Is Charlie Munger's investment strategy still effective? Even he himself is not sure

Introduction: Value investing has underperformed during periods of low interest rates for a long time. Warren Buffett's partners warned investors that they should be "Xi to making less profits."

According to the Wall Street Journal, Charlie Munger has had a profound impact on investors, and no one has been influenced by him more than Berkshire Hathaway's partner Warren Buffett.

Munger's death not only left a vacancy at Berkshire's top management, but also raised the question of how his style of value investing might evolve at a time when it is harder to find quality companies at fair prices.

Munger encouraged Buffett to pay higher prices for high-quality businesses, channeling his initial interest in the cheapest stocks. Together, they built Berkshire into a huge conglomerate with a huge stock portfolio and became one of the two most legendary investors of all time.

Many investors agree that the ultra-low interest rate environment in the years following the 2008 financial crisis led growth stocks to outperform value stocks, which are often considered undervalued stocks as measured by various financial metrics.

Lower interest rates have lowered the cost of borrowing for businesses, accelerating their growth. It also makes equities more attractive relative to low-risk assets such as government bonds, but tends to boost the share prices of companies that grow in the future more than value stocks with low valuations.

Some are now questioning whether value stocks will be able to thrive anytime soon as the Federal Reserve System says it will start cutting interest rates this year.

A few months before his death, Munger acknowledged that the traditional field of value investing had been fully exploited. He said the "low-hanging fruits" had been plucked. He advises investors to have little choice but to own some highly-valued tech giant stocks to keep up with the market.

Speaking at the 2023 Berkshire shareholder meeting, Munger said: "I think it's going to be more difficult for value investors right now because a lot of them are competing for limited opportunities. "My advice is that value investors should gradually Xi making less profits. ”

However, many of Munger's students remain true to his investment strategy, which is to identify the fundamental value of a business and invest on a large scale when an opportunity arises.

Warren Buffett learned the art of buying stocks of mid-range companies that are traded at a discount, which he learned from Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, who was also his teacher at Columbia Business School.

For example, in 1958 and 1959, Warren Buffett bought shares in Sanborn Map, a company with a weak map business but a portfolio worth about $65 in shares and a stock price of $45. Under Buffett's lobbying, Sanborn, who had become a director, agreed to use his portfolio to buy out shareholders in 1960. According to Roger Lowenstein in the book Warren Buffett: The Making of American Capitalism, Buffett made about 50% of the profits.

The so-called "cigar tip" approach was later considered by Buffett to have a major weakness because it did not work well when investing large sums of money and was not the right foundation for building a lasting business. He credits Munger for changing his investment strategy and steering Berkshire in the right direction.

In a 2015 letter celebrating his 50th anniversary at the helm of the company, Buffett wrote, "The blueprint he gave me was simple: forget the idea of buying quality companies at fair prices, and buy quality companies at fair prices." ”

Today, Berkshire is the seventh-largest company in the U.S. by market capitalization, operating a variety of businesses, from Geico to BNSF Railroad to See's Candies, which were acquired by Buffett and Munger using the principles of value investing. In addition, Berkshire has more than $150 billion in cash and more than $300 billion in equity portfolios, including well-known companies such as Coca-Cola, American Express, and Bank of America.

In Buffett's annual shareholder letter, he emphasizes the importance of a small percentage of successful investments. Berkshire spent $1.3 billion in the '80s and '90s to buy shares in Coca-Cola, which are now worth about $24 billion and generate more than $700 million in dividends a year. Berkshire's purchase of American Express was also largely completed in 1995 at a cost of $1.3 billion. The shares are currently worth more than $28 billion and generate more than $300 million in dividends annually for Berkshire.

Berkshire's share price has outperformed the market by a wide margin. In the 40 years to 2023, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 2,800% in terms of price, while Berkshire has risen more than 41,000%, according to FactSet. In 2023, Berkshire became the most weighted component of the Russell 1000 Value Index.

Among stock pickers looking for undervalued stocks, Munger's value investing approach dominates. Prominent practitioners of the style say it has evolved from the early days of identifying cheap stocks. In an age where millions of investors have access to the same information, it becomes difficult to be the first to spot cheap stocks with great potential.

Mario Gabelli, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Gamco Investors, said: "The approach to value investing has changed. You can't buy the so-called 'cigar tills' anymore, they've already been picked. Mario Gabelli, a longtime stock-picking value investor, purchased Berkshire's Class A stock in 1985 for about $2,000 per share through his Gabelli Asset Fund. Today, the shares are trading at more than $550,000.

Li Lu, founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital, said Munger had helped change the way investment philosophy was practiced. Munger had entrusted him with managing his family's roughly $88 million in money and had seen him as the go-to candidate to manage Berkshire's portfolio.

"He is more responsible than anyone else, and even Warren would admit that he changed the principles of value investing from simply buying cheap securities to holding quality businesses for the long term. Li Lu said.

In 2002, Mr. Li invested in BYD, a Chinese battery and electric car maker, and later introduced the company to Munger. By 2008, Berkshire had invested about $230 million in BYD. As of 2021, Berkshire's holdings have appreciated to $7.7 billion. Today, BYD, like Tesla, ranks among the top in global electric vehicle sales.

Low interest rate environment

Value investing has a long track record of success. According to Goldman Sachs Asset Management, value stocks outperformed growth stocks by an average of about 7 percentage points per year between 1970 and early 2007.

But then, the 2008 financial crisis hit the economy, and the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to near zero. In the years that followed, the central bank raised interest rates modestly, but cut them again in early 2020 to support the economy that had been hit by the pandemic.

Low interest rates tend to be more beneficial for certain stocks. Growth companies are expected to expand their operations significantly and receive more cash in the future. In contrast, the present value of value stocks is usually more focused on more recent earnings in the future.

This difference means that when lower interest rates increase the value of distant future cash flows, the value of growth stocks can grow substantially.

Over the past 15 years, the Russell 3000 Growth Index, which tracks companies growing faster than average, has risen by about 700%. In comparison, the Russell 3000 Value Index, which tracks a lower price, is up about 200% relative to companies with lower book value and lower growth expectations. Some companies may fall into both indices.

Bryant VanCronkhite, senior portfolio manager of value strategy at Allspring Global Investments, said: "This mathematical law cannot be argued. "Growth stocks benefit from the trend of lower interest rates. ”

This favorable trend has led to the dominance of large tech stocks in recent years. From the end of 2019 to the end of 2023, the shares of Nvidia and Tesla have risen by more than 700%, while the shares of Apple, Microsoft and Google have more than doubled. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 48%.

So, what do value investors do? According to Munger, you might have to buy one of the tech giants.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal in October, Munger said: "I think the modern investor almost has to invest in some stocks that are well above average in order to be successful." "They'll try to hold some Apple, Google, etc., just to keep up with the market. ”

Berkshire has followed this strategy, and its position in Apple was worth more than $156 billion at the end of September, far more than other stock positions.

Although Warren Buffett has expressed an antipathy to tech stocks, calling them incomprehensible, he believes that Apple is a retail giant with loyal customers, and has changed his mind.

Since Berkshire first bought about $1 billion in Apple shares in early 2016, the stock price has risen about 600%. According to FactSet, when Berkshire first invested in Apple stock, Apple stock was trading at about 10 to 11 times the company's earnings over the past 12 months. And now, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 30 times.

As for Warren Buffett, he wrote in a March 1993 shareholder letter that he considered the term "value investing" to be redundant.

He wrote: "If 'investing' is not the pursuit of at least sufficient value to justify the amount paid, then what is?" "The intention to pay more than its calculated value for a stock, with the hope of selling it at a higher price soon, should be called speculation. ”

He went on to say that characteristics, such as the ratio of a company's share price to earnings or book value, do not determine whether an investor is buying something based on its true value. Instead, investors should discount the cash flow that can be expected from a stock.

Resuscitation is interrupted

2022 seems likely to be the beginning of a recovery in value stocks.

The Fed is resolute in its fight against inflation, starting to raise interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s. The market is starting to favor investments that generate cash flow quickly.

Large-cap tech stocks such as Apple, Meta Platforms and Netflix fell, dragging the S&P 500 down. In 2022, the Russell 3000 Value Index surpassed the Growth Index for the first time since 2016.

Many value investors believe that buying discount stocks will eventually prove out as the Fed commits to keeping interest rates high until the central bank is confident in inflation control.

However, the following year, the stock market fell into an AI frenzy. Investors excited about the development of artificial intelligence have flocked to the stocks of big tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft. According to Dow Jones Market Data, in 2023, the Russell 3000 Value Index is up 9%, the biggest gain since 2020, but still lagging the growth index by 40%.

Howard Marks, co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital Management, said: "So-called growth stock investing often represents a triumph of optimism. ”

"The great thing about AI companies is that you don't even need to think about cash flow. It's not a cash flow story, it's a whole new world story," he says.

Many investors believe that it is unclear whether the AI frenzy is a sign of a sustained period for growth stocks to lead again. Some believe that there are signs of a dot-com bubble similar to the late '90s in tech stocks that have been driving the market recently.

Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the value-focused asset manager Research Nexus, said investing in AI is tricky because it's unclear which companies will come out on top. He expects value stocks to outperform growth stocks over the next decade, with an average annual gain of up as much as 8 percentage points, in part because value stocks look historically cheap compared to growth stocks after last year's AI frenzy.

Arnault argues that there are parallels between the current period and the tech bubble period, when investors were right in predicting the profound impact of the internet, but didn't have a clear idea of which companies would end up reaping huge success from technology.

"If there is any mean reversion, [value's] returns will be incredible," he said, adding that the current gap between growth and value valuations is "close to unprecedented levels." ”

According to FTSE Russell, the Russell 1000 Value Index traded at 19 times earnings over the past 12 months at the end of December, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index traded at 35.7 times earnings.

The growth index is mainly concentrated in technology stocks, while the value index has a higher weight in the financials, industrials and healthcare sectors, which have a greater influence on the market.

Value investing today

Some value investors now advocate an industry-neutral approach, meaning they choose the lower-priced companies in each sector to invest in. This includes areas such as technology, where few companies trade at the bargain price that most investors think.

Jason Hsu, chairman of Rayliant Global Advisors and co-founder of ResearchAffiliates, said: "I tend to implement value factors in a more industry-neutral way to avoid these unintended biases against an industry, such as retail. Value investors who choose to invest in technology companies that trade at expensive multiples will favor companies with strong cash flows and other quality factors, Hessen said.

Other value investors are adamant not to buy expensive stocks, regardless of the industry.

Ariel Investments' founder, John A. W. Rogers S. "Value investors have gradually started buying more expensive stocks," Jr. said. But we didn't do it... We always stick to the belief that we buy with the utmost pessimism and be greedy when others are afraid. ”

Like many investors, Rogers said he had been taught a lesson by Buffett and Munger. He believes there is an opportunity in overlooked value stocks because he believes that insufficient research on value companies has led to these companies being misunderstood and mispriced. Rogers is bullish on cruise lines, real estate-related companies, financial services, and media and entertainment companies.

"Charlie Munger once said that investing shouldn't be like Noah's Ark, you own everything," he said. We've always tried to maintain a high level of focus and an in-depth understanding of our favorite industries. ”

Nicholas Stegman is a 34-year-old entrepreneur based in Columbus, Ohio, who learned Munger's investment approach Xi Columbia Business School.

Munger said there are some big opportunities that come your way in a lifetime and you have to be prepared to seize them. You have to wait for the opportunity to work in your favor," Stigman said.

Keeping that advice in mind, Stigman said he bought shares in Google's parent company, Alphabet, during the pandemic-induced market sell-off in March 2020. Since then, the share price has almost quadrupled.

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