Original title: In this global "election year", these elections may profoundly change the world
BEIJING, Jan. 10 (Xinhua) -- The curtain has opened on the international political stage in 2024. According to statistics, more than 50 countries and regions around the world will stage election dramas this year, and the elections of major countries such as the United States and Russia have affected the nerves of the world. 2024 could be the most elective year in history, covering nearly half of the world's population, making it a veritable "election year".
The election is of great significance to the political situation of these countries and has a far-reaching impact on the regional and world situation. Let's look ahead together——
US: Can a "ban on elections" stop Trump?
The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November. Currently, Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden is running for re-election, and former President Trump is significantly ahead of other Republican presidential candidates in the polls.
On January 15, the Republican caucus in central Iowa will officially kick off the presidential election. Polls show that Trump has a clear lead in the state, and the suspense may lie in how much he will win.
However, Trump's candidacy has been challenged in several states such as Colorado due to his involvement in the "Capitol Hill riot" on January 6, 2021. On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was not eligible for the party primary for the 2024 presidential election, and a similar decision was announced in Maine a few days later.
This is a file photo of then-US President Donald Trump attending a campaign rally in Latrobe, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 3, 2020. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie
Trump appealed to the Supreme Court on the 3rd for Colorado to disqualify him from the party primary, and the latter agreed to accept it on the 5th, and the result of his ruling will greatly affect this year's presidential election. The New York Times reported that pressure on the Supreme Court is mounting, and challenges to Trump's candidacy need to be addressed nationally as the primary approaches.
U.S. federal prosecutors have filed criminal charges against Trump on multiple counts in connection with the "Capitol Hill riot," but Trump has refused to plead guilty. The case will go to trial in March. In addition, Trump has been indicted in a number of other cases. The Time magazine article writes that these cases will shape the 2024 election in a way that the United States has never seen before.
Former U.S. Representative Greg Chusak of Iowa told Xinhua that the "Capitol Hill riots" will continue to spur political turmoil in the United States even as three years have passed, and he fears more violence in the United States in an election year. "This has already begun," Chusack said, adding that many state legislatures have been threatened with "bluffs" in recent days.
Russian public opinion: Putin is likely to be re-elected
The presidential elections in Russia will be held on March 15-17. According to Nikolai Blaev, deputy chairman of the Russian Central Election Commission, 11 people have been included in the list of potential candidates for the next president of Russia (that is, those who have been preliminarily nominated but have not yet been officially registered as presidential candidates by the Central Election Commission).
On December 8, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would participate in the 2024 presidential election at the Kremlin's "Heroes of the Fatherland Day" celebrations. After that, Putin submitted the registration documents for his participation in the presidential election to the Russian-Chinese Election Commission. At present, Putin's campaign website has also been officially launched. Russian public opinion generally believes that Putin is likely to win the re-election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the celebration of the Day of the Heroes of the Fatherland at the Kremlin in Moscow on December 8, 2023. Xinhua/TASS
According to a poll conducted by the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Research in December 2023, the Russian public's trust in Putin is 80%. At present, a number of senior Russian government officials, including United Russia chairman and former President Dmitry Medvedev, have made it clear that they support Putin's re-election bid.
Europe: European Parliament elections look at the "wind direction"
Elections to the new European Parliament will be held from 6 to 9 June. This will be the first European Parliament election after Brexit and is seen as a "weather vane" for European politics. Elections to the European Parliament are held every five years. More than 400 million voters in the EU's 27 member states will vote for around 700 MPs. The European Parliament is the legislative, oversight, budgetary and advisory body of the European Union. The nomination of the new President of the European Commission is subject to a vote of the European Parliament, and the President of the European Commission is equivalent to the EU's "head of government" and has a significant influence on the EU's internal and external decision-making.
The far-right in European politics maintained its upward momentum last year. Many experts in Europe are worried that the rise of far-right parties in many countries may affect this year's European Parliament elections.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (left) and then-European Council President Charles Michel hold a press conference after a special EU summit in Brussels, Belgium, May 31, 2022. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zheng Huansong
In addition to the European Parliament elections, the UK is also in the spotlight. Britain's opposition Labour Party and Liberal Democrats are urging a general election in May. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently said that his assumption is that a general election will be held in the second half of this year, during which there are still many things to deal with, including managing the economy, cutting taxes for the people, and continuing to solve the problem of illegal immigration.
The Financial Times reported that the Conservatives trailed Labour by an average of 18 percentage points in opinion polls. One hypothesis is that Sunak will wait until the autumn to hold a general election to give himself more time to improve the economy and win public opinion.
Mexico: First female president could be ushered in
Mexico will hold a new general election on June 2, and a new president will be inaugurated in October. Two women led the polls, with Claudia Hinbaum, the candidate of the coalition of the ruling National Regeneration Movement party, with more than 48 percent support, and Sochtel Galvez, the candidate of the political coalition of the Frente de l'Ixico Enlargement, with about 30 percent. None of the remaining candidates had a support rate of more than 10 per cent.
Hinbaum, 61, is a former climate scientist and is seen by the media as a "political protégé" of current President Andrés López. In 2018, she became mayor of Mexico City, where she focused on environmentally friendly infrastructure and the fight against crime.
The 60-year-old Galvez came from a poor background and became an entrepreneur through entrepreneurship, and after entering politics, he served as mayor of Mexico City and a federal senator. She has repeatedly opposed the policies adopted by the current government in areas such as traditional energy.
Mexican President Manuel López López attends a press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City, Mexico, June 6, 2022. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Francisco Cañedo)
In the past six years, the current President López's approval rating has remained above 60%. Analysts say that in less than half a year before the election vote, López's attitude and policies will affect the election results to a certain extent. In this year's election, Mexico is likely to have the country's first female president.
Indonesia: Three pairs "catch and fight"
Indonesia is scheduled to hold presidential elections on February 14-15. At present, the competition between the three pairs of presidential candidates has heated up.
The most vocal voices are Prabowo, the current defense minister and chairman of the Greater Indonesian Action Party, and Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran. Prabowo, 72, has served in the military for many years and was the son-in-law of Indonesian political strongman Suharto in the last century, losing to Jokowi in two consecutive presidential elections since 2014. Prabowo and the 36-year-old Gibran form of "old and young" is intended to highlight the image of Jokowi's political successor and win over Jokowi's die-hard fans and the younger generation.
Presidential candidate Prabowo shows his ink-soaked finger after voting at a polling station in Bogor, Indonesia, April 17, 2019. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Dedi)
This was followed by the former Governor of Central Java Ganjar and Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Political Security and Law Mafud, who were elected by the Democratic Party of Struggle caucus. The third pair is former Jakarta Capital Region Governor Anis and National Awakening Party President Mu Haimin, who were elected by the National Democratic Party caucus.
One of the highlights of this election is that in order to win the votes of young people, the three groups of candidates have expanded their field of competition to social platforms such as Douyin. Ganjar's verified TikTok account "People First" has 7.3 million followers, and the number of short videos posted has basically exceeded 10 million.
South Africa: The ANC is under multiple pressures
South Africa, a BRICS country, will also have a general election in 2024. South Africa's Independent Electoral Commission said the presidential and local government elections will be held between May and mid-August 2024. At present, South Africa has not yet announced a more specific election process and timeline, nor has it announced candidates for the 2024 general election.
In terms of electoral procedures, the Independent Electoral Commission officially launched the presidential and provincial government election procedures on 24 October 2023. Currently, voter registration is still ongoing, with a final round of voter registration to be held in February 2024.
On February 9, 2023, in Cape Town, the legislative capital of South Africa, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his 2023 State of the Union address. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Habiso Mkabela)
South Africa's current ruling party is the African National Congress (ANC), and it will be interesting to see if the ANC, which has been in power since the end of apartheid in 1994, can win the general election again. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said frankly that the 2024 general election will be unprecedentedly fierce, and the ANC will face great pressure and challenges. (Reporter: Xiong Maoling, Zhao Bing, Zhang Jing, Du Juan, Wu Hao, Xie Jiang, Ye Pingfan, He Yixuan (intern); editors: Wang Hongbin, Chen Dan, Wang Fengfeng, Wang Shen, Xu Liyu)
Source: Xinhua News Agency