2023 will continue to be a turbulent year. The reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the continuation of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the discharge of Japan's nuclear sewage into the sea have touched people's hearts. In addition, the "hottest year in history" sounded the alarm bell of the climate crisis, the refugee crisis hit Europe with huge financial pressures, and the rise of far-right parties in power led to high xenophobia in various countries......
Entering 2024, the world is facing many challenges and new opportunities: Saudi Arabia and Iran have released their old suspicions to promote the wave of reconciliation in the Middle East, the expansion of the BRICS group has brought opportunities for a multipolar world, and COP28 has written the gradual transition away from fossil fuels into the resolution for the first time......
At the end of the year, Jiemian News World Channel will take you to review 2023 when reconciliation and conflict coexist.
1. Saudi Arabia and Iran shake hands
On March 10, China, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached the Beijing Agreement and issued a joint statement announcing the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two most influential countries in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have been at odds for a long time, and the two countries have successfully shaken hands and made peace under the mediation of China, which has undoubtedly made important contributions to world peace. In April, Saudi Arabia's and Iranian counterparts met for the first time in seven years to discuss details of cooperation between the two countries to resume diplomacy. The Iranian president also visited Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, in November to attend a joint extraordinary summit of Arab-Islamic leaders.
In addition, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the resumption of agreements signed between the two countries in 2001 and 1998 on security cooperation, economic and trade cooperation, and expanded military cooperation between the two countries.
The situation in the Middle East is complex, and the interests of major powers are intertwined. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the end of the year added uncertainty to the already emerging tide of reconciliation in the region.
2. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has escalated
On 7 October, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) attacked Israel, prompting a frenzied retaliation. Israel continues to launch all-round attacks on the Gaza Strip. In late November, Hamas and Israel briefly suspended fire for seven days over a hostage exchange.
Compared with Hamas, Israel's sanctions on water and electricity cuts, land, and air attacks in the Gaza Strip have brought about a more serious humanitarian crisis and caused protests around the world. As the conflict continues to escalate, Allah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have taken steps to support Hamas. A number of international merchant ships were attacked by the Houthis while sailing in the Red Sea, causing several shipping companies to suspend Red Sea routes, affecting international supply chains.
The United Nations and other international forces have repeatedly called for a ceasefire, but both sides have no intention of ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set himself three goals: to eliminate Hamas, to urge Hamas to return all hostages to Israel, and to ensure that the Gaza Strip does not pose a threat to Israel again.
The escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has brought more uncertainty to the already uneven Middle East. In the future, the question of ownership and governance of the Gaza Strip will also be difficult.
3. Japan's nuclear sewage is discharged into the sea
On August 24 and October 5, Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant carried out two rounds of discharge of nuclear-contaminated water. Despite the strong opposition of neighboring countries, the Japanese government has launched a plan to discharge nuclear sewage into the sea, and is expected to discharge all the nuclear sewage from the Fukushima nuclear power plant within 30 years.
The Japanese government insists that the discharged nuclear wastewater has been treated and that only one radioactive element, tritium, has not fallen below international standards, and that this element is diluted and does not pose a threat to the environment.
In fact, the NGO Greenpeace has found that tritium accumulates in phytoplankton on the seafloor, but further assessment is needed on whether tritium poses a health hazard through the food chain. However, it was this uncertainty that caused massive panic among the population, with protests erupting around the world demanding that the Japanese side stop the sea discharge.
One of the direct victims of the discharge was Japanese fishermen. Although the Japanese government has introduced a subsidy policy of 30 billion yen in the hope of the cooperation and understanding of fishermen, the image of Japan's fishing industry has been seriously damaged and the quality of aquatic products has continued to decline, and fishermen's concerns about the future development of related industries have been further intensified.
4. Wagner Group executives died in a plane crash
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began in February 2022, has been going on for almost two years.
On August 23, almost all the top leaders of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary group, were killed in a plane crash. The group has served for the Russian Defense Forces, played an important role on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and even helped Russia maintain its influence in places like resource-rich Africa.
Two months before the crash, the Wagner Group launched a rebellion because of its disagreement with the Russian Defense Forces on military strategy, scaring the top of the government into a cold sweat. The insurgency exposed the Russian government's over-reliance on private military forces, leading to theories that the Russian top brass orchestrated the accident in order to better control the Wagner Group. In any case, the crash actually caused a heavy blow to the Wagner Group, but it had little impact on Russia's military operations.
Over the past year, Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in fierce competition over strategic locations, and the two sides have continued to exchange fire and not back down from each other. The situation on the front line is grim, with about 180,000 to 240,000 casualties in the Russian army and about 380,000 casualties in the Ukrainian army.
But the protracted conflict has also left both Russia and Ukraine facing ammunition shortages, and Ukraine has had to shrink its front and withdraw from Maryinka, a strategic location in the Donetsk region, in the absence of U.S. military assistance, and has now shifted to a defensive posture. The continued Russian offensive also failed to make significant progress, and the two sides reached a stalemate on the front line.
5. BRICS expansion
On August 24, the leaders of the BRICS countries announced the expansion of the BRICS group, and Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were invited to join the BRICS mechanism.
BRICS countries have many considerations when recruiting new members, and the stability of the domestic political situation and broad market prospects are the most important factors. The new members of this expansion are all newcomers to the region: Saudi Arabia and Iran have achieved the reconciliation of the century and made important contributions to world peace; the United Arab Emirates, as an important oil exporter, has great development potential; Argentina is a vast economy that cannot be ignored in Latin America; and Egypt and Ethiopia are strategically located and will play an indispensable role in economic globalization.
BRICS countries represent the interests of developing countries and are committed to leading South-South cooperation and contributing to the development of a multipolar world. This expansion has once again injected impetus into BRICS economic and trade cooperation and pushed BRICS cooperation to a new level.
Although the newly inaugurated Argentine President Milley has recently decided to refuse to join the BRICS, nearly 20 countries, including Bangladesh, Nigeria and Venezuela, have shown strong interest in joining the BRICS cooperation mechanism.
6. COP28 reached a historic decision
Affected by El Niño and excessive greenhouse gas emissions, 2023 became the hottest year on human history on record.
To combat the effects of climate change, representatives of nearly 200 countries gathered in the UAE from November 30 to December 13 to finally reach a consensus on the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement, and for the first time, "phasing off fossil fuels" was included in the document.
Fossil fuels are the main culprits of global warming, but as a basic energy source, fossil fuels play an important role in human production and life. In the run-up to COP28, there has been a debate over whether the final agreement will use the phrase "fossil fuel phase-down" or "fossil fuel phase-out".
The final agreement's reference to phasing out fossil fuels came as a surprise to all, and the document was criticized for not mentioning a detailed implementation plan. But there is no doubt that this document is progressive, at least a wake-up call for the world on the use of fossil fuels.
In the future, how to balance energy security and green emission reduction will become a top priority. If we are to move away from fossil fuels, governments and companies will need to work together to increase the adoption of emission reduction technologies and the development of renewable energy.
7. Strikes broke out in Europe and the United States
This year, a wave of large-scale strikes broke out in Europe and the United States, from Hollywood screenwriters in the United States to railway workers in the United Kingdom, including workers in education, healthcare, transportation, manufacturing and other fields.
The demands of workers in various countries are mainly aimed at increasing wages and improving working conditions, and even after multiple rounds of negotiations, it is often difficult to achieve the full demands of workers.
After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Europe and the United States adopted loose monetary policies to boost the economy, but at the same time, inflation was high and purchasing power declined. Workers' wages are unable to cover the growing expenses, food and energy prices are rising, and companies are unwilling to concede profits to increase labor costs, leading to a vicious cycle of further price increases and workers seeking higher wages.
From last year to the first half of this year, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates, which eased inflation to a certain extent, but also brought downward pressure on the economy of the United States and the euro area.
8. The world's major central banks pause interest rate hikes
In the second half of this year, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve announced a pause in interest rate hikes to boost the economy, in line with market expectations.
U.S. inflation in the fourth quarter is still at a high level, but it shows good economic resilience, and the market's risk appetite has risen, which is good for U.S. stocks. In addition, due to the pause in interest rate hikes, investor confidence in some European countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom has increased, and major stock indices have reached record highs this year.
Combined with the impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Red Sea crisis, energy prices and daily necessities prices may show an upward trend in the short term, putting pressure on consumer spending and affecting economic growth.
In the future, the ECB and the Fed may not raise interest rates to ease economic pressures. However, the ECB and Fed are expected to keep interest rates higher for some time to reach their medium-term inflation target of 2%.
9. The refugee crisis continues to hit Europe
Against the backdrop of war, the continued influx of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa this year has overwhelmed European countries.
According to the EU's response in 2015, these refugees will be allocated to countries in the form of "quota resettlement" after entering Europe.
However, there are serious divisions within the EU about the implementation of this policy. Countries close to the Middle East and North Africa, such as Italy and Greece, hope that other European countries can jointly provide asylum for refugees, but Central and Eastern European countries such as Poland and Hungary are reluctant to accept too many refugees.
As public resources such as education, medical care, housing, and transportation in European countries are severely squeezed, Germany and Italy have tightened their border policies. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak even wanted to send refugees to Rwanda, and although the plan was ruled illegal by the British Supreme Court, Sunak's government has been persistent in signing other agreements with Rwanda to speed up the resettlement process.
Europe's inability to respond to the refugee crisis and the support of far-right parties in various countries with tough immigration policies have led to a "rightward turn" in European politics.
10. Is world politics turning to the right?
This year, far-right nationalist parties have become popular in various countries, with "Trump in Argentina" and "Trump in the Netherlands" successfully winning the majority of votes, and Trump himself has also reaped wave after wave of support in the United States.
The reason for this is closely related to the global economic downturn after the new crown epidemic. The economic downturn, the decline in the employment rate, and the rising cost of living have put tremendous pressure on the people's purse. Voters' confidence in the government has declined, and they urgently need to find new support.
The far-right nationalist policies pursued by these "Trumps", such as "give Argentina back to the Argentines" and "Give the Netherlands back to the Dutch", have succeeded in providing an outlet for voters who have nowhere to vent their emotions. And their demands, such as deep tax cuts, cuts in government spending, and tightening immigration policies to put their own nationals first, are playing right on the hearts of voters.
Far-right nationalism offers more of an emotional value, such as the fact that Milley, the "Argentine Trump," claimed to abolish the central bank before his inauguration, but now has not mentioned the abolition of the central bank since taking office and has softened his diplomatic stance.
The rise of far-right nationalism can't help but warn people at least that it's not a good thing for anyone when a world that requires cooperation becomes increasingly closed and extreme.