For a long time, the rise and fall of housing prices has been the focus of social attention, and whether the decline in housing prices is beneficial to ordinary people has always been a hot topic of public discussion. However, one expert's voice subverted the conventional wisdom, pointing out that "people lose the most when housing prices fall." This point of view has aroused widespread concern and heated discussions in the society.
At the recently held 2023 "Financial Thinker of the Year" ceremony, Ruan Jia, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Beijing Jiaotong University, delivered a speech on the theme of "Is the lower the housing price, the better?", which attracted widespread attention. Professor Ruan pointed out that the impact of falling housing prices on the people is complex and far-reaching, and it can even be said that the people have lost the most from the fall in housing prices. This point of view has sparked heated discussions and provides us with a new perspective on the real estate market.
First, the economic pressure of falling housing prices on the people
In his speech, Professor Nguyen Jia analyzed in detail the direct economic impact of the fall in housing prices on the people. He pointed out that for many families, property is the main way to accumulate wealth, or even the vast majority of family wealth. Falling house prices mean that the value of household assets has shrunk, and the economic pressure has increased dramatically for those households with a high proportion of dependence on property. In addition, falling home prices may also lead to an increased risk of mortgage default, further increasing the financial burden on ordinary people.
Second, the impact of falling housing prices on the job market
Falling housing prices will not only affect household finances, but will have a knock-on effect on the job market as a whole. Professor Nguyen Jia pointed out that the prosperity of the real estate industry is often accompanied by the increase in employment opportunities, including the development of related industries such as architecture, design, and finance. However, these sectors tend to be hit hard when house prices fall, leading to massive job losses and job losses. For ordinary people, this means greater employment pressure and living difficulties.
Third, the impact of falling housing prices on the consumer market
In addition to the impact on the household economy and the job market, falling house prices can have a profound impact on the consumer market. Professor Nguyen Gah stressed that the decline in housing prices may lead to a decline in household consumer confidence, which will reduce daily consumption and investment. This reduction in consumer demand will further affect the normal operation of the entire economic system and reduce the overall economic vitality.
Fourth, policy-level response and thinking
Faced with the multiple challenges posed by falling house prices, policymakers need to take a more holistic and long-term view to develop coping strategies. Professor Ruan Jia suggested that the government should strengthen the supervision of the real estate market to ensure the stability of the market order, and at the same time, through measures such as improving the social security system and raising the income level of residents, to reduce the impact of falling housing prices on the people. In addition, the government should encourage diversified housing supply models to meet the housing needs of different levels and needs.
In the future, we hope that policymakers can fully absorb the opinions and suggestions of experts and formulate more scientific and reasonable real estate policies to protect the basic interests of ordinary people. At the same time, we also hope that all sectors of society can pay attention to this issue and form a joint force to jointly promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.
The expert, Zhang Wei (pseudonym), a doctor of economics, put forward his views at a recent seminar on the real estate market. He believes that the people are not the biggest beneficiaries of the fall in housing prices, but the biggest losers.
Dr. Zhang Wei explained that falling house prices will lead to a decrease in the overall value of the real estate market, which will directly affect the value of bank loans. Many homebuyers take out a loan to pay most of their home purchase when they buy a home. If house prices fall, the value of their loan will significantly exceed the actual value of the home, which means that their debt will increase significantly.
In addition, falling house prices will also lead to a break in the capital chain of many property developers, which will affect their construction and development plans. If the developer is unable to proceed with construction, then buyers who have already made an upfront payment are at risk of not being able to take possession of the property.
Dr. Zhang's views have been widely discussed. A netizen said: "I always thought that the drop in housing prices was good for us ordinary people, but after listening to Dr. Zhang Wei's explanation, I found that I was wrong. ”
However, there are also those who question Dr. Zhang's view. They believe that falling house prices will make it cheaper for home buyers to buy a home, which is good for ordinary people. In response, Dr. Zhang Wei said that falling house prices will indeed reduce the cost of home ownership for home buyers, but if the fall in housing prices leads to overall instability in the real estate market, then the losses for ordinary people will far outweigh the benefits they gain from falling house prices.
This incident has once again triggered people's thinking about the rise and fall of housing prices. Some industry insiders said that the rise and fall of housing prices is not a simple black and white problem, it involves many complex factors, including the economic environment, market supply and demand, financial policies, etc. Therefore, we need to understand and study the problem of housing prices more deeply in order to make correct judgments and decisions.
Dr. Zhang's views have triggered a new way of thinking about the decline in housing prices. The rise and fall of housing prices is not only related to the stability of the real estate market, but also related to the lives and interests of ordinary people. We need to understand and study the problem of house prices more deeply in order to better understand and respond to the rise and fall of house prices.
V. Conclusion
Professor Nguyen Gia's speech provided us with a perspective to re-examine the relationship between housing prices and people's livelihood. The fact that people lose the most from falling housing prices is not only an economic issue, but also a complex issue involving social equity and stability. In this context, we need to think more deeply about how to balance the development of the real estate market with people's livelihood and well-being to achieve more sustainable and inclusive economic growth.