Deeply bound humanoid robot UBTECH, a brief analysis of the fundamentals and highlights of the EPS motor faucet

Founded in January 2002, committed to the development and production of motors and household vacuum cleaners, the products are mainly for the European and American markets, the company has successfully developed more than 30 YDC series motors, and automotive EPS motors, brake motors, etc., in 2012 and the international well-known vacuum cleaner brand TTI, in 2017 the establishment of a subsidiary Ningbo Johnson Technology Co., Ltd., is committed to the development and production of automotive EPS brushless motors, in 2019 with the new North American customer HOT to complete the cooperation to promote, into the family health care industry; In 2021, it was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and in 23 years, it established the Guangzhou Humanoid Robot Innovation Center with UBTECH and others to enter the frameless torque motor business of humanoid robots.

2. Description of the company's main products

The company's business is divided into 2 categories, small household appliance motors and OEM and automotive EPS motors and brake motors 2 blocks, and the frameless torque motor for robots is currently strategically deployed and cooperated with UBTECH.

1) Small household appliance motor and home appliance OEM business: mainly vacuum cleaner motors, vacuum cleaners, curling irons and other small household appliances OEM.

2) The company's EPS motor and brake motor business

The expansion of the company's EPS motor and brake motor business began in 16 years and maintained a strategic layout. The core of the EPS system is the power steering system that directly relies on the motor to provide auxiliary torque, which has the characteristics of low energy consumption, flexible parameters and easy maintenance compared with the traditional hydraulic power steering system.

3. Description of the company's equity structure and main subsidiaries

The company's equity is concentrated, the actual controller is Huang Yuchang, Zhang Liying and Huang Shi, and Pegatron Enterprise Management is the controlling shareholder controlled by the actual controller of the company, the proportion of direct and indirect holding of the three is about 63.55%, and there are 9 wholly-owned subsidiaries, the company's management team members have many years of industry experience, and have accumulated rich experience in research and development, production and sales.

2. Composition and analysis of the company's main business

1. The composition and proportion of the company's revenue

The company's revenue can be roughly divided into vacuum cleaner OEM, small household appliances OEM and EPS motor business, of which the vacuum cleaner business is mainly the business of TTI customers, small household appliances in 19 years of 074 million and HOT cooperation gradually increased to 23 years H1 of 432 million has accounted for 32%, EPS motor in 21 years of fixed points gradually increased after the current rapid volume stage.

2. The company's business revenue and gross profit margin

1) Vacuum cleaner business is the company's basic disk revenue accounted for more than 55%, from the gross profit margin point of view, the company after 21 years because of the rise in exchange rates and raw material prices, the company's gross profit margin fell from more than 26% to 16% in 22 years, but from the 23 years of semi-annual report can be seen to have a rebound trend.

2) The small household appliance business is mainly HOT and this year's new Shark customers, like vacuum cleaners, the gross profit margin has also declined significantly in 21 and 22 years, and H1 has rebounded slightly in 23 years, mainly because the company's new business in HOT and Shark is increasing, and the overall proportion of revenue has increased to 32% in H1 23.

3) The automotive EPS motor business mainly began to bear fruit in 21 years, with the 22 years of fixed-point orders (see Part 4) will have a relatively large proportion of revenue performance contribution in 24-26 years, and will also promote the effective improvement of the company's net profit and gross profit margin.

3. The company's main financial indicators

1. Analysis of revenue and profit

The company's revenue increased from 1.2 billion in the first 18 years of listing to 2.8 billion in 21 years, and the amount decreased to 1.9 billion in 22 years due to the decline in orders for vacuum cleaner OEM business in 22 years, and 2.1 billion yuan as of Q3 in 23 years.

The absolute value and growth rate of operating profit and net profit are basically the same, the focus ability of the main business is good, and the operating profit and net profit have increased from about 150 million in 18 years to about 300 million in 22 years, and it is not bad to basically double in 5 years.

2. Analysis of gross profit margin and net profit margin

The company's gross profit fell from more than 25% before listing to 18.33% in Q3 of 23, the biggest influencing factor is that as an OEM and overseas export-oriented enterprises, the order dependence on large customers is better, and the capacity utilization rate has a greater impact on the overall gross profit margin of the company's products, and the company has been investing heavily in the expansion of EPS motors in recent years, EPS has millions of revenue contributions in 21 years, 80 million in 22 years, and the gross profit is basically zero and has a greater impact;

The net profit margin has been maintained at a level of more than 10%, of course, the higher proportion in 22 years is due to the positive contribution of the company's listing funds to financial expenses in 22 years, resulting in a greater impact on the overall expense ratio reduction.

3. The indicators of various expense ratios

The company's overall expense ratio has rapidly decreased from 10% in 18 years to 1.7% in 22 years, which is the biggest influencing factor in combination with the financial expense ratio.

The company's management expense rate and R&D expense rate have not changed much as a whole, and the sales expense rate has been controlled below 0.5% after 20 years as the reason for the OEM type and fixed-point more, which is still relatively good overall.

4. The company's total asset turnover rate, inventory turnover rate and accounts receivable turnover rate

The company's accounts receivable and inventory turnover rate has improved significantly in the 22-year interim report, and more than 90% of the company's revenue is overseas customers.

5. The company's return on net assets and asset-liability ratio

The biggest factor in the reduction of the company's asset-liability ratio in 21 years is the deceleration of liabilities after the listing of funds raised, and it is still good to maintain it at a level of more than 30.

The return on net assets is of little significance before listing, in 21 years after the listing of 22 years, including the past 23 years, in the case of a small leverage ratio to maintain more than 10%, with the recovery of small household appliances and the volume of EPS motors, there is hope that the next year will be close to 15 excellent going up.

6. The company's cash-to-cash ratio and net-to-cash ratio

Judging from the annual net present ratio and cash-to-cash ratio, the impact of the epidemic in 20 and 21 is less than 100%, including 23 years and other years, the company's part is still relatively good, and it is not a big problem in cash flow.

7. Comparison of the three major parts of the company's cash flow statement

Now talking about the overall cash flow, the biggest change is that the cash flow increase brought by the listing and fundraising in 21 years has increased rapidly by 1.4 billion, and the company has also made obvious moves and investments in expansion in 22 and 23 years.

1) The company's cash flow from operating activities: cash flow from operating activities has always been positive, due to the rapid growth of overseas epidemic demand in 20 and 21 years, the revenue and net profit growth rate is relatively poor, but in 22 years, including Q3 as of 23, it is still good, which can better cover the demand for cash flow from investment activities.

2) Cash flow of the company's investment activities: mainly after 21 years of listing, the company raised funds to continuously invest in several new production projects and R&D center projects, because the first raised funds and better operating cash flow are more guaranteed.

3) Cash flow from financing activities: It is relatively simple to raise a lot of cash in 21 years of listing, and then gradually repay some interest-bearing liabilities in 22 and 23 years, which is more clear compared with the financial expense ratio.

Fourth, the company's short- and medium-term performance estimates and humanoid robot opportunity prospects

1. The company's main product production, sales, orders and production capacity

1) The production and sales of the company's small household appliance OEM business

The company started with small household appliances with motors, and gradually increased to the whole machine OEM business because of its excellent technical capabilities and cost control, the main major customers are TTI, HOT and Shark and other internationally renowned home appliance manufacturers, the company's huge growth in 21 years is mainly due to the stocking affected by the epidemic, and the weakening of inventory and demand after the opening of foreign countries in 22 years has led to negative growth in 22 years.

In 23 years, this TTI has accounted for more than 50%, and it is estimated that a demand growth rate of about 10% per year is good, and it will be about 1.5 billion in 23 years.

HOT's orders such as curling irons and hair dryers are expected to have a revenue of 500 million, and HOT's overall revenue is 15 billion, and the company's focus is on the improvement of category and penetration rate, with an annual growth rate of 30-50%.

Shark is a new big customer this year, is the North American personal care brand acquired by Joyoung Group, out of the need to reduce costs, by Johnson OEM this year's explosive products, it is estimated that this year can contribute 3-400 million orders, next year 50-80% of the orders can be expected.

Overall, the small household appliance OEM contribution of 40% of the performance growth rate this year, next year is estimated to be 25-30% of the greater opportunity.

In addition, according to the public capacity utilization rate and output, the company has been in full production in 20 years, and with the early investment and fund-raising transformation projects to reach production, the company's vacuum cleaner + nursing appliances have a production capacity of at least 15 million units this year, supporting the company's small household appliances OEM This 2.5-3 billion foundation has.

2) The EPS motor and brake motor business of the company's automotive electronics business

The company began to develop and lay out the automotive electronic motor business from 16 years, mainly EPS motors and brake motors, contributing more than 3 million revenue in 21 years, more than 80 million revenue in 22 years, and an estimated revenue contribution of 200 million this year, I have sorted out the orders for EPS motors and brake motors according to public information, and the revenue of EPS motors and brake motors of 3-350 million in 24 years can be expected, and the growth rate is at least 100% growth compared with this year.

2. The company's main projects under construction

The company's projects under construction are mainly three production and construction projects raised by the listed company, and the progress of the three projects is described as follows:

1) 7.34 million small household appliances construction project: At present, the main project of the new factory has been completed and has entered the acceptance stage. The annual new sales revenue of the project is 1075000000 yuan (excluding tax), the total annual profit is 1473731000 yuan, and the financial internal rate of return of the project investment is 22.55% (after income tax)

2) Johnson Electric Vietnam plant with an annual output of 3.8 million vacuum cleaner product construction project: At present, the production capacity of 3.8 million units has been completed and is gradually climbing. After the project reaches production, the annual new sales revenue is 646.000 million yuan (excluding tax), the total annual profit is 78.3964 million yuan, and the financial internal rate of return of the project investment is 29.37% (after income tax)

3) Johnson Electric's annual output of 3 million EPS automotive motor production project is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 24, and 4-6 production lines have been completed and put into operation, with an available production capacity of 1 million. The annual new sales revenue of the project is 66,000.00 yuan (excluding tax), the total annual profit is 139,258,500 yuan, and the financial internal rate of return of the project investment is 25.15%

To sum up, the automotive electronics and motors are expected to have a revenue of 200 million in 23 years, and a revenue probability of doubling 400 million in 24 years, according to the current order of 3.6 billion in hand, according to the existing production capacity, 25-26 years is the peak of revenue contribution, and it is expected to be 6-700 million, and there is a high probability that the company will make further expansion plans according to orders in 24 years.

3. The progress and opportunity prospects of the company's robot-related products

Of course, the focus and analysis of Johnson is because the company and UBTECH, Zhaowei Electromechanical and other 6 companies established the Guangdong Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, focusing on motor research and development (mainly frameless torque motors), accounting for 7.69% of the shares, I am personally more optimistic about Johnson's layout of robot frameless torque motors The reasons can be classified as follows:

1) The business migration ability of automotive EPS and brake motors, EPS itself is considered to be high technical content in the motor of the automobile because of the safety involved, the company can be recognized by the head several EPS system manufacturers and the fixed point of such orders, the company's technical capabilities, especially the consistency of rapid mass production and supply capacity is quite good;

2) Mass production cost control and quality assurance ability: The company has considerable advantages in terms of motors for small household appliances and quality control for the head small household appliance giants in North America, as well as the ability to reduce costs with rapid response.

3) The technical difficulty of frameless torque motor is not as good as that of EPS motor, and the humanoid robot innovation center established in Guangdong Province will have the guidance of some motor experts in the industry and the verification support of customer scenarios, so the probability of success is higher.

In short, the company's frameless torque motor R&D and mass market progress should be less than the 2-year R&D cycle of EPS motors, and there is a high probability that it will begin to contribute to performance in 25 years.

On the whole, the revenue in 23 years can achieve a growth rate of more than 2.6 billion yuan by 40%, a revenue growth rate of 3.5 billion yuan in 24 years with a growth rate of 35%, and a growth rate of 25-30% in 25 years It is likely that it can be seen that 24 years and 25 years correspond to the existing dynamic PE 20 times, and PEG is also less than 1.

Special statement: The content only represents personal views and does not constitute any investment guidance, according to which you buy and sell, profit and loss at your own risk, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious!