Late today, the U.S. began to enter the January 8 work session, with a number of significant developments in Bitcoin spot ETFs. Bitcoin quickly and slightly rallied back above $45,000, and the market was volatile again.
At present, there are less than 48 hours left before the ETF reaches its final result. At the time of ETF passing, the market consensus is that there will be huge fluctuations, regardless of whether it rises or falls. Bitcoin spot ETF is just a kick in the door.
Odaily星球日报整理今日最新进展如下:
Today's ETF application update
Hashdex may not be the first to pass
As previously reported, the SEC had required all Bitcoin ETF issuers to file updated filings with the SEC by 8:00 ET. For now, the deadline has passed.
With the exception of Hashdex, all other ETF applicants such as Grayscale, Ark/21 Shares, Blackrock, BitWise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, Valkyrie, Franklin, and others have filed updated S-1 filings (or S-3 filings in the case of Grayscale).
Hashdex's most recent submission was December 26, 2023, which is the deadline for this update.
The vote is imminent, when will it land?
The first stage of approving a spot Bitcoin ETF is the signing of 19 b-4 documents by the SEC. The SEC then needs to approve the issuer's S-1 petition, and if both are approved, the ETF can technically begin trading the next business day.
At present, the final amendments to the issuer's documents have been completed, and the SEC members are likely to vote on them in the next phase.
Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg, said there is no agenda on the SEC's public agenda until Jan. 11, but the SEC can use its delegation policy to make decisions.
This means that we still do not know the exact timing of the most important agenda item, "a vote", which may take place.
ETF fee price war?
In a series of filings, several ETFs, including BlackRock, WisdomTree, and VanEck, have disclosed their own fees. And the cost of each one is quite interesting. (See the above picture for details)
Previously, Grayscale set the fee at 2%, which has been reduced to 1.5% according to Grayscale's latest Bitcoin spot ETF S-3 update file. But compared to the competition, Grayscale is still the most expensive ETF. However, there is a clause on fee waiver. In addition, Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF fees have not been finalized, and Grayscale may further reduce its ETF fees.
Take BlackRock, the most talked-about example, which adjusted ETF fees to 0.3% in its latest filing. Bloomberg analyst Balchunas believes that this is lower than previously predicted and will make it more difficult for other competitors to compete in the situation.
而 ARK 则在看准时机果断降价。
In November 2023, Ark's initial SEC filings showed that fees on its ETFs were as high as 0.8%. 20 minutes after BlackRock filed its ETF update file, ARK's update file showed that the fee had been reduced to 0.25%. This move may have kicked off a price war.
After this round of fee adjustment, the pattern of fee competition has changed.
Fidelity, for example, has a fee rate of 0.39%, which was the cheapest level in the initial version submissions from issuers, but is now suddenly rising to a mid-range level.
Options trading volume skyrocketed, and ETF speculation began
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the whole network has liquidated $231 million, BTC has been liquidated by $25.96 million, ETH has been liquidated by $24.24 million, long orders have been liquidated by $173 million, and short orders have been liquidated by $58.12 million.
At present, the contract position is gradually rising, and the BTC network has a total position of 428,400 BTC, worth about $19.254 billion. CME has the largest holdings, with 122,400 BTC, or about $5.492 billion. Binance holds 97,600 BTC, worth about $4.385 billion. Bybit holds 76,200 BTC worth about $3.420 billion.
Greeks.live Adam, a macro researcher, said that the results of the Bitcoin spot ETF review are about to be settled, and the market generally believes that it will pass smoothly.
Adam further stated that BTC is back at a short-term high of $45,000, spurred by the constant positive news. The current 12-day at-the-money IV is already as high as 110%, and the 11-day at-the-money IV is as high as 120%, and the IV is up nearly 20% again after today's settlement.
Options trading volume has also risen sharply.
Deribit data shows that the most traded BTC options today are those expiring on January 12, which may be related to the expectation of approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. Trading volume (notional value) of $165.7 million for puts and $157.7 million for calls indicates active market activity.
Although no one knows the final outcome of the ETF, and this event is almost impossible to predict. However, various analysts, investors, and other major market participants have given their own forecasts.
James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg ETF, said that the current probability of approval of spot bitcoin ETFs may be more than 90%, and Eric Balchunas, another analyst at Bloomberg ETFs, said that he believes that the current probability of approval of spot bitcoin ETFs may be 95%, although some extreme cases cannot be completely ruled out.
BlackRock has given its ETF an "official forecast" in a sense. BlackRock expects its Bitcoin spot ETF to receive SEC approval next Wednesday, according to Fox Business Channel.
In the on-chain world, predictions are also in full swing. In the "Will Bitcoin be approved by January 15" question on the prediction market Polymarket, 85% of the funds went to the "yes" option, and only 15% chose "no". More than $3.3 million has been forecasted.