Reporter: Li Xing Editor: Pei Jianru
On January 9, the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that in 2023, the cumulative retail sales of domestic passenger cars will be 21.699 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Among them, in December 2023, the retail sales volume of the domestic passenger car market was 2.353 million units, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year and 13.1% month-on-month.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, believes that in December 2023, the domestic auto market promotion will be strengthened in intensity and breadth, affecting almost all manufacturers and all models, showing the characteristics of a historically rare year-end afterburner promotion sprint. Superimposed by the Ministry of Commerce, the "Hundred Cities Linkage" Auto Festival and the "Thousands of Counties and Towns" new energy vehicle consumption season activities have shown the effect, and the consumption promotion policies in many places have continued to exert force, and the joint efforts of corporate promotions will constitute a stable support for the auto market at the end of the year.
Source: Passenger Association, Wind (Wind), Cinda Securities Yang Jing Drawing, Visual China Map
The Passenger Association said that 2023 will be a year for Chinese automobiles to "create miracles", with total vehicle sales (including passenger cars and commercial vehicles) exceeding 30 million, showing the strong potential and market development space of the automobile industry. With the continuous contribution of electrification transformation and export growth, it will be a trend for China's annual automobile production and sales to exceed 40 million units in the future.
Looking forward to the first quarter of 2024, Cui Dongshu predicts that the auto market will perform well, and the sales volume of the auto market before the Spring Festival can still achieve year-on-year growth, especially new energy vehicles are the growth focus of various car companies.
Automobile exports have jumped to the first place in the world
In 2023, independent brands will perform well. According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, the annual retail market share of self-owned brand vehicles was 52%, an increase of 4.6 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, in December 2023, the retail sales of self-owned brand vehicles were 1.24 million units, an increase of 17% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, and the market share reached 52.9%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year.
In terms of luxury brands, in December 2023, the segment sold 320,000 units, up 23% year-on-year and 18% month-on-month. Compared with luxury brands and domestic brands, the performance of mainstream joint venture brands was weak. In December 2023, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands were 790,000 units, down 7% year-on-year and up 20% month-on-month. Among them, the share of German brands was 20.5%, unchanged year-on-year, the share of Japanese brands was 16.5%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the share of American brands was 7.3%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year.
From the perspective of the retail sales ranking of domestic passenger car manufacturers in 2023, among the top four manufacturers, self-owned brand car companies occupy three seats, BYD ranks first with an annual retail sales of 2.706 million units, followed by FAW-Volkswagen (1.847 million units), Geely Automobile (1.412 million units) and Changan Automobile (1.383 million units) in third and fourth place, respectively.
For the excellent performance of independent brands, Cui Dongshu believes that this is mainly due to the obvious increase in the new energy market and export market of domestic car companies, among which the transformation and upgrading performance of the head mainstream car companies is more prominent.
It is worth noting that in 2023, China's auto export sales will hit a record high. According to the statistics of the China Passenger Car Association, in 2023, the export of passenger cars in mainland China (including complete vehicles and CKD, which means full bulk parts) will be 3.83 million units, a year-on-year increase of 62%. Exports of new energy vehicles increased by 430,000 units to 1.04 million units, and gasoline vehicles (GASOLINE vehicles) increased by 1.04 million units to 2.79 million units.
According to the customs data compiled by the China Passenger Car Association, China's automobile exports have reached the first place in the world in terms of volume and value. In January ~ November 2023, China's automobile exports reached 4.76 million units, with an export growth rate of 60%. "According to the export trend in December of each year, under normal circumstances, China's annual automobile exports can reach 5.26 million units. On the other hand, the export volume of Japanese automobiles in January~November 2023 is 3.99 million units, and the export volume for the whole of 2023 is expected to be 4.3 million units. Cui Dongshu said that in 2023, China's auto exports will surpass Japan and rank first in the world.
As for the reasons for the surge in China's automobile exports, the Passenger Association explained that the quality of self-owned brand fuel vehicles has improved and become intelligent, which has brought about an improvement in competitiveness. At the same time, self-owned brand cars lead the international trend of electric vehicles and open up a new blue ocean in overseas markets. Thanks to the high unit price and good profits of exports, independent brands have also obtained large profits by relying on exports, sharing the cost pressure of domestic sales, and these factors have promoted the jump in China's automobile exports.
NEV sales up 36.3%
In addition to exports, new energy vehicles are another important fulcrum for the growth of the domestic auto market.
In 2023, the cumulative wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China will be 8.864 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.3%, and the penetration rate will be 34.7%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from 28.1% in 2022.
Among them, in December 2023, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.108 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, a month-on-month increase of 15.3%, and a penetration rate of 40.8%, an increase of 7 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Specifically, the penetration rate of NEVs of domestic brands was 59.3%, that of luxury vehicles was 33.2%, and that of mainstream joint venture brands was only 7.4%.
With the simultaneous development of self-owned brand car companies on the new energy technology route, the market base continues to expand. In December 2023, 21 companies sold more than 10,000 units in wholesale sales (up 3 month-on-month and 8 year-on-year), accounting for 92.8% of the total number of NEV passenger vehicles (88.8% in November 2023 and 80.3% in the same period last year). Among them, BYD ranked first with a monthly sales of about 340,100 units, while Tesla China (94,100 units), which had been in second place before, was overtaken by SAIC-GM-Wuling, which sold about 117,500 units, and retreated to third place.
Among the mainstream joint venture brands, "North and South Volkswagen" leads strongly, with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in December 2023 of about 30,500 units, accounting for about 50.2% of the mainstream joint venture pure electric vehicles. "This shows that Volkswagen's determined electrification transformation strategy is beginning to bear fruit, and other joint ventures and luxury brands still need to be developed. Cui Dongshu said.
Cui Dongshu predicts that China's wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach 11 million units in 2024, with a net increase of 2.3 million units, and plug-in hybrid models and range extender models will become the main driving force for the growth of the new energy vehicle market.
Looking ahead, the Federation pointed out that there will be 22 working days in January 2024, four more than the 18 working days in January 2023. Passenger cars are consumer goods, and the consumption time before the holiday is long, and the consumption pull will be more sufficient. The effective production and marketing time in January is very long, and the effect of a good start will be prominent, so 2024 is a big year for consumption. China is still a country with a low penetration rate of only 195 passenger cars per 1,000 people at the end of 2022, and China, as the world's automobile factory, has a huge potential new buyer group. (Xi student Gu Xueqi also contributed to this article)
National Business Daily