The public fund was accused of adjusting its position and smashing the market, and the newly taken over fund manager sold TMT to buy coal, and the mystery is waiting to be revealed

Finance Associated Press, January 3 (Reporter Wu Yuqi) The market fell, and public funds came to take the blame again.

Today, a rumor about the public offering has attracted attention again, and many big Vs mentioned through social media that the reason for today's decline is to open up institutional net selling. However, according to the reporter's understanding, there is no adjustment in this regard in the public offering industry.

However, this rumor was soon covered by new rumors, which pointed to the rebalancing of a large number of fund managers after the departure of a large number of fund managers, and pointed out that there were too many fund manager replacements after the end of 2023, which led to an increase in liquidation-rebalancing.

The rumors are logical, and the reason for today's heavy decline in the TMT sector points to the adjustment of public funds to buy coal stocks. What is the real situation? This reporter learned from a number of public offerings that today's market adjustment is not what rumors point to. However, from the perspective of holdings, the funds that hold the TMT sector are indeed having a hard time, and there are not a few funds that have turned to coal stocks, and the truth will gradually emerge in subsequent disclosures.

On the second trading day of the new year, the three major A-share indexes opened lower in early trading, and the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out in the afternoon and rebounded, closing up slightly by 0.17%. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index remained sluggish, closing down 0.75% and 1.14% respectively. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50, which had previously performed well, also fell 0.41%, the Wind Micro Cap Index fell 0.5%, and Wind All A and Wind Shuangchuang both fell. The trading volume of A-shares was 756.69 billion yuan throughout the day, shrinking again, and more than 3,200 stocks were in a state of decline.

In terms of sectors, the core asset stocks collectively recovered in the afternoon, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, LONGi Green Energy, and CITIC Securities collectively turned up, CATL and Ping An of China narrowed their declines, and the coal sector led the rise; on the other hand, the TMT sector fell sharply as a whole, among them, the concept of semiconductors and robots fell first, Changying Precision, Sanhua Intelligent Control fell more than 6%, AI concept stocks collectively dived, Kingsoft Office fell 12.01%, Cambrian and iFLYTEK fell first.

Which funds are heavily positioned in TMT?

Looking back on the trend of the whole year of 2023, in the first half of the year, the TMT sector stood out, and the concept of artificial intelligence drove the media, communications, computers and other sectors to rise sharply, but in the second half of the year, the ebb tide of AI sentiment and the fluctuation of market fundamentals, the CSI TMT index peaked on June 2 and saw a sharp pullback, chasing into the TMT sector in the second and even third quarters, and the net value experienced sharp ups and downs.

The reporter noted that comparing the fund income in the first half of 2023 and the second half of 2023, it can be seen that the net value of the first half of the year rose brightly, but the second half of the year fell heavily, and more of the funds still held TMT in the second half of the year.

For example, the champion base in the first half of the year - Nord New Life, Wind data shows that Nord New Life is the first active equity fund to increase in the first half of the year, with a net value increase of more than 75%. But as of Dec. 29, the fund was down 46.60% in the second half of the year. As of the end of the third quarter, the heavy stocks of Nord New Life were TMT stocks such as Tianfu Communication, Yuanjie Technology, and Zhongji Innolight.

The same is true of the theme of Changsheng urbanization, the net value rose by more than 30% in the first half of the year, and the cumulative increase in the first half of the year fell in the second half of the year.

In addition, some of the funds that chased high into AI in the second quarter were also in a miserable situation in the second half of the year, such as Golden Eagle Smart Life, the fund was still heavy in wine stocks in the first quarter, and the top ten heavy stocks in the second quarter were "blood-swapped" to AI, the net value growth rate of Golden Eagle Smart Life in the first half of the year was 10.45%, and the decline in the second half of the year was 35.69%, and the top ten heavy stocks still hold more AI concept stocks, such as Kaiying Network, Kingsoft Office, iFLYTEK, etc.

From the perspective of fund heavy stocks, as of the end of the third quarter, there are not a few fund companies that hold TMT. Taking today's large decline in Jinshan Office as an example, a total of 447 funds hold heavy positions in the stock, involving 87 fund companies, with a total of 65,693,600 shares, and the ChinaAMC SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF holds the most, with 19,531,100 shares.

In the third quarter, a total of 266 funds held by iFLYTEK held heavy positions, with a total of 163.981 million shares, of which 10,000 shares and Huaan Media Internet A were the top shares, with 10 million shares and 5,575,700 shares respectively.

Coal stocks have become the main line of investment

Corresponding to TMT, coal stocks ushered in another highlight moment in the second half of last year, with high-dividend industries such as coal performing better, and the coal index rising by more than 10%. Entering 2024, with the support of strong fundamentals, the coal sector has continued its strong start in the capital market last year, and has become the main line of trading recently.

In terms of specific stock trends, in addition to the few stocks mentioned above, China Shenhua, the leader of the sector, rose 1.85% today, hitting a new high since 2008. Shanxi coking coal rose 4.06%, in the long run, China Shenhua rose 23.64% last year, Shaanxi coal industry also rose more than 26%, and Lu'an Huanneng rose 52.30%.

Wind data shows that a total of 32 stocks were heavily held by public funds in the third quarter, of which the largest number of funds held by China Shenhua, a total of 245, Yinhua Wealthy Theme held the most, 23,001,300 shares, Huatai Berry Dividend ETF, Guotai CSI Coal ETF and other ETF products held more, respectively 16,057,200 shares, 8,832,000 shares.

Shaanxi Coal Industry is also heavily held by 191 funds, with E Fund SSE 50 Enhanced A holding the most shares, with 48,799,800 shares, E Fund Core Advantage A and Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Shuangli A holding 26,774,600 shares and 15,081,500 shares.

Founder Securities released a research report saying that benefiting from the continued tight domestic and global supply and demand, the current coking coal price still has room to rise, and promotes the profitability of coal companies to increase steadily. At the same time, due to less capital expenditure, coal companies have a higher proportion of funds available for dividends. It is expected that the coking coal sector with low valuation and high dividends will be valued by the market in the future, and the valuation of coking coal companies is expected to increase with the improvement of performance expectations.

A total of 128 fund managers left their posts in the past month

As mentioned above, the reason for today's large number of public offerings is the adjustment of positions caused by the replacement of fund managers of some products, and the reporter found that in the past month (2023.12.3-2024.1.3), a total of 128 fund managers have left, involving a total of 188 products (A/C shares are calculated together).

In terms of newly hired fund managers, a total of 282 new fund managers were hired in the past month, involving 356 products.

In this regard, there is a market view that at the beginning of 2024, defensive stocks such as coal have become a joint force in the market, and due to fund performance problems, a large number of fund managers have left and small institutions have been liquidated, resulting in the beginning stage of the new net worth ranking after the year, and the newly taken over fund managers began to liquidate a large number of positions, cut off all the positions of the previous one, and replaced them with their own models. This kind of selling pressure has been present since the beginning of the year, but it generally does not cause market turmoil. But in 2023, there will be too many fund manager changes, and this will be the outcome.

(Finance Associated Press reporter Wu Yuqi)