Windows 10 will end service for 240 million PCs or become e-waste

Reporter Chen Jialan reports from Guangzhou

As users seek to upgrade their PCs (personal computers) and the advent of AI PCs, the agency expects the PC market to return to 8% growth in 2024. And new PCs with Windows 11 pre-installed will also drive the market growth. However, many devices in use may be reduced to e-waste because they do not meet the hardware requirements required for Microsoft's latest operating system.

Recently, Microsoft officially confirmed that it will stop service support for Windows 10 on October 14, 2025. According to a new report released by data agency Canalys, the end of service in Windows 10 will cause 240 million computers to become electronic waste.

Why does Windows 10 end of service cause so many computers to become e-waste?Canalys research analyst Kieren Jessop told China Business News that Windows 11 requires a minimum hardware requirement for computers to need a TPM 2.0 chip (supporting security-related functions). And the vast majority of personal computers sold in the past 5 years have this chip. But about 20% of Windows installations don't have such chips, which equates to 240 million computers that can't be upgraded to Windows 11.

Stimulating the need for replacement devices has created more e-waste

The global laptop market has seen shipments decline for eight consecutive quarters after setting a new record in 2021, although agencies expect the market to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Recently, reports from various institutions have pointed out that with the gradual stabilization of the economy, the PC market will usher in a recovery in 2024. Whether it is the increase in industry demand or the promotion of AI PCs, it will inject new vitality into the PC industry.

In addition, Microsoft, the world's largest desktop operating system vendor, has made it clear that support for Windows 10 will end on October 14, 2025, giving users exactly two years to upgrade their hardware and install Windows 11.

As the PC market stabilizes and users are ready to enter a new update cycle, Windows 11 also brings hope to the channel. According to the Canalys report, 57% of partners expect Windows 10 service termination to impact customers' update plans in 2024, with one-third of PCs expecting to update in the next two years. Kieren Jessop told reporters that Windows PC shipments in 2024 will increase by 7% compared to 2023, and this growth will accelerate to 16% in 2025.

Microsoft's Windows 11 has a positive impact on the struggling PC market as users prepare for a new replacement cycle. However, the termination of Windows 10 service will expose users to the security risks caused by outdated operating systems, and may also deprive hundreds of millions of PCs of reuse and risk of being discarded and landfilled.

"Windows 10 has been around long enough since its launch in 2015, and in terms of its life cycle, it's time for a refresh. Ma Jihua, an analyst of telecommunications and Internet, told reporters that Microsoft's move to a certain extent also makes old computers inevitably face security risks and instability caused by outdated operating systems.

In addition to safety risks, these end-of-life devices can have a serious impact on the environment. E-waste has become a global public hazard, containing a large number of harmful substances and materials that are difficult to degrade. If these devices are discarded or disposed of incorrectly, they will cause serious pollution to soil, water and air, threatening human health and ecological environment.

The need for PC replacement due to the end of Windows 10 service will also cause more computers to become electronic waste. Recently, Canalys reported that in the nearly two years before Microsoft announced the official end of support for Windows 10, about one in five devices will be reduced to e-waste due to incompatibility with the Windows 11 operating system, about 240 million units.

It stands to reason that Windows 10 end-of-service users can upgrade to Windows 11, but why do so many computers end up in e-waste?

Canalys says that most of these 240 million PCs can at least be recycled if they are in good condition, but their refurbishment and resale value will be greatly reduced because they are not compatible with the latest supported versions of Windows. The reality is that it's a common outcome that a scrapped PC ends up being discarded, regardless of the operating system issue.

The reporter also noticed that a large number of PCs cannot be upgraded to Windows 11 because the hardware does not meet the requirements, and the insufficient market penetration of Windows 11 may also be the reason why many PCs are scrapped.

It's not easy for users to transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11, and a large number of PCs can't be upgraded because the hardware doesn't meet the minimum hardware standards for Windows 11. According to data from Lansweeper, a third-party organization, about 43% of computers cannot upgrade to Windows 11. Lansweeper tested about 27 million PCs in 60,000 unit organizations, with as many as 42.76% failing Windows 11's CPU hardware requirements and 14.66% failing TPM.

Kieren Jessop told reporters that 65%~70% of Windows users still use Windows 10. Only 25%~30% of users use it on Windows 11. It can be said that Windows 10 still dominates the market.

Ma Jihua told reporters that Windows 11 does have higher requirements for hardware, many old computers have not been able to upgrade, in the case of Windows 10 can not be upgraded to Windows 11 normally, these computers may not be suitable for continued use, Microsoft gave up Windows 10 is likely to promote the increase in Windows 11 market penetration.

According to Kieren Jessop, Windows 11 adoption has been slow for a number of reasons, partly due to hardware non-compliance, but this is primarily a matter of perception, especially for businesses. Windows 11 was released at the height of the pandemic and was designed to meet the needs of hybrid/remote work IT infrastructure. However, many IT departments are hesitant to upgrade to Windows 11, fearing that it will disrupt existing workflows. People are also more inclined to use Windows 10, which is seen as a huge improvement over Windows 7, while Windows 11 was initially considered to be the main upgrade in terms of interface appearance. However, Canalys predicts that Windows 11 adoption will start to grow faster in 2024 and especially 2025 due to the end of Windows 10 services and Microsoft's AI integration with Windows 11.

Microsoft still has to pay for the update service The effect remains to be seen

There are many more sustainable IT asset disposition (ITAD) approaches than there used to be. The current channel already has comprehensive PC refurbishment capabilities and is constantly improving. The Canalys 2023 Sustainability Survey found that 39% of partners already have the ability to refurbish and resell used equipment.

And in the face of a large number of computers that will be obsolete, Microsoft is not inactive.

Considering that there is a bigger gap between Windows 10 and Windows 11, Windows 10 is still the widely used operating system. Microsoft is also introducing AI-powered Copilot for Windows 10 and said it will make additional investments.

While mainstream support for Windows 10 is coming to an end, Microsoft says it will extend the paid Extended Security Update period for individual users and businesses.

In early December 2023, Microsoft announced that it would extend the period for providing Windows 10 security updates until October 2028, although the annual rate has not yet been announced. And this practice is not new to Microsoft, which has also extended paid security updates for Windows 7 and Windows 8.1 until January 2023.

While extended support can extend the life of PCs that don't meet Windows 11 requirements, the cost of these security updates can hold many users back. Plans for Windows 7 Extended Support start at $25 per PC for the first year and increase to $100 per PC each year for the third and final year. If Microsoft were to adopt a similar pricing structure to charge for extended support for Windows 10, the more cost-effective option would be to switch to a new PC with Windows 11 support, which would force older PCs to be phased out.

Canalys believes that many of the 240 million PCs will still be available in the next few years, but the demand for devices that are no longer supported by Microsoft will be minimal, and even companies with tight IT budgets will be deterred by the lack of free and ongoing security updates.

"This catastrophe will affect hundreds of millions of Windows 10 users, who will eventually be forced to buy new 'compatible' hardware. An overseas netizen left a message on Microsoft's official blog about the end of service for Windows 10.

With the end of support for Windows 10 services, the resulting e-waste is growing in scale. In Canalys' view, both device and operating system (OS) vendors have a responsibility to maximize the usable life of their products. To promote a circular economy, OEMs must design with durability, repair, and recyclability in mind. Operating system vendors, on the other hand, must ensure that these devices remain operational and secure for as long as possible. The combination of these efforts can support end users, partners, and ITAD (IT Asset Disposition) experts to ensure that equipment is not discarded prematurely, but can be repaired, redeployed, refurbished, and resold for a second life.

It is worth noting that from a policy perspective, EU legislators have put forward some strict requirements for all smartphones and tablets sold in the European market, and the regulator has recommended that mobile phone suppliers should provide at least five years of security updates and three years of operating system updates for their devices.

Canalys said that while the European Union is about to implement a regulation that will require smartphone and tablet manufacturers to provide functional and security updates within a certain period of time after the release of the device, there are no regulations in the current PC market to drive this change. At the same time, cross-industry collaboration may be the only solution to the e-waste problem that has been a concern for the tech industry for a long time.