The gap has widened to $9 trillion, and GDP can't catch up with the United States?

A very interesting phenomenon is that the mainland's economic growth rate is obviously higher than that of the United States, but the GDP gap is widening. In 2021, the GDP gap between China and the United States narrowed to $5.77 trillion, but in 2022 it widened to $7.74 trillion, a year when the mainland's GDP growth rate was 3% and the United States' was 2.2%.

In the first three quarters of 2023, the mainland's GDP increased by 5.2% year-on-year, the United States increased by 2.5% year-on-year, and the mainland's growth rate was more than twice that of the United States, and the difference in GDP between the two countries was 7.1 trillion US dollars, and if the fourth quarter is counted, the annual GDP gap is expected to exceed 9 trillion US dollars.

First of all, in 2022, the United States will push up inflation in the large-scale money printing, and the annual CPI will rise by 8%, a 40-year high, while the mainland CPI will only increase by 2%. Although the real growth rate of the United States is only 2.2%, the nominal growth rate is as high as 10.7%, which greatly pushes up the nominal GDP of the United States.

In 2023, the mainland's growth rate will be significantly ahead of the United States, but the GDP gap will widen, on the one hand, although the United States has pulled down the CPI through interest rate hikes, it is still above 3%, and inflation still exists. On the other hand, the US dollar has appreciated, and the RMB will depreciate by 4.55% in 2023, so when converted to US dollars, the mainland's GDP will be lower.

If the gap between GDP widens just because of CPI and exchange rates, then it's nothing. After all, the CPI will return to normal, the exchange rate will also fluctuate, and at the end of 2023, the yuan has already begun to rebound, and it is expected to continue to appreciate in 2024. As soon as the exchange rate changes, won't the gap narrow?

However, in order to maintain its lead, the United States has revised its GDP statistics method at every turn to increase its total GDP. For example, in the first half of 2023, the United States raised its GDP by $122.5 billion by adjusting its accounting rules. And in March and April 2022, it was also revised once.

The United States has engaged in a series of fancy operations in GDP statistics. So-called household production, such as stir-frying, cooking, sweeping and mopping, and weeding, are also included in GDP.

Earlier, lawyers' fees, second-hand car transactions, people's self-built houses, medical expenses, lawyer fees, prison fees, drug dealings, etc., were all added to GDP, and medical expenses alone increased by 4 trillion US dollars.

For example, on January 5, the United States announced that the number of non-farm payrolls increased by 216,000 in December, while at the same time, the increase of 150,000 in October was revised down to 100,000, a full 50,000 less, and from an increase of 200,000 to 170,000 in November. Is it really a child's play with statistics, a bit of real data?

In addition to using data to manipulate data, the United States also likes to engage in public opinion warfare. In the past few years, the mainland's economic data was relatively good, and various institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan predicted that China's GDP would surpass that of the United States, and the fastest was 2028. It really holds the heavens, and it seems that it is particularly optimistic about the economic development of the mainland.

However, in the past two years, affected by the epidemic, it has slowed down slightly, and it has begun to decline. The Japan Center for Economic Research, which previously predicted that it would be 2028, and later predicted that China would never be able to surpass the United States, is really a joke.

Looking at the media CNN in the United States, it clearly knows that the mainland will be able to complete the 5% growth target in 2023, but it released an article titled "China's economy has experienced a miserable year", which is really a lie, and it also predicts that from 2024, the mainland's economic growth rate will continue to decline, and gradually decline to 3.5% by 2028.

Since 2023, there have been endless voices of decline, first raising growth expectations, and then smearing the situation on the grounds of "falling short of market expectations", so as to undermine domestic and foreign confidence in China's economy and China's development, which can be said to be sinister.

In fact, you will find that the West has always been engaged in this prediction, that prediction, we have always focused on our own development, and have never set any timetable, and the domestic non-governmental organizations have hardly predicted when they will surpass the United States.

In fact, in terms of purchasing power parity, China has long surpassed the United States, even the International Monetary Fund has said it. Do you say that if foreign capital doesn't come, it won't come? What's wrong? Is the market of 1.4 billion people, with a per capita GDP of more than $12,000, not as attractive as the market of more than $2,000? Do you say that if you don't buy it, you will buy it? Do you want to buy more expensive goods instead of goods with extremely high per capita efficiency and high quality and low prices?

Some advantages are not so easy to replace, the second largest economy in the past was far away from the United States, and today's second largest economy is completely different, and no one can stop its progress.