Introduction:
Why could the historical dynasties of the Central Plains not last for 300 years? The rule of the Central Plains dynasties, such as the Tang Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty, and the Qing Dynasty, has not lasted for more than 300 years in history. People usually attribute the cause of the dynasty's demise to fortuitous events such as traitorous lords, peasant uprisings, beauties misleading the country, and foreign invasions. But no, I'll reveal the real reason below.
climate
Zhu Kezhen, the founder of meteorology in China, combined the research of phenology, historiography, chronicles and instrumental observations to roughly divide the climate change in the past 5,000 years into four warm periods and four low periods. Coincidentally, there is a fundamental correspondence between these climate changes and the rise and fall of dynasties.
In other words, climate turned out to be the most likely factor affecting the duration of the dynasty.
According to statistics, the warm periods with higher temperatures in the middle of the 5,000 years in China successively appeared in the Xia Dynasty, Shang Dynasty, Qin Dynasty and Han Dynasty, Tang Dynasty and Ming Dynasty. The low temperature period corresponds to the Western Zhou Dynasty, the Three Kingdoms and the Wei, Jin, Southern and Northern Dynasties, the Two Song Dynasties and the late Qing Dynasty. Dynasties in the warm period were strong and well-developed, while dynasties in the lower temperature period were more likely to be turbulent and frequently changed regimes. On the surface, this natural law that dictates the course of history may seem absurd, but it is actually well understood.
Climate affects agriculture
As a country with a long agricultural civilization, the Chinese have long been aware of the importance of time for agricultural output. Climate change will directly affect the food income of the dynasty, which will affect the economic, political and social stability of the dynasty, and ultimately determine the rise and fall of the dynasty. When the climate tends to be warmer, agricultural production is relatively stable, and grain production increases substantially. Even a ruler of average ability can gradually increase his national power through a period of accumulation as long as he reduces taxes and promotes development. At the same time, when the national strength is strong, it can also adopt a tough attitude in diplomacy, maintain internal and external tranquility, and achieve national peace and security. If the king has great ambitions, like Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty and Emperor Yongle, he can still take tough measures against the northern nomads and achieve brilliant results, so as to expand the territory and establish immortal achievements.
Conversely, the cold period, when the temperature drops, brings a series of problems. As a result of the decline in agricultural output, the people's food income is meagre and hunger is rife. At this time, if the imperial court does not handle it properly, the taxes are too heavy, and the burden on the people is increased, and the social contradictions will intensify, which will lead to large-scale uprisings and wars. As a result, the low temperature period is usually also the peak period of war in China. Whether it was the Zhu Yuanzhang Uprising at the end of the Yuan Dynasty, the Li Zicheng Uprising at the end of the Ming Dynasty, or even the Taiping Rebellion at the end of the Qing Dynasty, these wars all occurred during the period when the climate became colder.
Climate affects animal husbandry
Northern nomads are also affected by the climate, and the cold and arid climate limits the development of animal husbandry. For every 2 degrees Celsius drop in temperature, the forage growth period will be reduced by 40 days, resulting in a large reduction in grassland livestock and a shortage of materials for grassland residents. In order to survive, they had to invade south in order to obtain resources for survival. This led to the internal and external difficulties of the Central Plains Dynasty.
Therefore, since ancient times, most of the north has been the main battlefield of ethnic conflicts, while the south has rarely been disturbed by Yi tribes. It is only because the south is located in the tropics and is rarely affected by temperature, and the people of the north migrate to the south in large numbers to escape the war and cold climate, especially in the Southern Song Dynasty, a large number of Han people moved from the Yellow River basin to the Yangtze River basin, which caused the economic center of gravity to be difficult to shift.
In short, historically, periods of low temperatures plunged dynasties into a vicious cycle of reduced grain production, peasant uprisings, northern invasions, and poor treasury. In this case, if you add a few mediocre or mediocre monarchs, the demise of the dynasty becomes inevitable. This is also the reason why the natural law of climate can influence history.
The correlation between climate and national economy, stability, and war
Further analysis of this law in history can verify that the Qin and Han dynasties were the second warm period in the history of Chinese civilization. At that time, subtropical plants such as bamboo and mulberry hemp were not only cultivated in subtropical areas, but also in places such as Shandong and Shaanxi. The Qin Dynasty encouraged agricultural production and built a large number of artificial canals and other water conservancy projects, which significantly increased agricultural output and national strength. By the Han Dynasty, the warm period still continued, the society was stable, and the economy developed rapidly. Relying on the abundant material accumulation and solid foundation of his rule, Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty turned defense into offense, defeated the Xiongnu, and doubled his territory. During the reign of Emperor Xuan of the Han Dynasty, the national power of the Han Dynasty reached its peak. However, since the founding of Emperor Cheng of the Western Han Dynasty four years ago, the climate has gradually become colder, the drought has intensified, the grain production has decreased, the famine has appeared, and the social contradictions have intensified, providing an opportunity for Wang Mang to usurp the Han Dynasty.
At the beginning of the Sui and Tang dynasties, the continental climate gradually ended the low temperature period of nearly 600 years and entered the warm period. Good climatic conditions have prolonged the growing period of crops, increased yields, achieved rapid economic development, and alleviated social contradictions. This is also the reason why the Sui Dynasty accumulated huge grain reserves in just over 30 years.
However, after the Anshi Rebellion, in the middle of the eighth century, the northern climate turned cold again. The strengthening of the winter monsoon caused the climate in East Asia to be dry, grain production declined, the treasury was empty, taxes were heavier, and frequent rebellions broke out, shaking the foundation of the Tang Dynasty's rule and eventually going into decline.
Zhao Kuangyin
The temperature in the early Northern Song Dynasty dropped slightly compared to the Tang Dynasty, but it was not prominent, and it was roughly similar to the modern climate. However, from the second year of the reign of Emperor Taizong of the Song Dynasty, the temperature dropped sharply and entered a period of continuous low temperatures. According to historical records, near the Grand Canal near Suzhou, it was common for the boatmen to freeze in winter, and boatmen had to use hammers to break the ice to sail. The lychees grown in Fuzhou were even frozen to death. The elephants in the Yellow River basin have also migrated to the south, so that in the abbreviation of the word "Henan" in Henan Province, only their people are seen, but not their elephants.
This cold weather had a severe impact on the nomads in the north, and their lives became difficult. At the same time, the loss of the Sixteen Prefectures of Yanyun provided an opportunity for these nomads to invade south. Liao, Jin and Xia successively conquered the Central Plains, while the Mongols conquered the Southern Song Dynasty in one fell swoop, and finally settled in Beijing.
At the beginning of the Ming Dynasty, the temperature warmed, which created favorable conditions for the stability and development of the Ming Dynasty, and the grain harvest was abundant. Periods of economic prosperity occurred continuously, such as the reign of Yongle and the reign of Renxuan. Even in the face of setbacks such as the Tumubao Change, the Ming Dynasty was able to rise to the occasion and rise again.
However, from the 28th year of the Wanli period of Mingshenzong, the Central Plains region once again entered a low temperature period, the climate became cold, and droughts were frequent.
During the reign of Chongzhen, a 17-year drought broke out, resulting in poor harvests, starving people everywhere, and starvation everywhere. In order to make a living, people had to take risks to join the peasant rebels. At the same time, the Ming Dynasty's treasury was stretched thin and there was a shortage of military salaries. Although Chongzhen tried to save the situation, he couldn't do anything. Comrade Li Zicheng, an excellent courier, successfully invaded Beijing, and at the same time, the northeast wind and rain were smooth, and the Manchu Qing Dynasty waved south in four seasons to pick the fruits of victory, and the Ming Dynasty perished.
Epilogue:
Although the rise and fall of the Han, Tang, Song and Ming dynasties was influenced by other historical factors, climate change has always been on its side. This makes people sigh at the rise and fall of history, and the perfect conditions of "time, place, and people" that those successful eras possess are crucial, and no one of them can promote the course of history. Governing society is not a simple process that can be achieved overnight. If God doesn't make beauty. Even if you try your best, not only will you not be able to rule the world peacefully, but you will also become the best pendant on the crooked neck tree if you are not careful. The common people who watch the sky and eat are coerced by the wheel of history, and their lives are miserable, and they cannot get rid of this limitation. This is precisely the limitation of low productivity and resilience in the age of farming.