Hot Spot: According to Danish media outlet ShippingWatch, a group of shipping companies sailing the Red Sea have now reached an agreement with the Houthis to allow them unimpeded passage through this vital water. The source confirmed that the two sides had indeed held meetings to ensure the passage of specific ships through the Red Sea safe and sound. It is reported that the Houthis demanded that, in return, shipping companies must guarantee that they do not carry Israeli goods and do not stop at Israeli ports.
In response, a Maersk spokesman said: "Maersk has not yet reached an agreement with the Yemeni Houthis to enter the Red Sea navigation." Hapag-Lloyd, a German shipping company, also said it would continue to avoid the Red Sea and sail around the Cape of Good Hope. Swiss logistics services company Dexun said its latest information is that the world's largest container shipping companies are still largely avoiding the Red Sea route.
On January 9, the container transportation index (European line) futures opened sharply lower, and the whole line fell in early trading, and the main EC2404 closed at 1773.4 points.
Industry insiders believe that the sharp fluctuations in the container shipping market are mainly affected by the news on the evening of January 8 about the agreement between airlines and the Houthis. It is understood that on the evening of January 8, overseas media released news that the head liner company and the Houthis privately contacted and signed an agreement not to attack the liner, but then Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd immediately responded that the matter was false, and some investors may have been misled by the news and there was a collective short sale.
In addition, judging from the spot quotations, the quotations of shipping companies have risen sharply after the fermentation of the Red Sea incident. According to the data, in the first half of January this year, shipping companies generally pushed up the freight rate of European base ports to 4500-5000 US dollars / large container, and pushed up the freight rate of the western route of the Mediterranean Sea to 5000-5500 US dollars / large container. As of January 8, the Shanghai container export freight index SCFIS continued to rise 70.9% to 2098.6 points, and the U.S. line also rose 8.4% to 1186.96 points.
Frontier observation: There is still nearly a month or so before the Spring Festival in 2024, and polyester factories are busy making a summary meeting for 2023 on the one hand, and on the other hand, they are considering production and operation arrangements during the Spring Festival.
As of last week, the comprehensive load of polyester was as high as 90.2%, and the operating rates of the three major products polyester direct-spinning filament, staple fiber and bottle flakes were 90.4%, 86.1% and 81% respectively, and the fiber was significantly higher than that of bottle flakes. Since the second half of 2023, the supply and demand pressure brought by the launch of new production capacity has been greater, and the old equipment has more actions to reduce and stop production, and the load from October to November once fell below 8 percent of the operation, and so far it is only around 8 percent.
After New Year's Day, the domestic business of downstream terminals has been fully weakened, and the main work in the next month is to collect payments, and the Spring Festival holiday has also begun to be put on the agenda.
According to the CCF survey, some enterprise workers have returned to their hometowns early, and the owner of a Shaoxing circular knitting machine company reported that half of the workers have returned to their hometowns. Other weaving companies have also received the same feedback, partly because some workers stayed in the country for the Chinese New Year due to the pandemic last year, and this year they tend to return to their hometowns early.
According to the current preliminary understanding, some water-jet weaving enterprises in Wujiang have been on holiday in advance because of the workshop transformation at the end of the year. In addition, most of the downstream texturing weaving enterprises in the region are concentrated in January 10-20 and have been on holiday. Some enterprises with orders in hand, including dyeing factories (mainly some foreign trade orders, need to be delivered at the end of the year and the beginning of the year) will have a later holiday time, generally around the 25th-30th.
According to the current planned holiday rhythm, the later downstream texturing weaving start-up decline will gradually accelerate, after mid-January will begin to appear large-scale holiday phenomenon, the remaining small part will adhere to the end of January, dyeing factory will be a little later.
Device dynamics
Dynamics of a PX unit in Southeast Asia
It is reported that a 1.5 million ton PX plant in Brunei has recently been restarted. The unit was phased out for maintenance on January 3.
A set of polyester plants in Wujiang is planned to be shut down for maintenance
A 100,000-ton polyester plant in Wujiang is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance from the 11th, and the plant will be equipped with the production of polyester filament yarn and chips, which is expected to restart around mid-February.
A set of polyester plant in Ningbo was changed to a shutdown and maintenance plan
A set of 500,000 tons of polyester plant in Ningbo was postponed to January 15 for maintenance, and restarted after the Spring Festival.
A MEG plant in Saudi Arabia is scheduled to restart
A 700,000 tons/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia is scheduled to restart in mid-to-late this month, and the specific follow-up will continue. There are no plans to restart the rest of the Saudi installations that are in the park.
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Industry dynamics
The third phase of the 3.2 million ton PTA project and supporting projects in Sanfangxiang started
Recently, with a total investment of more than 50 billion yuan, the third phase of the PTA project with an annual output of 3.2 million tons of polyester new material integration in Sanfangxiang and supporting projects started in Jiangyin Lingang Development Zone, which launched the "first shot" of major projects in Jiangyin in 2024, demonstrating the clear orientation and firm determination of the municipal party committee and the municipal government to grasp the project and grasp the big project in the new year.
The Sanfangxiang polyester new material integration project includes a total investment of 4.515 billion yuan with an annual output of 3.2 million tons of PTA main plant project, the third phase of the expansion of supporting finished product storage projects, supporting circulating cooling water projects and supporting public works and tank farm transformation projects, which will introduce the most advanced technology and technology in the world to build the first PTA production unit with an annual production capacity of 3.2 million tons in China. The project uses the stock land for construction, and is planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of this year, which can increase the annual sales revenue of 18 billion yuan and the annual tax revenue of 300 million yuan.
With a total investment of 35.7 billion yuan, Sinopec officially started this large refining and chemical project
On January 3, the 2024 commencement ceremony of major projects in Hunan Province was held simultaneously in Yueyang City, Yiyang City and Changsha City, among which Sinopec Yueyang 1 million tons of ethylene refining and chemical integration and refining supporting transformation project started at the main venue in Yueyang, with a total investment of 35.7 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 3.6 billion yuan, is the largest single investment industrial project in Hunan so far.
Hunan Petrochemical's 1 million tons/year ethylene refining and chemical integration project includes two parts: 1 million tons/year ethylene and oil refining supporting transformation. The project mainly adopts Sinopec's independent intellectual property rights and industry-leading green and low-carbon process technology, and the advantages of raw materials, technology and products are superimposed on each other, which will complement the complete industrial chain from crude oil processing to modern characteristic chemical industry in Yueyang area, and form an industrial pattern of "clean oil + modern chemical + new materials". After the project is completed and put into operation, it can drive downstream investment of more than 150 billion yuan, play an important role in promoting the rise of the central region and the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and help Hunan Province build a trillion-dollar modern petrochemical industry core base.
67.5 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan of industry leaders! There are also a number of cooperation involving the "local tyrants" in the Middle East
Rongsheng Petrochemical recently announced that in order to extend the industrial chain of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhongjin Petrochemical, further enhance the company's comprehensive competitiveness, and develop low-carbon olefin and green environmental protection industries, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Rongsheng New Materials (Zhoushan) Co., Ltd., plans to invest in the construction of Jintang New Materials Project, with a total investment of 67.5 billion yuan.
The project is backed by the "chemical raw material warehouse" - Zhoushan Green Petrochemical Base and Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical Base, with a solid foundation. Among them, Zhoushan Green Petrochemical Base has a refining capacity of 40 million tons/year, and Zhongjin Petrochemical has a production capacity of 1.6 million tons of PX and other downstream aromatic hydrocarbon products, using fuel oil and purchased naphtha as raw materials.
Relying on this, the Jintang New Materials Project will produce new material products including fine chemicals, high-end resins, engineering plastics, degradable plastics, special polyesters and high-end fibers.
The specific construction of the project includes 3 million tons/year catalytic cracking unit, 1 million tons/year gas separation unit, 600,000 tons/year aromatic hydrocarbon extraction unit, 300,000 tons/year PEO unit, 1 million tons/year EVA unit, 200,000 tons/year POE unit, 480,000 tons/year polyether polyol unit, 1.2 million tons/year ABS unit, etc.
On the same day, Rongsheng Petrochemical announced that it had signed a "Memorandum of Understanding" with Saudi Aramco. According to the memo, the two parties are discussing the proposed acquisition of a 50% stake in Saudi Aramco Jubail Refining & Chemical Company (SASREF) by Rongsheng Petrochemical (or its affiliates), and intends to increase production capacity and improve product flexibility, complexity and quality through expansion.
At the same time, the two parties are also discussing the potential acquisition of no more than 50% of CICC Petrochemical by Saudi Aramco, and jointly develop the upgrading and expansion of CICC Petrochemical's existing units and the development of a new downstream Rongsheng New Materials (Zhoushan) project.
According to the disclosure, from January to November 2023, the total amount of various related party transactions between Rongsheng Petrochemical and Saudi Aramco is 62.008 billion yuan. Aramco Overseas Company B.V., a wholly owned subsidiary of Saudi Aramco, holds 10% of the company's shares, and Saudi Aramco constitutes a related party of the Company pursuant to Rule 6.3.3 of the Rules Governing the Listing of Shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the transactions under the MOU constitute connected transactions of the Company.
Through the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding, the two parties are expected to further strengthen the daily communication, technology research and development and business cooperation between the two sides, and promote the realization of their respective strategic goals and long-term sustainable development.
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