8,911,300 heads!At the end of 2023, the inventory of the top 20 listed pig enterprises will be able to reproduce sows year-on-year......
The National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 4th that according to the monitoring of the market prices of 50 important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field, compared with mid-December 2023, 24 products rose in price, 24 decreased, and 2 remained flat. Among them, the price of live pigs (three yuan) was 14.4 yuan/kg, down 0.7% month-on-month.
At the beginning of 2024, hog prices continue to decline. According to the statistics of the pig information network, today, the average price of live pigs is 7.08 yuan / catty, down 0.05 yuan / kg from yesterday.
After the Spring Festival, the price of piglets may rise, and now more than 100 piglets can be caught?
It is understood that the current price of 7 kg piglets in the southern provinces is 220-240 yuan/head, and the price of 7 kg piglets in the northern provinces is about 150 yuan.
"It can't go up before the Spring Festival, and the Spring Festival is a node, and the price of the pig will definitely rise after the year. Mr. Liu, the relevant negative person of a group in Hunan, said that now there are more people who catch piglets, and there is basically no pressure fence.
Boss Chen of another waist pig farm said that last year's pig price was 7.5, a loss of millions, and the cash flow pressure at the end of the year was high. Even if the piglets of more than 200 yuan are sold at a loss, there is no way, and they must sell part of the funds. After the end of the year, the financial pressure is reduced, unless there is a suitable profit on the price of piglets to consider selling, otherwise leave it to their own fattening, more optimistic about the market in the second half of the year, piglet prices will definitely rise after the Spring Festival.
The boss of a professional fattening farm in Hunan also believes that the price of piglets will rise after the Spring Festival, as for how much it will rise, whether it will double, it depends on the actions of the large groups that buy and sell piglets.
However, a batch of slaughtered fat pigs in Hunan is a small and medium-sized pig farm, but Boss Li has a different idea, he thinks, "I don't have illusions about this year's market, who catches who jumps into the pit." Last year, the hype of the non-plague epidemic before and after the year was optimistic about the market in the second half of last year, and the price of piglets doubled to 600, and the pig price of 7 yuan died of loss. Unless this year's epidemic is indeed as rumored, there is a possibility of a market. Let me take a look first, maybe at the end of the month, more piglets will be slaughtered, and it can be reduced. ”
The industry may take the initiative to accelerate production cuts, and it may be profitable in the second half of 2024
From the perspective of the supply of pig production capacity after 10 months of the impact of the breeding sow inventory, the average number of fertile sows from April to June 2023 increased by 640,000 compared with the same period in 2022, while the average pig price in the first quarter of 2023 was 7.5 yuan/catty. In the first quarter of this year, the price of live pigs may be 6.5-7 yuan per catty, as predicted by industry insiders. Previously, the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also emphasized twice that in view of the "two encounters" that may occur after the Spring Festival in the off-season of consumption and the increase in the number of pigs slaughtered, it is necessary to guide farmers to slaughter pigs in time and avoid blindly pressing the fence to affect the price recovery.
Mr. Zhang, the relevant person in charge of a small group scale farm in Hunan, believes that the price of fat pigs will begin to pick up from April to May in 2024, and it may reach 8 pieces in June, and there may be a price of 8.5-10 yuan from July to October, which is consistent with the real downward trend of breeding sows in July 2023.
Gan Yuantian, Nanchuanhe Cooperative, Liuyang, Hunan Province, also said that the deep loss period generally does not last more than 4-5 months, and the annual loss of leading enterprises in 2023 is a foregone conclusion, and the loss of another 5-6 months in the first half of 2024 will be adjusted from passive production reduction to active acceleration of production reduction, and further adjustment of the supply and demand relationship pattern will free up 35% space. From October 2023, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, and the three eastern provinces will affect the pig elimination rate of more than 40%, which means that the number of pigs transported to the south from July to August this year will be reduced.
In addition, he also mentioned that the national industrial chain research team came to the cooperative to investigate, and from the national visit to farmers, feed factories, veterinary drug factories, slaughterhouses, agricultural markets, futures, etc., from November 2023, sows are being reduced at a rate of 1.5%, which means that 50-600,000 sows will be eliminated every month, indicating that the second half of this year is not necessarily a profit, but 99% confirm that there must be profit opportunities. It also reminded its cooperative members to be fully prepared for piglets from January to April 2024, and effectively prevent pig companies from raising piglet prices from late March.
The inventory status of the top 20 breeding sows of listed pig enterprises has an important impact on the future price. These companies occupy a dominant position in the field of pig breeding, and the status of their breeding sow herd directly determines the supply of the future pig market, which in turn affects the price of pigs.
According to the data of my steel agricultural products network, the top 20 sows that can reproduce in the listed pig enterprises at the end of 2023 will be 8.9113 million, a decrease of 51,700 from last year.
Small profits may be normalized, and only by effectively reducing breeding costs can profit margins
"Laymen look at prices, insiders look at production capacity. Farmer Wang Jinyou said frankly, "The sharp rise and fall of pig prices will be considered a signal of cyclical changes." In fact, the production capacity of fertile sows is the standard for interpreting cycle changes in the industry. According to the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the long run, the downward cycle of this cycle may continue. ”
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the mainland's pig production capacity continued to pull back, and the national breeding sow inventory in November 2023 was 41.58 million heads, but it was still higher than the normal holdings, which was 101.4% of the normal holdings of 41 million heads.
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that the pig industry is an asset-heavy, long-term capital turnover and low-profit industry. It is only because in the previous rounds of the cycle, the pig industry has been affected by a variety of factors, African swine fever and other factors have caused huge fluctuations in the supply of pigs, resulting in a larger-than-expected rise in pig prices, and even a historical high. The pig industry is not a profiteering industry, and the profitability level is a state of small or slight profitability.
For farmers, low profits mean benefits from cost reduction. Muyuan shares also gave the pig industry has entered the "meager profit period" judgment, it believes that with the development of the pig industry chain gradually improved, the industry gradually matured, the pig industry into a "meager profit period". The company's greatest growth comes from the growth potential of each pig, and there is still 600 yuan of cost space for each pig to dig deep.
"In the coming period, in the case of relatively stable supply, the pig industry will no longer have a profiteering situation, and the main body of breeding that can effectively reduce costs can bring a certain profit margin to itself. Profitability can not be pinned on market price fluctuations, the pig industry gradually began to enter a virtuous circle (from the relative surplus of pig supply to the balance of supply), the price fluctuation range of pigs will decline significantly, if the corresponding industry average cost is also significantly reduced, the industry as a whole still has room for profitability. Zhu Zengyong said.
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Source: Synthesized from China Business Daily, My Iron and Steel Agricultural Products Network, Internet, etc
Editor: Mao Hong
Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice