According to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, at the invitation of the Chinese side, President Mohamed Moiz of the Republic of Maldives will pay a state visit to China from January 8 to 12, 2024.
Although this has been foreseen for a long time, India still inevitably "breaks the big defense".
In fact, news of Muiz's visit to China was first revealed by the Times of India, which said that the two sides are negotiating on the matter, and if nothing else, the visit will take place in the coming weeks.
The report mentions that since 2008, the Maldives' presidents have visited India for the first time, but Muiz "broke this tradition" by visiting Turkey for the first time after his tenure, and then traveled to the United Arab Emirates to attend COP28.
As for Muiz's intention to stay away from India, the Modi government is well aware. After all, during his election campaign, he repeatedly criticized former President Saleh's efforts to strengthen India-Malaysia military ties for affecting the unity of the Maldives.
The day after Muiz was sworn in, he methodically demanded that India withdraw its troops from its territory, pointing out that India's move actually undermined the sovereignty of the Maldives.
In early December, the news came to fruition, when Moiz publicly stated that the Indian government had agreed to withdraw its troops from the Maldives. But the Modi government doesn't seem to be dead set on this, and has a little bit of a desire to wait for the times to change. According to the newspaper The Hindu, citing people familiar with the matter, discussions about the withdrawal of troops are ongoing and inconclusive. India's Ministry of External Affairs is also secretive about this. But what is certain is that there will be unspeakable resistance involved.
Some analysts said that the reason why Muiz released the wind ahead of schedule was mainly because he saw India's reluctance, so he used it to exert pressure. Because Muiz's demands are legitimate and reasonable, the Modi government is obviously not easy to refuse, so it can only be vague and try to delay.
As everyone knows, India has always had a simple dream of being a great power, claiming to be the hegemon of South Asia, and doing everything it can to project influence to its neighbors in order to compete with China in the north, seize the interests of the Indian Ocean in the south, enter the South China Sea to the western Pacific Ocean in the east, and exit the Red Sea and the Suez Canal in the west.
Against this strategic backdrop, India has an almost distorted desire to control its neighboring countries in order to maintain its strategic dominance, and the Maldives is one of the victims. India-Malaysia military and security cooperation began in the 60s of the last century, but after entering the new century, under the influence of anti-hegemony and independence ideology, the Maldives has repeatedly asked India to withdraw its troops to prevent Malaysia from being drawn into the geopolitical whirlpool.
Muiz's demand for India to withdraw its troops is not simply a matter between the two countries, but a regional event with anti-hegemonic significance. But the problem is that India is not willing to give up on this outcome.
It would be fine if India simply could not accept this result, but it blamed China's influence for the transformation of the Maldives, and even maliciously speculated that China would replace India in the Maldives to garrison the Maldives.
Muiz is seen as a "pro-China" leader. But that's not true. Muiz has repeatedly stated publicly that he is a "pro-Malay" leader who puts the interests of Maldivian citizens first in all policies. In addition, he stressed that the Maldives has no intention of taking sides in the geopolitical competition between the great powers and therefore rejects the Indian military presence, a principle that "applies equally to other countries".
The main reason why Mouiz gives the impression of being pro-China to the outside world is that during his tenure as mayor of Malé, he personally promoted and witnessed the fruitful achievements of the "Belt and Road" and the benefits it brought to local residents, and made it clear that he hoped to further promote practical cooperation between Malaysia and China in various fields.
Therefore, the Modi government should not have the zero-sum mentality of "India or China", but should view China-Malaysia cooperation rationally and objectively, and give priority to maintaining regional peace, stability and development, rather than falling into the trap of the so-called competition for influence between China and India.