The development of Sino-Japanese relations over the past few years has not been optimistic, mainly because the Japanese side lacks sincerity in developing relations with China, and the Japanese media have once again demonstrated this at the beginning of the new year. According to the Yomiuri Shimbun report, on the morning of the last day of 2023, the Japanese side spotted four Chinese coast guard ships patrolling the waters near the Diaoyu Islands, bringing the number of days the Chinese coast guard was active in the waters near the Diaoyu Islands to a record 352 days last year!
According to anonymous sources quoted by Kyodo News, throughout 2024, the Chinese coast guard plans to maintain daily patrols in the waters near the Diaoyu Islands and will board Japanese fishing boats for inspections if necessary. At the same time, the Japanese media also claimed that this is the first time that China has formulated a plan to board and inspect Japanese ships, and once implemented, it is likely to cause friction and even occasional conflicts between China and Japan near the Diaoyu Islands. If you want to briefly summarize these views rendered by the Japanese media, it can basically be summed up in one sentence, that is, China and Japan may have big trouble in the waters of the Diaoyu Islands in 2024. Why, then, is the Japanese side so keen to hype up the Sino-Japanese conflict that it has now brought up the issue of the Diaoyu Islands, which has been dormant for several years?
In fact, the Fumio Kishida administration's hype of the Diaoyu Islands issue can be described as a drunkard's intention not to drink, ostensibly to compete with China for control of the Diaoyu Islands, but in fact to create another ignition point around China. In recent years, Japan has become more and more actively involved in geopolitical affairs around China, most notably the Taiwan Strait issue and the South China Sea issue. Generally speaking, Japan is fanning the flames of the South China Sea issue and instigating countries in the South China Sea to confront China. On the other hand, Japan is desperately urging the United States and its allies to get deeply involved in the Taiwan issue in an attempt to prevent China from realizing national reunification. A prime example of this is the fact that the Tokyo authorities significantly strengthened their cooperation with the NATO bloc and the G7 countries last year, and there is a growing number of people in Japan who have made no secret of their desire to deter China through cooperation with these countries. Some people say that if Japan now raises its arms, the other six G7 countries will support Japan on the Diaoyu Islands issue, but this may not be alarmist.
However, although the Japanese government is trying to overwhelm China by uniting external forces, it is very difficult for the Kishida government to realize its intentions. The key question is that while Japan has a very strong strategic will to contain China, how strong the rest of the world is willing to follow the United States and Japan in confronting China is another matter. Now it seems that, with the exception of Japan and a few core US allies, most of the countries in the G7 and NATO bloc have no intention of treating China as a mortal enemy. After all, China, as the world's second largest economy and the largest economic and trade exporter, has a vital impact on the world economy, and it may not be so easy for Japan to pull other countries together to become enemies of China.
In the final analysis, the friction between China and Japan in the waters off the Diaoyu Islands and the overall development of bilateral relations will depend on whether Japan's attitude changes. On the issue of sovereignty, China has no room for concession, and there is no doubt that China will firmly safeguard its sovereign interests, whether it is in the Diaoyu Islands or the Taiwan Strait. If Japan is still keen to hype up the topic of Sino-Japanese conflict and try to pull foreign countries to intervene against China in the future, it will be very difficult for Sino-Japanese relations to develop in a positive direction. Instead of trying in vain and danger to prevent China's development, it is better to accept the reality of China's rise and to coexist and develop together with China, which is the real way out for Japan to prosper.