Has the 0102 New Year's Eve market opened?
【Introduction】
The end of the year and the beginning of the year is the key node of investment layout, as a "time window", what are the characteristics of the New Year's Eve market over the years, how will it be interpreted this year, and how should investors layout?
Has the New Year's Eve market opened?
The end of the year and the beginning of the year have always been the "window of time" that investors pay close attention to. With the "restlessness" of A-shares at the end of the year, many investors have begun to care: what are the characteristics of the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year? How will it be interpreted this year?
Take history as a mirror: there may be a market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, "value to set up a stage, grow up and sing"
Referring to historical data, there is a high probability that A-shares will have an upward trend at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Looking back at the 15 years since 2008, the A-share market has risen without exception, but the start time is sooner or later, and the duration is short.
In terms of launch time, it is mostly from November to January of the following year. The earliest was in 2009, which started to rise at the end of September, and the latest was in 2015, and the market did not officially start until the end of January 2016.
In terms of duration, the time span of the year-end and New Year market ranges from one month to four months. The shortest was at the end of 2019, which lasted only 31 trading days due to the impact of public health prevention and control, and the longest was at the end of 2014, when a unilateral bull market was directly opened at the end of the year.
Overview of the year-end and New Year holidays since 2008
Note: "Year-end and New Year's holidays" selects the interval from the Shanghai Composite Index as the backtest target, and selects the time period from the stage low to the stage high from the fourth quarter of the current year to the first quarter of the next year.
Source: Wind, refer to Industrial Securities Research Report "2008-2022: 15-year Year-end and New Year Market Review and Outlook", 2023.10.27
More importantly, the market in this period often shows the characteristics of "value on the stage, growth and singing". Historically, the growth style usually has the best growth performance in the first quarter, and the performance in the fourth quarter is second only to the first quarter, which shows that the fourth quarter or a better window for the layout of the growth sector.
Source: Wind, refer to Industrial Securities Research Report "2008-2022: 15-year Year-end and New Year Market Review and Outlook", 2023.10.27
Looking ahead: Multiple positive factors are gathered, and improved sentiment is expected to help growth valuations recover
Although the timing and duration of the launch vary, the regular opportunity of the year-end and New Year market cannot be ignored. Standing at the current point in time, how should we view the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year? Is the growth sector still worth allocating?
Institutional analysis believes that from the current market environment, multiple positive factors are gathering, in the internal and external environment shows positive changes in the resonance, the A-share market is expected to attract global capital inflow, ushered in a volatile upward repair market, the current point in time can pay attention to the ChiNext 200 ETF Yinhua (159575) investment opportunities.
Good (1): The current U.S. interest rate is at a high level, and a rate cut in 2024 will be a high probability event. Against the backdrop of expected U.S. interest rate cuts, this is positive for global stock markets.
Good (2): According to data from relevant departments, the profit data of industrial enterprises above designated size in the mainland continued to rebound in November, with marginal improvements in revenue growth and profit margins, boosting market confidence. With the continuous promotion of stable growth policies, the mainland's macro economy is expected to continue to recover and stabilize in 2024.
Positive (3): The current A-share valuation has reached the historical bottom area. Wind data shows that as of December 29, 2023, the latest PE of the Wind All A Index is 16.67 times, which is at the 22.69% quantile from low to high in the past decade.
Wind All A Index PE trend in the past ten years
Data source: Wind, statistical period: 2014.1.2 to 2023.12.29; Opinion information refers to the research report of Galaxy Securities "The haze will eventually dissipate, optimistic about the "New Year's Eve market"", 2023.12.29
Under the premise of the overall market environment, institutions are still optimistic about the valuation repair of growth sectors in the context of policy support and improved sentiment. According to the analysis, the important meeting in 2023 will once again take the science and technology strategy as the first task of the year, and the expression of science and technology policy will be more active and systematic, superimposed on the shift of US monetary policy and the peak and fall of US bond interest rates, the growth valuation is expected to benefit from the increase, and the growth of science and technology is expected to become the main line of follow-up investment. (Reference: Guohai Securities Research Report "The Impact and Investment Opportunities of the Economic Work Conference", 2023.12.17)
For investors, it is key to choose industries and individual stocks with growth potential for layout. In this context, the Venture 200 has attracted much attention as a growth index.
The industry distribution of the constituent stocks of the GEM 200 Index
Data source: Wind, Shenwan Level 1 Industry Classification, as of 2023.12.29
The index focuses on small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises, mainly covering the leaders and backbones of high-growth strategic emerging industries. As the first batch of ChiNext 200 ETFs in the whole market, ChiNext 200 ETF Yinhua (159575) has officially landed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on January 2, providing investors with a new ideal tool for the layout of small and medium-capitalization science and technology enterprises, and helping to grasp the investment opportunities in the growth sector at the end of the year and the beginning of the year!
The returns of the Venture 200 Index from 2019 to 2023 are 32.84%, 17.37%, 28.07%, -25.30%, and 5.52% respectively; Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Zhang Yichi's resume: Master's degree. He used to work in the E-banking Center of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Beijing Branch. He joined Yinhua Fund in October 2015 and has served as an assistant quantitative researcher, quantitative researcher, and assistant fund manager in the quantitative investment department, and is currently the fund manager of the quantitative investment department. He used to be the fund manager of Shenzhen 100 ETF Yinhua (2021.5.25-2023.9.27), Science and Technology Innovation ETF (2021.5.25-2023.9.27), Nonferrous Metals ETF (2022.6.20-2023.9.27), and Robot ETF Fund (2022.11.21-2023.12.19).
The funds under management are as follows: Small Cap Value ETF (from 2021.5.25), Yinhua Juchao Small Cap Value ETF Initiator Connection A (from 2021.5.25), Yinhua Juchao Small Cap Value ETF Initiator Connection C (2022.8.10), Yinhua Huazheng ESG Leading Index (from 2021.11.23), Agriculture 50 ETF (from 2022.6.20), Film and Television ETF (from 2022.6.20), Real Estate ETF ( From 2022.11.21), VRETF (from 2022.11.21), 500 Value (from 2023.4.7), Low Carbon ETF (from 2023.7.11), Yinhua SSE STAR Market 100 ETF (from 2023.9.6), Yinhua CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (from 2023.12.1), Yinhua SSE STAR Market 100 ETF Connect A/C (from 2023.12.4), Yinhua ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 ETF ( From 2023.12.20).
The performance of the funds managed by Zhang Yichi is as follows:
Small-cap value ETF was established on December 6, 2019, and the net value growth rate in 2020, 2021, 2022, and since the effective date of the fund contract is 12.06%, 22.91%, -13.92%, and 23.76%, respectively, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is 13.57%, 20.51%, -16.15%, and 24.63%, respectively.
Yinhua Juchao Small Cap Value ETF Initiator Connection A was established on February 3, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -13.41% and 9.80%, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -15.30% and 6.29%.
Yinhua Juchao Small Cap Value ETF Initiator Feeder C was established on August 10, 2022, and has a net value growth rate of -0.80% since the effective date of the fund contract, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -2.37%.
Yinhua China Securities ESG Leading Index was established on November 19, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -16.10% and -15.86%, respectively, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -17.52% and -16.53% respectively.
Launched on December 10, 2020, the net value growth rate of Agriculture 50 ETF in 2021, 2022, and since the effective date of the fund contract is 3.44%, -15.89%, and -22.55%, respectively, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is -3.11%, -17.02%, and -29.42%, respectively.
The film and television ETF was established on February 9, 2021, and in 2022, since the effective date of the fund contract, the net value growth rate is -25.00% and -13.85%, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is -26.38% and -17.55%.
VRETF was established on July 29, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -43.75% and -29.30%, respectively, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -45.00% and -28.37%, respectively.
The real estate ETF was launched on January 27, 2022, and has a net value growth rate of -26.09% since the effective date of the fund contract, compared to a performance benchmark of -29.76% over the same period.
The low-carbon ETF was established on December 20, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -24.61% and -39.51%, respectively, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -25.98% and -43.98% respectively.
Tan Yuefeng's resume: Bachelor's degree. He used to work in Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. Beijing Branch. He joined Yinhua Fund in August 2012 and has served as an assistant quantitative researcher and fund manager assistant in the quantitative investment department, and is currently a fund manager in the quantitative investment department. The funds under management are as follows: Shenzhen 100 ETF Yinhua (from 2021.12.29), Yinhua Huazheng ESG Leading Index (from 2021.12.29), Yinhua Juchao Small Cap Value ETF Initiator Connection A (from 2021.12.29), Small Cap Value ETF (from 2021.12.29), Technology Innovation ETF (from 2021.12.29), Agriculture 50 ETF (from 2022.6.20), Film and Television ETF (from 2022.6.20), Nonferrous Metals ETF (from 2022.6.20), Yinhua Juchao Small Cap Value ETF Connect C (from 2022.8.10), CSI 300 Growth ETF (2022.9.1), Robot ETF Fund (from 2022.11.21), VRETF (from 2022.11.21), Real Estate ETF (from 2022.11.21), CSI 300 Value ETF (from 2022.12.29), Chemical Industry ETF ( From 2023.7.11), Yinhua ChiNext MidCap 200 ETF (from 2023.12.20).
The performance of the funds under management is as follows:
Small-cap value ETF was established on December 6, 2019, and the net value growth rate in 2020, 2021, 2022, and since the effective date of the fund contract is 12.06%, 22.91%, -13.92%, and 23.76%, respectively, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is 13.57%, 20.51%, -16.15%, and 24.63%, respectively.
The technology innovation ETF was established on November 1, 2019, and the net value growth rate in 2020, 2021, 2022, and since the effective date of the fund contract is 58.00%, 11.26%, -26.51%, and 30.80%, respectively, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is 60.58%, 6.36%, -27.85%, and 26.24% respectively.
Shenzhen 100 ETF Yinhua was established on June 28, 2019, and the net value growth rate in 2020, 2021, 2022, and since the effective date of the fund contract is 48.27%, -0.90%, -25.19%, and 13.15%, respectively, and the benchmark rate of return for the same period is 49.58%, -1.27%, -26.13%, and 12.80% respectively.
Yinhua China Securities ESG Leading Index was established on November 19, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -16.10% and -15.86%, respectively, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -17.52% and -16.53% respectively.
Yinhua Juchao Small Cap Value ETF Initiator Connection A was established on February 3, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -13.41% and 9.80%, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -15.30% and 6.29%.
Yinhua Juchao Small Cap Value ETF Initiator Feeder C was established on August 10, 2022, and has a net value growth rate of -0.80% since the effective date of the fund contract, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -2.37%.
The non-ferrous metal ETF was established on March 10, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -18.84% and 1.31%, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is -19.22% and 1.00%.
Launched on December 10, 2020, the net value growth rate of Agriculture 50 ETF in 2021, 2022, and since the effective date of the fund contract is 3.44%, -15.89%, and -22.55%, respectively, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is -3.11%, -17.02%, and -29.42%, respectively.
The film and television ETF was established on February 9, 2021, and in 2022, since the effective date of the fund contract, the net value growth rate is -25.00% and -13.85%, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is -26.38% and -17.55%.
The CSI 300 Growth ETF was launched on September 1, 2022, and the net value growth rate since the effective date of the fund contract is -20.17%, and the benchmark return is -22.03% over the same period.
The robot ETF fund was established on September 22, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -30.69% and -13.64%, respectively, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -31.76% and -17.24% respectively.
VRETF was established on July 29, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -43.75% and -29.30%, respectively, and the performance benchmark for the same period is -45.00% and -28.37%, respectively.
The real estate ETF was launched on January 27, 2022, and has a net value growth rate of -26.09% since the effective date of the fund contract, compared to a performance benchmark of -29.76% over the same period.
Launched on December 29, 2022, the CSI 300 Value ETF has grown by 5.37% in net value since the effective date of the fund contract, and the benchmark return for the same period is 4.06%.
The chemical industry ETF was established on December 7, 2021, and the net value growth rate in 2022 and since the effective date of the fund contract is -25.13% and -38.53%, and the benchmark return rate for the same period is -26.89% and -40.34%.
(Source: Fund's periodic reports; As of September 30, 2023)
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