Image source@Visual China
文 | 探客出行，作者 | 廖鸿杰，编辑 | 冯羽
New energy vehicles are completely "crazy".
On December 27, 2023, ZEEKR 007 was officially released, and the starting price of 209,900 yuan was a full 20,000 yuan different from the pre-sale price of 229,900 yuan at the Guangzhou Auto Show in November. If you take into account the 1,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan during the pre-sale period, the final price difference is also 15,000 yuan.
A few days earlier, on December 15th, BYD Dynasty Network ushered in the listing of the annual flagship Song L, with a final price of 189,900 yuan to 249,900 yuan, compared with the pre-sale price of 220,000 to 280,000 yuan released at the end of October, a difference of 30,000 yuan, which is equivalent to a direct 8.6% discount.
According to the current new car pricing strategy, car companies seem to have become Xi to holding a "half-hidden" pre-sale conference before the launch of a new car, giving a "release price", and then making corresponding adjustments according to market feedback and the actions of peer competitors, and finally announcing the official listing.
In this way, it not only avoids the embarrassment of unsalable and temporary price changes due to overpricing, but also creates a "cool feeling" of welfare when it is officially listed, which is used to strengthen the buyer's determination to "pick up the affordable" car.
The huge difference between the official launch price and the pre-sale price also illustrates the accelerated "involution" of the new energy market to a certain extent.
01 Annual exam
For the automotive industry, December is often the peak season every year, car companies in order to rush sales, dealers in order to clear inventory, 4S stores in order to catch up with performance...... All kinds of "price for volume" price battles are everywhere.
On December 1, the first model built by Baidu and Geely, the Jiyue 01, was officially announced to be reduced by 30,000 yuan after 35 days on the market. As the first model of a new brand, there was a price adjustment of 30,000 yuan just a month after its launch, which will inevitably make people speculate about the pricing pressure behind it.
Perhaps due to the impact of the price adjustment of Jiyue 01, another high-attention brand with the same vast structure, Zeekr, although it did not officially announce a price reduction, it also gave a very sincere year-end promotion plan.
"Explorer Travel" learned from the Wuhan store of ZEEKR Automobile that the ZEEKR 001 model will also give a year-end promotion discount of 20,000 yuan in December 2023. Among them, there is an insurance subsidy of 14,000 yuan and a replacement subsidy of 6,000 yuan, but only in December.
This is also another price reduction after the official announcement of the price of ZEEKR 001 was lowered to 269,000 yuan in August, and the starting price of ZEEKR 001 was directly hit to 249,000 yuan, compared with the starting price of 300,000 yuan half a year ago, which was 8.3% off.
On December 8, Xpeng's most successful model P7i launched a 10-day discount of up to 26,000 yuan for the whole system, and then on December 18, Xpeng's annual explosive flagship G6 also ushered in a limited-time discount of 10,000 yuan for the whole system only in December.
Since then, the official starting price of Xpeng G6 has dropped to 199,900 yuan, and the Xpeng P7i intelligent driving version Max model is only 224,900 yuan.
Even Li Auto, whose sales have been rising and has repeatedly claimed that it will not reduce prices, has given an official subsidy of up to 30,000 yuan at the end of the year. The staff of the ideal store told "Explorer Travel", "It can be understood that 30,000 yuan is directly subtracted from the purchase price." ”
In order to achieve the sales target of 3 million units, BYD, which sells the best, gave a preferential subsidy of 5,000 to 20,000 yuan to all models at the end of 2022, and the official price of the Qin Plus D-MI dropped directly to 89,800 yuan.
The staff of the Tesla store in Wuhan told "Explorer Travel" that now (December) the new model (2023 new model) Tesla Model 3 can enjoy a price discount of 10,000 yuan. If you don't have the trouble to place an order in Shaanxi, you can also get a local government subsidy of 5,000 yuan, but you need to pick up the car in Shaanxi. The staff of the Tesla store said that "it will be 1,000 yuan to pull the car back with a trailer in other places, which is equivalent to saving another 4,000 yuan."
At the same time, Tesla store staff said that the Tesla Model 3 can be picked up in about two weeks. Considering that Tesla's price changes have always fluctuated closely with production capacity, Tesla's two-week delivery plus a price discount of 10,000 yuan is obviously sufficient for production capacity, but it is not ruled out that Tesla's production capacity has been excessive.
If we take into account the issuance of local subsidies or consumption vouchers in some cities or regions, the comprehensive discount of this wave of promotions will be even greater.
"Explorer" learned that on December 12, 2023, Wuhan launched a total of 10 million yuan of automobile consumption voucher distribution activities, for models with a purchase price of less than 200,000 yuan, directly subsidize 2,000 yuan of consumption vouchers, for models with a purchase price of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, give a subsidy of 4,000 yuan, and those with a purchase price of more than 300,000 yuan can receive 8,000 yuan of consumption vouchers.
Subsequently, on December 22, the Hubei Provincial Department of Commerce gave another 200 million yuan of "Preferential Purchase Hubei" automobile consumption voucher activity, which directly extended the subsidy policy to promote automobile consumption to March 31, 2024, and the subsidy amount was divided into three grades: 2,000 yuan, 3,000 yuan and 5,000 yuan. The subsidy period has been extended, but the subsidy has not been reduced.
The "price reduction" of these car brands is obviously for the sake of annual performance and sales. And the car companies with price reductions have one thing in common: there is no problem on the production side, and the data will look better if the sales side works hard, and there will be basically no situation where the production capacity cannot keep up while urging people to place orders.
Of course, the most out-of-the-circle Xinwenjie M7 in 2023 has the problem of delivery queues due to excessive order volume. After giving a compensation of 200 yuan per day for delayed delivery, it was recently proposed to give a subsidy of 3,000 yuan per car to car owners who did not show up before the Spring Festival. Just to stabilize the confidence of those who make up their minds.
This is also in stark contrast to the operation of "increasing the price of the car" as soon as the supply of joint venture cars, especially imported cars, exceeded demand in the past.
02 Large Corps Operations
Obviously, behind this round of collective price adjustment promotion is the annual sales pressure.
Based on the current market situation, "Explorer Travel" sorted out the sales of major domestic car companies and brands in the first 11 months of 2023, and found that there are three phenomena:
- In 2023, the sales of new energy vehicles will still maintain a growth rate of 30%, and the monthly penetration rate has reached 40%;
- Due to the blind target setting at the beginning of the year, the new energy vehicle brand has led to the general lack of achievement rate;
- The new energy brands of traditional car companies are gathering at an accelerated pace, and a "big melee" is about to begin.
Among them, there are several representative car companies. For example, in the first 11 months of 2023, only one ideal car company has completed its annual target, with a target achievement rate of about 108.57%. Geely seems to be the only large car company that basically meets the expected target (91.66% in the first 11 months), with a completion rate of about 93.10%.
Changan Automobile's two major new energy sub-brands, AVATR and Deep Blue Automobile, have achieved only 20 percent of the embarrassment due to their high expected goals. Recently, Changan Automobile's personnel transfer has also attracted market attention.
On December 12, AVATR announced that Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, will also serve as chairman of AVATAR, and Tan Benhong, former chairman of the board of directors, will be appointed deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Changan Automobile. On December 27, it was reported that Wang Jun, president of Changan Automobile, will concurrently serve as the chairman of its Deep Blue brand, and the general manager of Deep Blue Automobile will continue to serve as Deng Chenghao, who has been promoted to vice president of Changan Automobile.
The personnel transfer of AVATR and Deep Blue Automobile is obviously directly related to the annual performance "hitting the street".
It is worth mentioning that Nezha, whose sales far exceeded that of "Wei Xiaoli" in 2022, seem to have performed somewhat unsatisfactory in the first 11 months of 2023. Not only did it not achieve half of the target sales in 2023, but it was even less than the total sales in 2022, becoming one of the few mainstream NEV brands with a year-on-year decline in sales.
In addition, the sub-brands of large car companies, such as Zeekr, VOYANT, and Zhiji, have completed their assembly in 2023. After adjusting in 2023, these new brands born with a golden spoon have changed from inconspicuous traditional car company sub-brands to existences that can compete head-on with the "new car-making force" brand.
Of course, the sales of new energy vehicles under large traditional automobile groups such as Great Wall, Geely, Changan, and Guangzhou Automobile have also seen a year-on-year growth rate ranging from 30% to 100%. Of course, there are also SAIC and Dongfeng, whether it is overall or new energy, are not as good as the expected goals.
According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the cumulative sales of passenger cars in the first 11 months of 2023 will be about 19.345 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 6.808 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 35.2%.
It can be seen that new energy vehicles are still at a high growth rate of 30%, but the overall growth rate of passenger cars is only 5%. This also means that the total amount has not changed much, and the growth rate of new energy is rapid. The rapid growth of new energy also means that the crowding out of the fuel vehicle market is intensifying.
03 Conclusion
If 2022 is a year of demons dancing wildly, and all forces are rushing forward, then 2023 is a year of competing for the deer, accelerating the entry and gathering ready to go. 2024 will be a year of big waves, and a scuffle is inevitable.
Changan "discontinued the sale of traditional fuel vehicles", GAC "electrified all models", Dongfeng "doubled sales target", and FAW "launched 30 new energy vehicles...... The time node is locked in 2025, and the market performance in 2024 is extremely critical in order to achieve the expected goals in 2025.
The electrification and intelligent transformation of large car companies, coupled with the entry of Internet technology companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Baidu, and Didi, it is foreseeable that in the coming 2024, there will be a "big army" of Chinese car companies.
Whether it is accumulation or horizontal or horizontal, to borrow a word from Lei Jun's interview with CCTV, in 2024, Chinese car companies should always remember to "keep the right and be surprising". That is, to seek a breakthrough on the premise of not shaking the fundamentals, so as to find a suitable position in the market.
Instead of imagining the future on PPT, shouting slogans, setting goals, talking big, and paralyzing yourself with unrealistic virtual scenes.