More than ten years ago, Uncle Benshan and his apprentices performed a skit on the stage of the Spring Festival Gala called "Donation".
A simple farmer uncle met a single mother whose children couldn't afford to go to school, and originally only wanted to donate 3,000, but with a trembling hand, he pressed more zero, and 30,000 in the card were donated.
However, after all, it is "a land contract, two partnerships, except for the wife, regardless of you and me"-
There is still 15,000 saved by the in-laws in the card, but the single-bare in-laws are waiting for the money tomorrow...
The question is: how can I get the money back when I donate?
Facing the scene, Uncle Benshan issued a soul torture question: Want money and face?
The single's in-laws said bluntly: I want a wife!
Time has passed, I never expected that such a thing as "asking for the money given out" could come out in a realistic version, and it was also on the hot search.
The difference is that the protagonist has changed from a simple peasant uncle to a bank that is not bad for money.
It's a bit unbelievable...
On the evening of December 28, China Merchants Bank issued an announcement on the resolution of the board of supervisors, deliberating and passing the "Proposal on the Recourse and Clawback of Performance Remuneration of China Merchants Bank in 2022".
Don't look at the words in the announcement to stab the thief high-end, to put it simply, the bank wants to defend the rights of its employees and ask for salaries!
This time, a total of 2,876 employees were reclaimed and deducted by the implementation of performance pay, accounting for 2.55% of the total number of employees;
A total of 58.24 million yuan was recovered from performance compensation, and about 20,300 yuan was recovered per person.
As soon as the news came out, half of the financial circle and real estate circle exploded directly!
We can see a lot of employees asking for wages from employers, but this time the employer asks for wages from employees in reverse?
It's definitely a knife to the butt - it's an eye-opener!
Moreover, more than 58 million is really not a small amount of money, enough to tear onions and throw coins more than 700 times in the live broadcast room;
Even if the 20,000 yuan spread to everyone's head is not old or young, how many people don't have a year-end bonus of 20,000, please raise your hand in the comment area...
Sure enough, as soon as China Merchants Bank "reversely asked for salary" from employees, the painting style in the comment area instantly changed as follows-
That's it, don't be afraid that China Merchants Bank is doing this "dead friends don't die poor", which is clearly stated in the announcement:
In order to alleviate various operational and management risks, according to regulatory requirements and operational management needs, a relevant mechanism for deferred payment of remuneration and recourse and clawback of performance-based remuneration has been established.
To be honest, the reality is simply too cruel for the bank, so I'd better get back a wave of blood from my own people first!
Love to complain, love to leave and leave, anyway, in front of the situation, you are gone, and some people are willing to drum up in the bank.
Besides, for the bank, the matter of reverse salary negotiation is not the first time that a new daughter-in-law has entered the cave room.
This year, Bohai Bank reclaimed 17.6 million yuan in the performance salary of 370 people in 2022, and 47,600 yuan per capita was recovered, the total number was not as high as that of China Merchants Bank, but it was more painful per capita than that of China Merchants Bank;
The total amount of performance recourse clawback of Jiujiang Bank in 2022 is 1.63 million yuan, although the total number is not much, but the specific number of people involved is not disclosed, which is not easy to evaluate;
During the merger and reorganization of five city commercial banks in Shanxi, 61 senior executives and key positions were reclaimed and deducted 33.59 million yuan in performance compensation, which was more than 550,000 yuan per capita.
Although the matter of "the bank asking for the employee's salary back" is a bit counterintuitive, the reverse salary negotiation of the bank is definitely in accordance with the law and regulations:
As early as 2010, the former China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) issued the Guidelines for the Supervision of Sound Remuneration for Commercial Banks, which clarified that commercial banks should formulate provisions on deferred recourse and clawback of performance-based remuneration;
In February 2021, the General Office of the former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued the Guiding Opinions on Establishing and Improving the Recourse Clawback Mechanism for Performance-based Remuneration of Banking and Insurance Institutions.
The "Guiding Opinions" specify that under eight circumstances, the performance-based remuneration and other incentive remuneration of senior managers and key positions of banking and insurance institutions shall be recovered.
For example, the occurrence of financial statement restatement, the falsification of performance appraisal results, the serious failure to meet the standards of important regulatory indicators, the occurrence of major risk events, etc. are all listed here.
As of late March 2023, more than 95% of institutions have developed and implemented performance-based pay deferred payment and recourse clawback systems.
The bricks of the bank workers are moved: honest and fearful, trembling...
Seeing that the landlord's family has no surplus food, the only thought of the bank now is that everyone can happily pay back the extra salary.
Eighty percent of the bank employees who are asked for wages don't think so: I'm still happy... I promise not to cry, okay?
So, what kind of moth is the bank making of "reverse salary" from its own employees?
On the surface, it is the banking industry that is facing pressure and challenges in its own operating efficiency.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the total domestic and foreign currency assets of mainland banking financial institutions totaled 409.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%;
The balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.4 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter, and the non-performing loan ratio was 1.61%.
During the same period, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 1.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%;
In the first three quarters of last year, the net interest margin and net interest margin of the mainland banking industry were 2.07% and 2.19%, down 23 basis points and 22 basis points respectively year-on-year.
The higher the data of the above two indicators, the better the profitability of the banking industry.
In November, new loans were 1.09 trillion yuan, a seasonal increase of 351.6 billion yuan month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan;
The growth rate of loan balance at the end of the month decreased by 0.1 percentage points from the end of the previous month to 10.8%, which was lower than market expectations.
As of early January 2024, we have recorded the lowest interest rates and spreads since the founding of the country.
What will happen to the overall profitability of the banking sector in the short to medium term?
Judging from the situation of China Merchants Bank, it is indeed not optimistic-
On the one hand, the balance of credit card non-performing loans of China Merchants Bank has reached 15.65 billion by the end of 2022:
An increase of 1.904 billion year-on-year, with a defective rate of 1.77%, which is at a historical high.
On the other hand, the capital market in 2023 will also not give China Merchants Bank face-
On the last trading day of last year, the share price of China Merchants Bank fell by 48% at its peak, properly halved;
So far, the total market value of China Merchants Bank is 701.6 billion, and it has already fallen out of the "trillion club".
There may be Lao Tie who wants to ask: Even if the salary is recovered, it is only more than 50 million, and the trading scale of China Merchants stocks is as much as 1.8 billion in one day, isn't it a drop in the bucket?
The account really can't be counted like this-
Salary recovery is based on the performance indicators of the bankers, especially the bad debts.
Legally and in accordance with the rules and regulations to recover the corresponding salary, not only can the bank losses be recovered as much as possible;
It can also enable bank employees to be more cautious and meticulous in approving loans in the future, and further restrain the growth of non-performing loans.
At a deeper level, the contraction of credit based on the real estate sector is likely to be the real problem.
Judging from the financing situation of 80 typical real estate companies——
In 2021, the total amount of financing will be 1,260.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, which is the first negative growth in this value;
In 2022, the total financing will be 826.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, and the annual value will only be 2/3 of that in 2021;
By 2023, the total amount of financing will be 569.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28%, and the decline has slowed down, but the overall situation is still uncertain.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.19 trillion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year;
Its growth rate decreased by 1.7 percentage points from the end of the previous year, which was lower than the average growth rate of various loans by 11.1 percentage points.
During the same period, the balance of personal housing loans was 38.42 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year.
To put it bluntly: loan projects involving the real estate industry have become a drag on the profitability of the entire bank.
In terms of the proportion of credit, credit financing involving real estate seems to account for only 20-35% of the overall financing scale of the banking industry, which does not seem to be as high as imagined.
But, but, but-
Only 70% of mainland residents' wealth is concentrated in real estate, and about 1/4 of employment is related to it;
In addition, it has also indirectly driven the financing scale and consumption scale of hundreds of core industries.
In this cycle, it is only a matter of time before the chain of credit contraction is transmitted to other areas.
This can only be avoided if the property market is re-established.
Because real estate is a pillar industry stamped by the government, the credit scale and transmission effect based on the real estate industry are irreplaceable.
So, will the real estate industry continue to be a drag in 2024?
To tell the truth, it is indeed difficult to fully restore to the level before the mask, but it will definitely improve significantly compared with the past two years -
The decline in new home sales will narrow in 2024, and demand will be restored to a certain extent.
The vast majority of the country's major first- and second-tier cities are in a net inflow of population, which is determined by employment fundamentals;
Therefore, it can be regarded as a constant amount of real estate prices in the corresponding city.
In the current situation, the improvement demand will still show resilience, and the rigid demand will be steadily restored over time.
This means that credit based on the upstream and downstream of the real estate industry will also be repatriated accordingly.
Of course, some of this is affected by the low base effect in 2023.
Overall, however, a better situation than in the past two years is likely to be a high probability event for two reasons:
First of all, from January to November 2023, the total amount of land acquired by real estate enterprises nationwide will be 1,085.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%.
This means that the operating rate and supply scale in 2024 will also be correspondingly narrower.
The contraction of the supply side, coupled with the two-year bottoming period, will objectively help the new housing market and the second-hand housing market to accelerate the decentralization.
In addition, many first- and second-tier core cities have opened "double limits", and the ceiling of housing prices and land prices is no longer restricted.
This means that the secondary and tertiary markets are likely to accelerate the formation of an interactive effect, which will enhance the confidence of the market side.
In this way, it undoubtedly provides a material basis for the narrowing of the bad debt ratio and the expansion of net profit in the banking industry.
In addition, as early as late July 2023, the high-level review and adoption of the "Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Super Mega Cities".
By 2024, the corresponding shed improvement process will also enter a critical period -
More funding is on the horizon and more demand will be released.
In the context of the narrowing of new inventories, the demand side and the supply side are likely to usher in resonance.
This is an important basis for the bottoming out and accelerated recovery of the property market in 2024.
According to agency estimates, this round of urban village transformation may drive 0.7-1.5 trillion yuan of fixed asset investment per year, and the average annual increase will boost real estate investment by about 5-6 percentage points.
Overall, the real estate industry is likely to accelerate marginal improvement in 2024, and the actual perception of the real estate industry is likely to be better than in the past two years.
In addition, the current loan interest rate has fallen to a historical low, and the threshold for home ownership in major core cities has been lowered lower than in 2015 and 2016.
It is absolutely unprecedentedly friendly for real rigid needs and improvement needs.
In this case, once both the market bottom and the sentiment bottom come, the real estate market will be just around the corner.
A steady rise in asset prices is the most reliable and long-term way to dilute debt stress and bad debt pressure.