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In the past two days, the number of births in 2023 has fallen below 8 million and quickly rushed to the hot search, and many people have begun to sing about China's economy again.
Do you really understand how much of a population decline has an impact, what exactly is the impact? Tell you the truth today, don't be deceived again.
The results of the current preliminary statistics show that the number of births in China in 2023 will be 7.88 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%, the number of deaths that year will be about 11 million, and the total population will decrease by 3.12 million year-on-year, and the total population decline will increase by 367% compared with 2022.
When it comes to population decline, most people are blindly followed, and it can even be said that they have been deceived by some experts. Experts may just be talking about things, but in fact they have created panic among the Chinese, and there has been a stressful atmosphere of population decline everywhere in recent years.
This can lead to a lot of unpredictable outcomes, because a large number of people who don't know the truth can easily make wrong decisions.
Let's take a few examples, there are three most typical lies and even fallacies about population decline.
The first example, the so-called wave of kindergarten closures due to population decline, is the biggest lie.
Have you really looked at the data? Have you seriously thought about it, when were the children who went to kindergarten in these two years born?
The age of Chinese children in kindergarten is 3-6 years old, and if the so-called wave of kindergarten closures began in 2022, it is the birth rate that fell sharply from 2016 to 2019, which will lead to this result.
However, this is not the case at all. China began implementing the two-child policy in 2016, and the number of births that year hit a peak since 2000, reaching 17.86 million.
In the following years, the fertility rate was maintained at a high level, with 17.23 million in 2017, 15.23 million in 2018, and 14.65 million in 2019, and after the epidemic in 2020, the number of births dropped significantly to 12 million, until it fell below 10 million in 2022.
Therefore, the truth of the closure of kindergartens is that in the past few years, many people have seen kindergartens make money, and everyone has poured into this track to start a business, and there is overcapacity. Many of China's profitable industries can't escape the fate of overcapacity, and kindergartens are no different.
All of China's industries that have been frantically investing in overcapacity have had a sharp brake after hitting the epidemic in 2020.
The second example, that real estate will collapse rapidly due to a declining population, is also an unreliable statement.
Those who hold this view view the long-term trend as an immediate disaster.
Population decline is a long process, even if it drops by 10 million people a year, as some experts say, it will take 10 years to reach 1.3 billion people, what is the scale of 1.3 billion people? Have you ever thought about it?
Also, with the population dropping by more than 3 million people this year, are you really sure that it will drop by 10 million people a year? When will it happen?
What's more, as the epidemic passes and the economy recovers, the birth rate will recover, although it cannot be said to return to the level of 2016, but it should not be a problem to return to more than 10 million births per year.
Therefore, it is expected that it will be at least 15-20 years before the Chinese population will drop to 1.3 billion, still one of the most populous and largest markets in the world.
The third example is that because of the population decline, the industries related to the population will fall off a cliff in recent years, and China's economy will also be greatly dragged down.
As analyzed above, population decline is an extremely slow process, and experts are looking at the future to increase the pressure and anxiety of the current society.
Experts also have to admit that if the population falls below 1 billion, at least after 2050, and there are still 30 years to go, can we find a way to combat population decline? This possibility is too great.
At the beginning of this year, the new government proposed to support China's modernization with high-quality population development.
The United States, with a population of only 340 million, is the world's largest economy. If we try to improve the quality of the population and double the GDP per capita, even if the population falls to 1 billion, we can still achieve twice the size of the American economy.
In addition, we are currently working hard to develop technology, especially artificial intelligence, which will be able to achieve greater efficiency and productivity with a smaller population in the future, and at the same time, the elderly can continue to participate in the social division of labor with the help of technology.
We agree that population decline is a long-term problem that may even be difficult in the future.
However, there will not be much crisis in front of you, so there is no need to be too anxious at all. As long as we regard the solution of the population problem as a long-term goal and work hard to solve it from now on, we will be able to overcome difficulties in the future.