Earthquakes, collisions, attacks, explosions...... Just as 2024 is at the beginning of the "turbulent" season and the bad news is coming one after another, there is a comforting good news.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Russia and Ukraine carried out a large-scale prisoner exchange operation on the 3rd, releasing more than 200 prisoners each.
This is the largest prisoner exchange since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, and the first prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine in five months.
Against the backdrop of Russia's and Ukraine's recent fierce air strikes against each other, such a large-scale prisoner exchange is surprising, will it mean that the situation between Russia and Ukraine will be more likely in 2024?
Positive signals
On the 3rd, Russia and Ukraine issued their own notices announcing this major news.
The Russian Ministry of Defense informed that 248 prisoners of the Russian army returned to Russia from Ukrainian-controlled areas under humanitarian mediation in the United Arab Emirates.
The Ukrainian department in charge of prisoner exchange issued a document saying that a total of 230 people were released from the Ukrainian side, including 130 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 55 members of the Ukrainian National Guard, 38 border guards, 1 national police officer and 6 civilians.
"It's a good day for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated the released people on their return to their homes on the same day, and said that he would make every effort to secure the release of all Ukrainian detainees.
If we look at this prisoner exchange from several angles, some features are striking.
In terms of scale, it is a record. 248 vs. 230 is seen as the largest prisoner exchange since the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine.
Judging from the identity of the released persons, it is quite symbolic. For example, among the released Ukrainian captives were soldiers who participated in the tragic battle for the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, as well as soldiers who held Snake Island and refused to disarm.
Some analysts say that due to the "Ukrainian fatigue" in the West, military aid cannot be delivered in time, and Ukraine is currently in a difficult situation. Both the east and the south were fighting hard, and they even had to shrink their fronts and turn into a defensive state. Now, the return of these soldiers may bring some joy and help boost morale.
From the point of view of timing, it is also intriguing. The prisoner exchange was carried out against the backdrop of a stalemate in the war between Russia and Ukraine and the two sides turning to indiscriminate bombing of each other, and public opinion described it as "unexpected" and "rare".
Moreover, this time it has been 5 months since the last prisoner exchange.
Since the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, the two sides have exchanged prisoners several times, although there has been little direct communication between Russia and Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian side, a total of 49 prisoner exchanges took place, including this one on Wednesday.
However, the prisoner exchange became somewhat "passive" in the second half of last year, with a marked decline in the number of exchanges.
There is speculation that an important reason may be that when Zelensky visited Turkey last year, he brought back a number of senior commanders of the Azov battalion. And according to the agreement, they can only stay in Turkey and cannot return to Ukraine. The incident angered Moscow, leading to a "halt" in the Russian-Ukrainian prisoner swap after the limited exchange in August.
The large-scale exchange of prisoners on the 3rd allowed the outside world to capture two positive signals: first, Russia and Ukraine may turn around on the issue of prisoner exchange; second, Russia and Ukraine are fighting and talking, and the two sides are not partial. As Zelensky said, "although the prisoner exchange has been stalled for a long time, the negotiations have not stopped".
Why?
So, how did this prisoner swap come about?
Just as the previous exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine was inseparable from the mediation of Middle Eastern countries, the UAE has made a great contribution as a "middleman" this time.
In the briefing, the Russian side specifically mentioned the UAE, saying that it played a humanitarian mediating role.
The Ukrainian side also praised the UAE for playing a "direct role". Zelensky expressed his gratitude to "those who brought our people home."
This is not the first time that the UAE has mediated, and has been involved in several previous prisoner exchange negotiations.
It is believed that the reason why the UAE can frequently play the role of "mediator" is related to the following factors.
First, since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, the UAE, like other Middle Eastern countries, has been able to maintain a more cautious and neutral attitude.
Second, the UAE has good relations with Russia and Ukraine.
On the Russian side, the two sides have close political and economic ties. In November 2022, the President of the United Arab Emirates visited Russia. Less than a month ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the United Arab Emirates. The issue of coordinating the exchange of prisoners is also speculated to be a major task of Putin's trip. At the same time, the cooperation between the two sides under the OPEC+ framework will help Russia hedge against the impact of Western sanctions.
On the Ukrainian side, the UAE is willing to provide humanitarian assistance and assist in resolving issues such as prisoner exchanges.
As the UAE Foreign Ministry said in a statement on the 3rd, it is precisely because of its "strong and friendly relations" with Moscow and Kiev that the mediation can be successful.
Third, the UAE has ambitions to enhance its status and influence.
It has been commented that the UAE's goal is not only to continue its efforts at the humanitarian level, but also to seek a peaceful solution to the conflict.
The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs also reiterated the above goals in a statement on the 3rd.
In addition, judging from the information disclosed by Russia and Ukraine, this successful prisoner exchange is indeed not easy to come by.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement on the 3rd that the two sides had gone through "complex negotiations".
The head of the intelligence agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, also said that the negotiations were long and very difficult.
Treacherous reality
This year is the third year of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and whether it can turn from war to war has attracted widespread attention.
At the end of last year, there were rumors that Russia and Ukraine had secretly opened peace talks.
On the first day of the new year, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his desire to end the conflict as soon as possible. Putin also mentioned that Western attitudes are changing. He said that the West began to discuss the issue of negotiations and began to look for ways to end the conflict as soon as possible.
On the third day of the new year, the two sides achieved the largest prisoner exchange since the beginning of the war, did it once again open up the imagination space for peace talks?
It's just that from the current point of view, the wish is beautiful, but the reality is cold.
On the eve of the prisoner exchange, there were still bullets flying over Russia and Ukraine. On the 2nd, Ukraine said that the capital Kyiv, the second largest city Kharkiv and other places were attacked by intensive Russian airstrikes, and 17 Ukrainian rockets were shot down in Belgorod Oblast in southwestern Russia.
With the two sides at a stalemate on the frontal battlefield, Russia and Ukraine seem to have turned to an air campaign since the end of last year, and the scale of Russian air strikes is considered the largest since the outbreak of the conflict. Not to be outdone, Ukraine has frequently launched attacks against Russia.
The outside world has noticed that the Russian army may have adjusted its strategy and shifted the target of its attack to Ukraine's defense industry, rather than the energy infrastructure targeted last winter.
Some commentators say that the exchange of prisoners of war while fighting fiercely constitutes a rather treacherous reality on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.
Xinhua News Agency previously quoted analysts as saying that Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly exchanged prisoners to show that there are communication channels between the two sides, but the prospects for the resumption of peace talks between the two sides are still slim due to fundamental differences in the conditions for the resumption of peace talks and the vision of a future peaceful order.
(Editor's email: [email protected])
Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: Visual China Photo Editor: Zhu Rong
Source: Author: Liao Qin
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