Reporter Li Zhe reports from Beijing
In 2024, domestic refined oil prices will usher in the first adjustment.
According to the information on the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission, according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, in accordance with the current refined oil price formation mechanism, from 24 o'clock on January 3, 2024, domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) will increase by 200 yuan and 190 yuan per ton respectively. The relevant price linkage and subsidy policies shall be implemented in accordance with the current regulations.
The impact of this round of refined oil price adjustment on consumers is as follows: private cars (fuel tank capacity of 50L) are expected to spend 8 yuan more to fill up a tank of fuel, and private cars (fuel consumption of 100 kilometers are 7-8L) The cost of each 100 kilometers is expected to increase by 1.2 yuan. For large trucks (fully loaded with 50 tons), the cost increase is expected to reach 6.4 yuan per 100 kilometers driven.
The reporter of "China Business Daily" noticed that in 2023, the price trend of refined oil products in the mainland will be ups and downs, and there will be a wave of five consecutive rises in the middle of the year, but it will end with six consecutive declines at the end of the year. Stepping into 2024, the price of refined oil will usher in an upward trend at the first price adjustment, which will undoubtedly bring new variables to the market.
The price of refined oil ushered in an increaseIn this round of pricing cycle, the international crude oil market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. Among them, the continuation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has provided support for the trend of international oil prices. However, the news of Angola's withdrawal from OPEC has raised doubts about the effectiveness of OPEC's production cuts, which has dealt a blow to the trend of international oil prices. In addition, weak global economic growth, record U.S. crude oil production (whose production surge has weakened OPEC's dominance in the global crude oil market), and increased investor concerns about the outlook for economic and energy demand have all weighed on international oil prices.
The reporter noted that on January 2, international crude oil futures closed down. The New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) WTI crude oil spot contract for February delivery closed down $1.27, or 1.77%, at $70.38 a barrel. The ICE Brent crude oil spot contract for March delivery closed down $1.15 a barrel, or 1.49 percent, at $75.89 a barrel. Shanghai crude oil prices fell in overnight trading, and the main period of about SC2402 closed at 542.8 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, or 1.90%.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculation, as of the tenth working day on January 3, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 76.03 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of 3.93%. Against this backdrop, domestic retail prices have cashed in on the first round of increases in 2024. Among them, gasoline was raised by 200 yuan/ton, diesel was raised by 190 yuan/ton, and the equivalent price increase was: 89 # 0.15 yuan, 92 # 0.16 yuan, 95 # 0.17 yuan, 0 # 0.16 yuan.
Bi Mingxin, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said that affected by the low level of international oil prices, the rate of change is fluctuating in the range, due to the low average value of crude oil, after entering a new round of pricing cycle, the rate of change may start with a negative value, and the rate of change on the first working day after the price adjustment is expected to be -3.8%, corresponding to a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. In the short term, the trend of international crude oil may fluctuate in the range, the rate of change may fluctuate in a negative range, and the probability of a new round of retail price reduction is large.
Bi Mingxin mentioned that on January 2, traders were closely monitoring the tense situation in the Red Sea. Oil futures ended lower on the first trading day of the new year as record U.S. crude oil production and concerns about weak global demand weighed on oil prices. Current market uncertainty over the demand outlook, U.S. production rising to a record high of more than 13 million barrels per day, and doubts about the unity of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have weakened support for crude oil.
Talking about the next trend of international oil prices, Bi Mingxin believes that in the future, the market will continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of OPEC's production cut policy, and the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. With the issuance of a new batch of imported crude oil quotas, the starting load of Shandong refining may increase, and the supply of refined oil resources is expected to increase.
The gasoline and diesel market trends are differentiatedThe refined oil pricing cycle is superimposed on the New Year's Day holiday, resulting in the divergence of the gasoline and diesel markets. In terms of gasoline, due to the increase in the radius and frequency of people's private car trips during the New Year's Day, gasoline consumption has increased, and the price trend of the gasoline market is relatively strong under the superposition of many positive factors.
The reporter learned that the current domestic refinery capacity utilization rate is basically maintained at about 63%, in the traditional off-season of gasoline and diesel, the diesel market lacks good stimulus, and the overall demand remains weak.
However, Bi Mingxin pointed out that at present, due to the good completion of the annual tasks of the main units and the majority of Poly mentality, coupled with the landing of the first batch of refined oil export quotas in 2024, the pressure on domestic supply and demand has eased. As a result, the overall decline in diesel prices was limited.
According to the statistics of Longzhong Information, the first batch of refined oil export quotas in the mainland will be officially issued in 2024, totaling 19 million tons, an increase of 58% month-on-month and 0.05% year-on-year. Among them, the total export quota for general trade is 14.4 million tons, and the export quota for processing trade is 4.6 million tons.
The quota was mainly obtained by large enterprises such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem and Zhejiang Petrochemical, accounting for 98% of the total. Among them, PetroChina 5.78 million tons, down 3.02% year-on-year, Sinopec 7.44 million tons, up 0.40% year-on-year, CNOOC 1.7 million tons, down 3.41% year-on-year, Sinochem 2.06 million tons, up 6.74% year-on-year, and Zhejiang Petrochemical 1.73 million tons, up 3.59% year-on-year.
Relevant industry insiders pointed out: "The rise in the price of refined oil will have a certain impact on the economic operation of the mainland. However, due to the increase in the proportion of new energy in the mainland and the coal-based energy consumption pattern, the impact of refined oil price fluctuations is controllable. ”
In the face of the fluctuation of refined oil prices and the high dependence of mainland crude oil on foreign countries, major domestic oil producers are continuing to increase exploration and development efforts to reduce the foreign dependence of crude oil. The reporter learned from PetroChina that as of the end of 2023, the crude oil production of PetroChina's Daqing Oilfield has maintained hard and stable production for 9 consecutive years, natural gas has maintained an upward production trend for 13 consecutive years, and domestic and foreign oil and gas have been developed at a high level for 21 consecutive years. At the same time, Changqing Oilfield, the largest oil and gas field in China, has completed the annual oil and gas production task, and the oil and gas equivalent has reached a record high.
Talking about the next development trend of the domestic refined oil market, Bi Mingxin said that considering the increase in export plans in January, the pressure on the supply side is limited. The replenishment market on the eve of the Spring Festival in 2024 is expected to support the market, with the industry having a high enthusiasm for stocking up at a low price before the year, and optimistic expectations on the gasoline consumption side, and diesel demand will remain stable in the short term. Therefore, on the whole, the domestic gasoline and diesel market may show a differentiated pattern. Among them, the gasoline market is expected to be firm, and the diesel market may be relatively weak. ”
(Editor: Dong Shuguang Proofreader: Yan Jingning)