In 2024, the strongest bailout policy is coming!
Here's the real good news!
That is, on January 2, the central bank announced the resumption of PSL, which can be said to be incomprehensible to 99% of people, but there is no doubt that this is the most effective policy to stimulate the economy in the past six months!
Let's just put it this way, the last round of house price skyrocketing, completely dependent on this trick, if this policy is introduced, the property market in 2024 has not moved, then mainland real estate is the real danger!
What is PSL? In fact, it is a collateral supplementary loan, which is one of the central bank's structural monetary policy tools, which was created in April 2014 and was originally used to finance shantytown reform.
You can simply understand that it is to directly release water to the property market!
01, the power of directional water discharge
This time 350 billion yuan was invested, and many people jumped out to scold their mothers again, what is 350 billion yuan? Last year, several trillion yuan of water was released, but there was no movement!
The person who said this does not understand finance and economics at all, this 350 billion is the base currency, and 350 billion PSL can derive up to 3 times the loan, and almost 1 trillion or so currency will flow into the market!
Last year's trillions of water, in fact, most of them did not flow into the property market, but for other areas to save emergencies, this time 1 trillion is completely into the property market, the two are incomparable!
You just need to remember that without PSL in 2015, it would be impossible for the national housing prices to rise in 2018!
So don't underestimate PSL, although there are many similarities between PSL and 2015, there are also some differences!
This PSL is mainly for directional shed reform, that is, it is carried out for super large and mega cities, and has nothing to do with 90% of cities!
Secondly, the leverage effect of PSL will be more obvious this time, and the specific process is as follows:
The central bank releases PSL to policy banks, such as China Development Bank;
Then, after the CDB released the low-interest shantytown reform loan to the local government, local state-owned enterprises, and local governments to get the money, it began to transform the urban village into a shantytown reform monetization, and distributed it to the relocated households as compensation for demolition.
After the demolition households get the compensation (house ticket), they can go to the new housing market to buy a house.
In this way, it can effectively destock the developer, and the developer will continue to buy land and build buildings with the house ticket after selling the new house;
The local government took the house ticket and returned it to the China Development Bank, and the China Development Bank repaid the loan to the central bank, and the chain closed the loop!
Eight years ago, we relied on a trick to let real estate take off, and whether we can save real estate this time depends on the amount of PSL!
If the amount is sufficient, then the property market will definitely be able to be saved!
02. The essence of inflation is the transfer of wealth
Why in the past two years, we have been cutting RRR and interest rates, and constantly printing money, in fact, we are verifying a logic, that is, by constantly printing money, to tide over the economic crisis.
Only by constantly releasing water, personal debts, local debts, and corporate debts will be diluted, and the more water is released, the more beneficial it will be to those who are in debt, and the more unfavorable it will be to those who save money!
Because the essence of monetary release is a wealth transfer, that is, the transfer of the money of ordinary people and the middle class in the bank to the debtor.
The only way for ordinary people to be below inflation is to buy high-quality real estate in core cities!
Those who are bearish on the property market, look at the decline of housing prices, and regard housing prices as a flood beast can only fall to the bottom step by step, and your wealth will continue to evaporate!
Of course, I'm not advocating you to buy a house quickly, you should do what you can when you buy a house!
If you have a stable income, you can consider replacing a house with a higher urban energy level, better quality and location in 2024;
But what about the leverage ratio, it is best that after your house is replaced, your monthly payment cannot exceed 30% of the couple's total income!
For example, if the combined monthly income of your husband and wife is 45,000, then the monthly payment after you replace the house should be around 15,000.
If the monthly payment accounts for more than half of both of your income, then buying a house will compress your quality of life!
However, it should be noted that if you buy a house only to improve the quality of life, you don't have to, in a big city, you can actually rent a house to improve the quality of life, and there is more money to spend every month.
The core concept of buying a house with a loan is that you have to choose the right city, but it is precisely on the issue of choosing the right city, 90% of people will step on the pit!
Because in China, there are only 11 cities that are really valuable! That is, I often call the list of 4+7 cities!
Of course, this cognition is based on the results of Mr. Jiang's in-depth research on each core city for 16 consecutive years!
The so-called 4+7 is Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou + Hangchengwu, Suning, Hezhong! (Ning is the abbreviation of Nanjing, not Ningbo)
The longer you study the value of a city, the more you will find that the development potential, economic strength, and industrial structure of a city are completely determined by its geographical location!
03, City is geography! Geography is destiny!
The more time passes, you'll find that other cities will become more and more different from these 11 cities, not just in terms of housing prices.
It also includes job opportunities, wealth volume, quality of life, vision pattern, possibility, medical care, education, connections, circles, resources, and potential.
You may think that the housing prices in Nanjing are now 30% lower than the peak, but so what, the strength of the people is here, and within three years, the housing prices will return to a new high!
You said that you don't like Hangzhou, you feel that the city is under great pressure and the housing prices are high, and you would rather go back to your hometown to build a villa than take out a loan of 3% to buy a suite in Hangzhou!
Less than a year after you returned to your hometown, you came to Hangzhou again because you found that you had made no money in your hometown!
I think that in this life, one of the more important things than buying a house is to recognize your ecological niche!
Summary: Recognize your own ecological niche
If you don't even know where your ecological niche is, then you will step on the pit every minute and every moment!
The more developed the Internet, the more poor people will be flooded, as well as the content packaged for the poor to see, the underlying logic of these contents is to use 1 minute of happiness, so that you can be satisfied in time and unable to extricate yourself!
To know your own ecological niche, first of all, you must see your own position, and then jump out of your own position and look at the problem from the perspective of the overall situation!
For example, if you want to buy a house that can maintain its value, and as a result, you buy it in a city with a net outflow of population, what do you say is the value of it?
This is like, a young man who opens Didi and delivers takeaways is eager to earn 100,000 yuan a month, so he is desperately delivering takeaways, do you think it can be realized?
Ma Yun said that if you want to earn 1 million, you have to do a job that can earn 1 million!
The so-called ecological niche is what you want to have? First of all, it depends on the position you are in? If you are in a position that cannot bring you your goals, then you have to change your position and identity!
Don't use tactical diligence to cover up strategic laziness!