In 2023, the general environment is turbulent, and the tide of the technology circle is still surging.
Large models open up a new world of AI, Vision Pro leads spatial computing, smart trams surpass oil vehicles, Pinduoduo "new king" has been established, smart phones are innovating, new hardware is emerging one after another, HarmonyOS system is accelerating growth, and AI chips drive everything...... In 2023, there are too many major events in the tech industry.
Among them, the "2023 Please Answer" series will systematically sort out the companies, products, technologies and people worth recording in the technology industry in 2023, and the "2024 Observatory" series will look forward to the "spoilers" of the products and technologies worth looking forward to in the technology industry in 2024, continue to output high-quality content, pay tribute to innovation, record the times, and think about the past to inspire the future.
2023 is a revolutionary year for the mobile technology sector, shaping every aspect of our digital lives. It was a year of jaw-dropping evolution of mobile technology, which redefined the way we interact with the digital world with its trendsetting attitude. In this wave of technological change, ten important mobile technologies have emerged, driving sweeping changes at the social, economic, and personal levels.
一、AI大模型（AI LLM）
If the technology keywords in 2022 are still to be discussed, then the keywords in 2023 are obviously AI, specifically various generative AI applications that rely on AI large language models. ChatGPT, for example, was originally released at the end of 2022 but exploded on Chinese social media in March 2023.
Overnight, almost all named Internet companies have announced that they want to accelerate their entry into the AI field, and a number of domestic companies such as Microsoft, Google, Baidu, and NetEase have released their own AI models and development tools, hoping to find their own new track in the AI market. Even Meituan founder Wang Xing has announced in a high-profile manner that he will "start a second business" in the field of AI.
Image source: OpenAI
This AI storm has not only triggered the AI war of Internet giants, but also profoundly affected ordinary people like you and me. AI LLMs have given generative AI a powerful understanding of natural semantics and greater creativity, and even sparked a discussion about AI's own copyrighted content. This powerful creative ability has changed the way content creators work, and it has also had an impact on the work of some content creators.
For example, the "Hollywood Screenwriters Strike" that started in May 2023 was originally just a normal labor dispute, but in the end it turned into a conflict between "human screenwriters" and "AI screenwriters". For example, the once popular game visual designers and dialogue writers have also been hit by the rich application of generative AI, and some game companies have directly replaced grassroots designers and writers with AI tools - "I originally thought that technology could only replace simple manual labor, but I didn't expect that the rapid development of AI threatened content creators as soon as it came. 」
Of course, the impact of AI LLM technology on the world is far more than that: AI computing clusters consume a lot of energy, and at the same time, the requirements for HPC (high-performance computing) equipment are also higher. This is a challenge and an opportunity for domestic technology companies. The outbreak of AI LLM has made the world's technology companies once again stand on the same starting line, and whether they can surpass depends on the next performance of domestic enterprises.
2. Mobile phone satellite communication
In August 2023, Huawei launched the "HUAWEI Mate 60 Pro Pioneer Program", which allows users to purchase the latest product in the Huawei Mate series, the Huawei Mate 60 Pro, before the official product launch. Judging from Huawei's stocking situation, the sudden start of sales seems to be a requirement of the "superstructure". But judging from the grand occasion that it is difficult to find a machine after the release, the Huawei Mate 60 series has obviously won the big bet:
The emergence of the Mate 60 Pro has raised the network of mobile phones to a new level - 5G is only the entry threshold of flagship mobile phones, and satellite communication is the sea of stars for future flagship mobile phones.
Image source: Ray Technology
To be fair, before the Huawei Mate 60 Pro came out, there were also phones on the market that supported satellite communication, and even Android added software support for satellite communication years ago. But the advent of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro has brought down the cost of satellite communications to an unprecedented level. In the past, if we wanted to experience satellite communication, we needed to buy a satellite mobile phone and open an extremely expensive satellite call tariff package. This makes satellite communication a communication tool that only a very small number of outdoor practitioners and water workers will consider.
However, with the joint efforts of Huawei and China Telecom, satellite communication is no longer a special tool that can only be experienced by a very small number of professional users, but an emergency communication measure that ordinary consumers like you and me can use, use well, and afford. Simpler operation methods, better sound effects, and more friendly tariff packages, this set of "combination punches" has even resonated with other domestic mobile phone brands.
From this point of view, Huawei has indeed found a new "overtaking point" that belongs to Chinese mobile phones.
3. ARM mobile phone hyper-threading technology
In the "hastily released" Huawei Mate 60 Pro, we saw another bold attempt by Huawei in the field of mobile phone chips - Kirin 9000s. In the eyes of most people, the significance of this chip is to give a big slap in the face to the "5G ban". But in my opinion, there is another important historical significance of this one - the Kirin 9000s once again brought ARM hyper-threading technology back to the mainstream market.
Image source: Ray Technology
In fact, before this, there were also products in the ARM chip field that could support hyper-threading technology, such as MediaTek's Dimensity 1100/1200 and Samsung Exynos 2200. However, GeekBench 6 data shows that the Kirin 9000s adopts a configuration of 1 large core + 3 medium core + 4 small cores, of which the 2.62GHz large core and the 2.12GHz core can be used as multiple abstract logical cores at the logical level.
Although the Kirin 9000s's hyper-threading technology needs to be further optimized by the system and apps, this technology can make the phone more efficient when handling graphics, voice, and AI tasks. In the future, as the ARM architecture continues to evolve, hyper-threading technology will be further integrated into a new generation of chips to bring more powerful computing power to smartphones. This will drive performance improvements in areas such as gaming, photography, and virtual reality, providing users with a better mobile experience.
4. X Elite architecture
Although non-x86 architecture PCs are not new, and Apple Silicon has also fought back and forth with the "wintel alliance" with ARM's structural characteristics, the Snapdragon X Elite chip, released in October 2023, is definitely a rising star in the mobile PC field in 2023 in my opinion.
On the surface, the Snapdragon X Elite configuration itself is not ordinary. Unlike Apple Silicon's "big and small cores" or Core's "big and small cores" and "large, medium and small cores", the Snapdragon X Elite chip uses three sets of 12 CPU cores at 3.8GHz, which overclocks the standard cores to 4.3GHz only when there is a high load.
Image source: Ray Technology
Although this design looks no different from the traditional large and small cores in the end, from the perspective of the system design architecture, the use of a unified core design can effectively avoid the performance scheduling problems caused by the software not matching the large and small cores, and at the same time help the complexity and yield rate of the chip.
But more importantly, the Snapdragon X Elite is also a PC processor designed specifically for the future of AI computing. Through the collaboration with Microsoft, the Snapdragon X Elite has successfully brought the concept of "NPU" to the Windows platform, providing a new path beyond the CUDA unit for AI computing on Windows computers.
Although the number and performance of CUDA are still one of the hard indicators for us to evaluate Windows HPC, considering that AI technology will also be used in all aspects of our digital life in the future, CUDA HPC with large volume and high power consumption is not the best carrier for mobile AI.
Although the current strength of Snapdragon X Elite cannot be compared with traditional HPC, as a new carrier of AI edge computing, the "new force" of Windows led by Snapdragon X Elite is also immeasurable in the future.
5. FSR 3.0 graphics technology
How to achieve more efficient picture rendering with limited graphics card performance is the consistent technology iteration direction of GPU brands. The advent of AI technology has also given rise to technologies such as DLSS and FSR that use oversampling technology to reduce GPU load and improve the level of image detail. But for a long time, both DLSS and FSR were only available for specific games on specific hardware, and there was no "technology sharing" between the two in any sense.
Although the two are different technologies, the principle and effect are the same, both use AI algorithms to simulate similar pixels in the picture, and then fill in the picture, through this clever way to improve the number of game frames at high resolution and high image quality. Today, both DLSS and FSR have been iterated to the third generation, with DLSS only supporting booting on NVIDIA's discrete graphics cards, while AMD's FSR has chosen the open-source solution because the technology is slightly backward.
Image source: AMD
In the early days, FSR's open-source solution mainly allowed small and medium-sized game companies and studios to add super-score support to their games, so that players could get a better experience, and FSR and DLSS could not be turned on at the same time, so they could be regarded as making progress together. However, at the end of 2023, some users have successfully made RTX and RX graphics cards realize the second call of FSR to DLSS, and some have successfully ported the FSR algorithm to RTX graphics cards. In terms of performance improvement, this technology can be said to break the hardware monopoly of NVIDIA's multi-DLSS3.0 technology, allowing old graphics cards to have double the graphics performance.
You must know that in 2023, when the performance of the new graphics card has encountered a bottleneck, the only thing that the graphics card brand uses to control the product layout is hardware castration and software limitations, and the open source porting of FSR 3.0 directly breaks this software blockade, so that the old graphics card from two years ago can also be rejuvenated. For veteran gamers who are holding on to the currency due to the high price of graphics cards, the FSR 3.0 port is definitely a surprise that can be met but not sought.
6. Huawei Starlight
In recent years, wireless technology has become the main development direction of peripherals, from mice to keyboards, from headphones to speakers, wireless has become the main selling point of many new products, and people are looking for ways to get rid of the shackles of cables and make their experience more free. The soaring demand for wireless peripherals has also led to the rapid development of wireless technology, from Bluetooth to 2.4G and other wireless protocols such as miniaturization, low power consumption, and high speed, which are enabling us to have a better wireless connection experience.
Huawei Starlight can be said to be the most noteworthy new player in the field of wireless near-field transmission this year.
Image source: Huawei
Different from Qualcomm and Sony's wireless transmission solutions based on Bluetooth, Starlink provides SLE and SLB two connection technology bottoms, and uses the new Polar code for protocol compilation, this new coding system is far superior to the coding system used by Bluetooth in terms of efficiency, and achieves transmission performance that is infinitely close to the channel limit.
Starlight also has exaggerated technical indicators: the delay is less than 20 microseconds, the multi-point synchronization accuracy is less than 1 microsecond, the reliability is greater than 99.999% under 20dB random burst interference, and the peak spectral efficiency of a single stream is greater than 5bps/Hz. Behind the amazing technical indicators of Starlight, it is a complete reconstruction of wireless technology, compared with traditional Bluetooth technology, Starlink is more like a variant of 5G technology, it has many 5G characteristics, but it is greatly simplified, you can think of this as a specialized 5G technology, but also integrated part of Wi-Fi technology in it.
Compared with all the current mainstream wireless protocols, even the latest Apple enhanced Bluetooth patents are lower than Starlight in terms of bandwidth and latency, and, based on two different wireless bottom layers, Starlighter's bandwidth upper and lower limits are extremely large, which can reach 100kbps~12Mbps. The flexible channel design allows Starlight to run in very low power mode according to the actual needs of the device, improving the battery life or reducing the size of small wireless devices.
To some extent, Starlighter's technical specifications are very close to the next-generation Bluetooth 7.0 being developed by the Bluetooth Alliance, but Starlight is now commercially available, while Bluetooth 6.0 is still in the testing stage. As a global electronic manufacturing center, Chinese enterprises have a lot of voice in the field of electronic digital, and will become the main force in the implementation of Starlight in the future.
7. End-side AI processors
AI, a highly discussed topic this year, whenever we mention the wonderful use of AI, most people ignore the success of AI, in fact, it is closely related to the rapid development of our chip industry in recent years, interestingly, chips have contributed to a new generation of AI, and AI has contributed to a new generation of processors.
In December 2023, Intel released the Core Ultra series processors, which are Intel's first consumer-grade processors that support the deployment of AI models on the device side.
Image source: Intel
For example, the NPU can support up to 20 billion AI models for local deployment, which can meet the daily use in most cases, and functions such as dialogue, data sorting, Q&A, and Wensheng diagrams can be completely generated by the local NPU without using the cloud AI model.
Although the device-side AI model does not have the super magnitude of the cloud AI model, it has higher security, so that it can be adjusted according to the user's own needs in practical applications, and there is no need to worry about the leakage of sensitive information such as personal privacy information and confidential documents during use, further strengthening the security of the AI model.
In addition, the device-side AI model can be used in a network-free state, which not only responds faster than cloud AI, but also has a wider range of applications, and can be widely used in hardware that is not suitable for connecting to external networks. In fact, judging from the trends of several major processor brands in 23 years, whether there is a locally deployed AI model will become a watershed between traditional PCs and AI PCs, and with the help of AI, PCs in the new era will be very different in terms of performance scheduling, ease of use, and experience.
8. Mobile phone car machine interconnection
In the past few years, the news of Geely Group's relationship with Meizu Technology has come out, and the outside world has determined that the two sides will cooperate in the experience of mobile phones and cars, Meizu will receive funds and resources to inject into the research and development of mobile phones and other products, and Geely is expected to make improvements in the direction of car machines and other intelligent directions. But on the Meizu 20 and Lynk & Co 08 released in March 2023, we finally saw the true face of this set of car-machine interconnection.
Image source: Tram Pass
As far as the mainstream car is concerned, the car machine is no longer an independent multimedia terminal, and the function is no longer used to set navigation, display the image data sent by the corresponding camera when reversing and changing lanes;
However, according to data released by Counterpoint in 2022, the average replacement cycle of mobile phone users is 31 months, while Strategy Analytics believes that the average replacement cycle of Chinese users is 28 months. Changing mobile phones is more frequent than changing cars, which fundamentally limits the speed at which the intelligence of the car machine cannot catch up with the intelligence of the mobile phone. This also means that no matter how the car machine catches up, the intelligence of the mobile phone will always go faster and farther than the intelligence of the car machine.
So why do we still put the right to speak on the so-called "smart car machine" that was finalized a year or even earlier? The car provides sensors and raw data, and the mobile phone is processed and then returned to the car machine, so that more advanced and smarter mobile phones become the core of car intelligence, in my opinion, this complementarity is a better intelligent solution.
9. Folding screen mobile phones
In 2023, almost every leading brand is making folding screens, including Samsung, Huawei, OPPO, vivo, Honor, Motorola, Transsion, Google, etc. In addition, the trend of small folding products will continue in 2023, with the emergence of models such as the OPPO Find N3 Flip, vivo X Flip, Transsion Phantom V Flip, Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 5, and Motorola razr 40. The advantage of a small folding screen is that the cost and price are lower, making it easier for users to pay, and at the same time, the smaller body and higher appearance can be more impressive.
In terms of large folding, the competition is also very fierce, and some manufacturers even play machine sea tactics. Honor released three folding screen products, Magic V2, Vs2, and V Purse, while Huawei launched two products, Mate X3 and Mate X5. Samsung, OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, and Transsion will naturally not be absent, and Google, as the leader of Android, has also released its first folding screen, Pixel Fold.
Image source: Ray Technology
Relatively speaking, large folding tests the strength of manufacturers, from the balance between thinness and reliability, to the technical reserves behind the hinge hinge, to the construction of the folding screen system and ecology, all of which do not require the brand's efforts. Behind the keel hinge of Xiaomi MIX Fold 3, Huawei's dual-spin waterdrop hinge, and Samsung's "super closed Seiko hinge" folding screen solution, they are all concentrated displays of manufacturers' technological achievements.
In addition, the sales proportion of folding screen products is still not high, but it still maintains rapid growth. Taking DSCC data as an example, DSCC data shows that in Q2 2023, the global shipment of folding screens will be 2.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42%; In Q3, the global shipment of folding screens was 7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16%. With the maturity of technology and the reduction of costs, folding screens will be further popularized in the future and play a more important role in the mobile phone industry.
10. Self-developed system
It may be that seeing the success of Huawei Hongmeng, all mobile phone brands have accelerated the pace of self-developed systems this year. In March 2023, Meizu brought Flyme to the Lynk & Co 08, launched FlymeAuto, and renamed the mobile phone system to Unbounded OS at the end of the year. In October, Xiaomi surging OS was officially released, as a self-developed system, the most important thing for surging OS is to complete the underlying reconstruction, and can be applied to mobile phones, tablets, wearables, IoT and car machine products. In November, vivo brought the BlueOS blue river system, and integrated the AI model into the underlying design, which can help developers at the application development level.
Image source: Xiaomi
Domestic brands have made efforts in self-developed systems, in the final analysis, they want to grasp more autonomy and build their own ecological advantages. With the rapid increase in the number of smart devices, almost every leading manufacturer has to consider how to integrate and manage a large number of devices. At this time, Android, which is autonomous in the hands of Google, seems to be a little powerless. The common denominator of systems such as HarmonyOS, Surging OS, and Unbounded OS is that they can be used for different forms of devices, and the same set of applications and services can be transferred in their own ecosystems.
summary
In 2023, mobile technology is booming at a breakneck rate, shaping every aspect of our lives. AI technology alone has opened up countless possibilities. The innovation of mobile technology has not only changed the way we interact with the digital world, but also brought unprecedented opportunities and challenges to all walks of life. This year, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, edge computing and other technologies were deeply integrated with mobile devices, injecting new vitality into smart cities, healthcare, education and other fields.
In the future, we expect mobile technology to continue to drive social progress and serve as a catalyst for connecting the world and fostering innovation. May we usher in 2024 and usher in a smarter, more inclusive and more advanced era of mobile technology.
CES (Las Vegas International Consumer Electronics Show) 2024 is about to be grandly opened, and Lei Technology will send a reporting team led by "One Tianming" to Las Vegas, Nevada, USA CES 2024 on-site reporting, so stay tuned.