In 2023, amazing coincidences!

Every New Year's Day, Brother Yi writes a forecast and outlook for the New Year.

In fact, it is very difficult to analyze and forecast, especially short-term forecasts.

For example, we all know that the famous CICC makes all the wrong forecasts every year, but this is also very difficult, and from this point of view, the level of CICC is still okay.

So now let's review, is Brother Yi's prediction right or wrong in 2023?

1. Civil aviation will grow significantly in 2023

Compared with 2022, China's civil aviation industry in 2023 will definitely achieve significant growth.

However, it is difficult to fully return to 2019 levels.

Result: 100% correct.

In 2023, the passenger volume of national aviation will exceed 600 million, and it is expected to be 620 million, recovering to 95% of 2019 levels.

2. The industry will break even

In 2023, the civil aviation industry will definitely reduce losses significantly, or will achieve breakeven.

But as some securities analysts have said, the likelihood of a supercycle coming is very low.

That said, it's hard to win big.

However, Brother Yi believes:

Industry fragmentation will be further intensified.

Excellent airlines such as Spring Airlines and Xiamen Airlines will be the first to achieve profitability.

Inferior airlines will continue to lose money.

Similarly, the differentiation between off-peak and off-peak seasons is also more serious.

The profitability in the peak season is good, but the losses in the off-season are also very large.

Result: 80% correct

Because National Airlines is still losing money, but it has been greatly reduced.

The phenomenon of industry fragmentation will be further exacerbated, and this analysis is undoubtedly correct.

3. Large airports are the first to make a profit

Large airports are expected to be the first to become profitable before airlines.

And the profitability is much better than that of airlines.

The most profitable ones are:

Shanghai Airport.

However, Meilan Airport can be concerned, and there is a possibility of an outbreak in performance.

Result: 50% correct.

In the first three quarters, Shanghai Airport's net profit was 490 million yuan.

The performance of Meilan Airport did not break out, but lost money.

Capital Airport is also losing money

Other large airports are basically profitable

4. Air China is no longer the king of losses

In 2020, due to the large amount of impairment provisions made by Hainan Airlines, Air China's loss amount ranked first among the three major airlines, less than that of Hainan Airlines.

In 2021 and 2022, Air China's loss ranked first in the industry for two consecutive years.

In 2023, Air China is expected to shake off the hat of the king of losses.

Result: 100% correct

Air China is no longer the most loss-losing airline

5. Shanghai staged the return of the king!

In the past three years, under the impact of the epidemic, the international passenger traffic of Shanghai Pudong Airport has dropped significantly.

In 2022, under the impact of the epidemic, the passenger throughput of Shanghai's two major airports has plummeted.

In 2023, Shanghai will inevitably stage the return of the king and regain the throne of the first city of domestic aviation.

Result: 100% correct

It is estimated that the passenger throughput of the two events in Shanghai will exceed 95 million, ranking first in China

6. Baiyun Airport once again won the first place in domestic airports

In 2023, Baiyun Airport is expected to continue to maintain its position as the busiest airport in China.

Result: 100% correct

It is estimated that the passenger throughput of Baiyun Airport will be about 63 million person-times throughout the year, continuing to rank first.

7. Cargo airlines are more competitive

As the international economic situation becomes more and more severe, the mainland's export trade has declined sharply, and the volume and price of international air cargo have fallen together.

In 2023, international cargo airlines may still be profitable, but they certainly won't make a lot of money.

Some small cargo carriers have certainly increased their losses.

In the future, the air cargo business is not fun.

Result: 90% correct

This year's air cargo business profit declined, but air cargo at the end of the year showed signs of stabilizing and rebounding.

8. C919 to achieve commercial flight

The C919 could be commercially ready for passenger flights in the first quarter.

The significance of this incident for China's civil aviation lies more in the future, and perhaps its role will be truly shown in 10 or 20 years.

Result: 50% correct

The C919 made its commercial maiden flight on May 28.

9. Boeing 737 MAX go-around

It is expected that in 2023, B737MAX is expected to fly again into China's blue sky.

In the future, we are expected to see the phenomenon of A320, B737, and C919 competing in the same field.

Result: 100% correct

10. The renminbi fluctuates in both directions

In 2023, the RMB is expected to show a two-way shock.

For the whole year, the likelihood of RMB appreciation is greater than the likelihood of depreciation.

Results: 50%

This year, there was a clear two-way shock, but in the end there was a slight depreciation.

It can only be said that most of Brother Yi's predictions happened to be right, of course, this is just a coincidence.

So what does 2024 hold?

Look forward to tomorrow's 2024 outlook.

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