take the initiative to protect the country!

Such a market is not chilling.

Everything is a bug, not tinkering, but covering up.

Just like some domestic manufacturers, the car shape created is exactly the same as Porsche, but it is also very similar...... And then declared: 10 million miles of the best XX.....

All I can say is that it's good to have confidence.

I agree with Lao Yu's logic, money can solve 90% of life's problems, and the remaining 10% of problems can't be solved with money.

Based on this, like Porsche is useless, profit and Porsche can speak for themselves.

In the same way, if the market wants to come out at the moment, it still needs a long white candlestick, but is this possible?

07

Coming back to our latest holdings, despite the shaky market, it still maintains some stability.

Why choose "lithium carbonate" + "pork"?

In fact, it is consistent with our previous logic, based on the macro interest rate cut cycle and the cyclical sector on the demand side.

Lithium carbonate has entered the right-hand rally phase due to the knock-on effect caused by Australia's production cuts.

In particular, it should be noted that our position in Tianqi Lithium broke through the big tombstone line on August 28, and the trend is gradually improving.

And the logic of today's newly opened "pork" sector is the same:

On the one hand, it is news-driven, African swine fever is on the rise, according to Radio Television Hong Kong, the destruction operation has been launched, and more than 1,700 pigs have been destroyed in the first phase.

On the other hand, the price of pork, which we track in our daily morning report, is still falling sharply, and there is a need to boost prices;

On the other hand, it is necessary to boost the CPI of residents, and raising pork prices is a necessary action.

Finally, the end of the year is approaching, and due to the impact of supply and demand, pork prices are also expected to increase.

Based on this, we carried out a round of sweeping of the pork sector during the bidding stage.

Off topic:

One day when I was 30 years old, I suddenly realized that I couldn't go back to my hometown.

That day, I received a video from my junior high school classmates about the changes that had taken place since I was a child.

The four archways, the Nine Heavens, have been transformed into antique streets that can be seen everywhere in the country.

The vendors along the street also disappeared cleanly, and the neat plaques made me in a trance, and then a great sadness welled up in my heart.

Tears fell uncontrollably, and at that moment, I felt as if I had lost my hometown.

The only connection with his hometown seems to have been severed.

It had been 11 years and 203 days since I last returned to my hometown.

But I was soon relieved that as a person who had lost his homeland and could not reach far, he should accept this outcome.

Let the past pass, let those good memories be there, and don't go back and destroy it.

At the age of 18, I longed for the distance, and at the age of 38, I thought of the wind in the wilderness, and the ankles wet with dew, which were still beautiful......

And I'm going to keep on the road, in fact, that's one of the prices I paid for choosing to "take control of my own destiny", far more than I ever imagined.

More often than not, we need to follow our fate and accept that we are being pushed wherever the tide is......

In this process, the only thing we can do is to maintain enough openness and honesty to ourselves, stick to some kind of coordinates, something that calms our hearts, and then fate will float forward like duckweed on a river.

Despite the bumps, there is its stability in the process.

Isn't this a life full of unknowns and beauty, worth looking forward to?

See all beings, see heaven and earth, and see yourself.

Life is like this, investment is the same, through the layers, there will be mistakes, there will be losses, there will be all kinds of unforeseen crazy situations in the process......

But I think that these "failures" and "setbacks" themselves are also part of the "journey".

Otherwise, how can memories be so beautiful?

Congratulations, I am Xie Xiaobai, who hopes that your wealth is free.

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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body: not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);-weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);-weui-tag-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(2501);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark], body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919; background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{ background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .4 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: 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#ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body: not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([ data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear: both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){{filter:brightness(.8)}}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}