The article is about 2200 words in total, and it is expected to take about 7 minutes.
Looking for China's help, China and the United States are only competitors and not enemies, and after China helps, China is not a friend of the United States, so to speak, the moral bottom line of the United States is quite flexible and can be adjusted at will. As we all know, U.S. debt is the lifeblood of the United States, and as long as U.S. debt moves, the United States' attitude will inevitably change.
Recently, the U.S. debt has once again reached a peak of $34 trillion, and Yellen has already stated that she will visit China again, and this time the U.S. debt has broken through, will Yellen's visit to China begin again?
U.S. debt exceeded $34 trillion
People in the world say that the US economy is growing fast, but in fact, the fastest growing US debt is the US debt, which has grown by 1 trillion yuan in three months, 4 trillion yuan in two years, and 11 trillion yuan in four years.
China's economic growth depends on innovation, but what does the United States' economic growth depend on? The United States' economic growth depends on issuing bonds and spending money. With 4 trillion yuan in two years and 11 trillion yuan in four years, it can be said that the economic growth rate of the United States cannot keep up with the speed at which the United States spends money.
And according to the previous forecast of the United States, the scale of the U.S. national debt will need to wait until fiscal year 2029 to exceed 34 trillion US dollars, but now this time has been advanced by 5 years, reaching 34 trillion US dollars at the beginning of 2024.
And we all know that the rise in debt represents an increase in debt repayment pressure, and can the United States still be able to repay it? I think at the current rate of debt growth in the United States, it simply cannot afford to pay it. Moreover, some relevant media have calculated that the annual interest on the US Treasury debt has reached nearly 1/3 of the fiscal revenue.
Moreover, the U.S. debt is still growing rapidly at a rate of nearly two trillion per year. The 2020 forecast of 34 trillion in 29 years has been broken, and now some institutions say that the scale will be increased to 50 trillion US dollars by 2030, that is, an increase of nearly half, and this scale may also be quickly broken by the United States.
It can be said that the world is still using the dollar as a treasure, but the United States is now using the dollar like a piece of straw paper. In ten years, the U.S. debt has increased by nearly half, that is, the value of the U.S. dollar has depreciated by at least about half. If in the past, holding US dollars could buy US bonds to preserve their value, then now buying US bonds is a proper way to send money to the United States.
And we can also see that the United States is now in dire need of new debt for the United States to use. Because we know that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict costs money, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict also needs money, and even the United States itself is not enough to spend now.
After Yellen's last visit to China, the debt ceiling of the United States was raised, and the United States borrowed a wave of money, but now this debt ceiling has reached again, that is, the landlord's family has no surplus food, and if they do not borrow money, the American authorities will shut down again.
As far as the United States is concerned, who is it borrowing money with now? China is certainly the only one the United States can pick and choose. Because Russia's foreign exchange reserves are already on the way to being confiscated, Japan is already buying them, and we, as the second largest country, are still reducing their holdings, and it is the lowest level since 09, which is intolerable for the United States.
Because the United States has always considered itself to be the first in the world, always giving priority to the United States, and other countries should support the United States, the United States has always been unable to tolerate China's reduction of holdings. Moreover, with the reduction of China, the scale of US debt held by China is gradually working towards zero, not only in the eyes of the United States, but also in the eyes of countries around the world.
In the past, global central banks were stockpiling dollars, but now they are stockpiling gold and reducing their holdings of U.S. bonds. Even Saudi Arabia has begun to diversify its investments, and in recent years, with a number of cooperation agreements, it can be said that the American Ponzi scheme is gradually coming to an end.
Naturally, the United States cannot tolerate this kind of behavior of withdrawing the ladder, so the United States has once again looked at us, so Yellen's previous shouting is expected to visit China again. What can Yellen do during her visit to China? It will certainly not be to lift the blockade against China, and the purpose is naturally clear, that is, to borrow money.
Will China take over again?
If in the past saving the United States was saving China, there is no way to do it, because the proportion of the United States is too important, then now China is large enough to say no to the United States.
Because we know that for the sake of economic development, the mainland's previous economic pattern was export-oriented, and this was particularly prominent in 08, so at that time, the United States, as the world's largest consumer market and China's largest exporter, naturally could not fall.
Because the United States falls, there will be a sharp contraction in demand, which will lead to various problems such as overcapacity and enterprise shutdowns, so we have to swallow this bitter fruit. And now? Now we have a choice.
Although the proportion of our foreign trade is still about 30%, compared with 08 years, it has dropped by nearly half, and our trade is more balanced. In recent years, we have vigorously developed trade with third world countries and made our trade pattern more balanced, just to cope with today's development.
And we can also see from the trade side that ASEAN is already our largest trading partner, and now whether it is Central Asia, Russia, Africa and other regions, the share of trade with us is growing rapidly, which means that we are not so risky now.
Since the United States launched the trade confrontation, we can also see that the power is not as obvious as the United States imagined, and today the United States wants China to take over again, is this really feasible?
And we can all see that the United States has to spend nearly one-third of its $34 trillion in U.S. debt to repay interest, so if the U.S. debt grows to $50 trillion in the future, can the U.S. still be able to repay the interest? After all, the United States is now experiencing a situation where interest repayments are rising and fiscal revenues are falling.
Therefore, the current United States is maintaining the operation of the country by lending and supporting loans, and this price needs to be borne by the countries that buy US debt. And even if China wants to take it, China can't afford to take such a big hole now.
And now it's the last few sticks of the Ponzi scheme, and the probability of who will take over the future will only be greater. And we can also see that the United States is now raising interest rates to about 4.5%, and there are not too many countries rushing to grab US bonds, but are still reducing their holdings.
As we can guess, the purpose of Yellen's visit to China is to persuade us to buy U.S. bonds again. And where is the sincerity of the United States? Before Yellen came last time, the United States escalated the chip war against us, and recently the United States has begun to take action again.
We have made it very clear about this point, that is, we hope that the United States will be able to match its words with deeds, not always say one thing and do another, and develop steadily, which both countries need, but this kind of behavior of saying one thing and doing another is naturally unacceptable to us.
Therefore, instead of talking about the interview, Yellen should do her own thing first, and then come, otherwise it will be in vain. For us, we naturally need to put our own long-term interests first.
What do you think about this? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss!
It's not easy to insist on originality, remember to like and follow, and share more exciting content!