On December 29, the dark green polling agency "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation" released the latest poll, Lai Xiaopei's support rate was 32.4%, Hou Kangpei's support rate was 28.2%, Ke Yingpei's support rate was 24.6%, and the gap between the three groups of candidates was less than 5%. In this regard, You Yinglong, chairman of the "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation", who once served as the deputy secretary general of the Democratic Progressive Party, said that once the blue and white abandonment of insurance occurs, the situation will be more favorable to Hou Youyi.
In the same poll, the KMT's support for political parties, non-districts, and "regional legislators" all maintained its lead. More importantly, 59.4 percent of respondents said they would like to see a change of political parties, that is, the removal of the DPP. And Hou Youyi's poll lead, blue and white abandonment of insurance has become an inevitable choice, and the proportion of abandoning Ke Baohou will inevitably exceed the proportion of abandoning Hou Baoke. Although You Yinglong did not directly comment on Lai Qingde's election, the meaning is very clear, and the DPP and Lai Qingde's election situation is very critical. This also corresponds, the DPP once again used Mayday to talk about things and played the card of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan".
In addition, Dai Li'an, the executive director of the poll of "Beautiful Island E-News" and a polling expert, explained the recent large fluctuations in the poll. Dai Li'an said that polls and election estimates are two different things, that polls reflect the expression of collective opinions from random samples, and that the sampling process, questionnaire design, and survey methods will cause differences in poll results. According to Dai Li'an's analysis, based on a 70% voter turnout, Lai Qingde's vote rate is about 41%-42%, with 5.64 million to 5.8 million votes, Hou Youyi's vote rate is between 37% and 39%, and the number of votes is between 5.1 million and 5.3 million, and Ke Wenzhe's vote rate is about 20%-21%, with 2.8 million to 2.9 million votes.
In other words, according to Dai Li'an's prediction, Lai Qingde may win Hou Youyi by a maximum of 700,000 votes, Lai Qingde may win Hou Youyi by at least 340,000 votes, and Ke Wenzhe's vote rate will not be less than 20%. Dai Li'an and You Yinglong's predictions actually echo to a certain extent, Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde are indeed less than 5% different, at most 700,000 votes, but with Ke Wenzhe's abandonment effect, they can win. From Ke Wenzhe's point of view, if Lai Qingde comes to power in 2024 and the DPP will be in power for another 4 or even 8 years, will the People's Party have no future at all?
The People First Party (PFP) once grew into the third largest force capable of competing with the blue and green, with 46 seats in the legislature, but the key to this was that the number of "legislators" was reduced from 226 to 113 after the negotiations between the two parties, and the electoral system was changed to a single election and two votes. As a result, except for the blue and green parties, the other parties have no hope of winning the election in the "regional legislature". If Ke Wenzhe chooses to help no one in 2024, the end will be the blue-green collective killing the People's Party. For Ke Wenzhe, the only way to maintain the political energy of the People's Party and himself is to support Hou Youyi's election, and then ensure that the People's Party and the Kuomintang form a joint government.
Welcome to leave a message, do you think Ke Wenzhe will choose to give up the insurance voluntarily in the final stage?