A-shares ended with three consecutive gains, and A-shares will lead the world in 2023, and the A-share will perform next year

Now think about it, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks walked out of the bottoming structure last week, but they were interrupted by last Friday's new online game rules "Opinion Draft", which delayed bottoming for a week.

Looking back on 2023, the market expectations at the beginning of the year were outrageously wrong, and CICC's top ten predictions were beaten. At the end of last year, China relaxed the epidemic control, and the market expected that China's economy would usher in a recovery while Europe and the United States would cause a recession due to interest rate hikes, so most institutions were optimistic about the performance of A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and RMB.

But in fact, China's economic recovery is not as expected, and in the second half of the year, due to the real estate crisis and local debt crisis, the market's expectations for the economy have fallen into unprecedented pessimism. Overseas, the European economy weakened as expected, the U.S. economy remained strong due to fiscal stimulus, and it was not until the fourth quarter that the U.S. economy and job market began to cool down significantly, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike reversed 180 degrees around the National Day, and the U.S. 10 bond yields peaked and fell, from a maximum of 5% to now falling below 3.8%, which also gave birth to a wave of global stock market rebound since November, and the stock markets of Europe, the United States, Japan and India have reached new highs.

Specifically, as of the close of trading on December 29, the Nasdaq index led the world with an increase of more than 44%, the Nikkei 225 and Taiwan weighted rose by more than 20%, and the German DAX, Mumbai Sensex30, and South Korea Composite rose nearly 20%. Only A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fell, the ChiNext index led the decline with a decline of nearly 20%, the Shanghai 50 Index fell for three consecutive years, and Hong Kong stocks fell for four consecutive years, all setting a historical record.

Standing at the current juncture, most institutions in the market still have high expectations for U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, Southeast Asian stocks, etc., but have no confidence in low-level A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Some time ago, overseas ETFs such as Southeast Asia Technology ETF and Nikkei 225 ETF had a high premium, which reflected the disappointment of funds in A-shares, and they would rather chase overseas stock markets at a high premium than stick to low-level A-shares.

"Cheap out of dung, expensive out of pearl", we have been sneering at "A shares, Hong Kong stocks have no value" and other remarks, as long as the price given is lower than the intrinsic value, there is investment value, capital is profit-seeking, as long as there is value, there will be funds to chase, whether it is noble pearl or lowly dung.

From a rational point of view, it is easier to make money by buying at a low level and selling at a high level, but most investors do not have the ability to invest against the trend.

If an investment system becomes the consensus expectation of the market and is interpreted as a "slogan investment", it often means that a reversal is coming. The essence of stock investment is chip trading, if the bears are sold, then what can continue to be bearish to smash the market, when an expectation is completely voted by the market, then the expectation loses its value.

At the beginning of last year, the market's expectations were completely missed, so will it be repeated this year? Today, Li Bei published an article "Short Selling" similar to the point of view we mentioned yesterday: the current positions of private equity, insurance capital, and foreign capital are at a historical low, and the recent buying power of the stock market is mainly the national team, listed companies to increase their holdings, and some left-hand investors.

Looking forward to next year, domestic policies will be more active, overseas markets will usher in interest rate cuts by European and American central banks, and it will be difficult for the market to have a systemic risk of a downward break. On the contrary, the first quarter is often the most active stage of A-shares, and the volatility of the stock market will be amplified, and it may fluctuate upwards if it does not fluctuate downward. Now the institutions with low positions are thinking about waiting for the last fall of A shares, and then picking up chips with blood, but the profit and loss are the same, and they can avoid the fall and miss the rise, and the institutions with low positions are not afraid of falling and are afraid of rising.

Some people here may say that the domestic economy will not be very resilient in the first quarter of next year, and the market's worries about real estate have not been lifted. What we want to say is that the bearish have been fully reflected, does the European recession affect the stock market to new highs?, everyone has all kinds of worries during the bear market, and the mood is not a linear change, from pessimism to optimism may be a thought.

Finally, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.68%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index edged up 0.02%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index edged up 0.01%. The turnover of the two cities shrank to 0.82 trillion yuan, and foreign investors once bought more than 3 billion yuan in early trading, probably because of the holiday effect, and the end of the market turned into an outflow, and a small net sale of 566 million yuan throughout the day.

There were two tailwinds last night:

The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China for the fourth quarter of 2023 was held in Beijing on December 27. The meeting held that it is necessary to intensify the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, promote the recovery of low prices, and keep prices at a reasonable level. Promote the steady decline in the cost of corporate financing and household credit.

On the 28th, Minister of Finance Lan Foan said at the third report meeting of the series of reports on the economic situation of "comprehensively promoting Chinese-style modernization" that next year's active fiscal policy will be moderately strengthened, improve quality and efficiency, and maintain appropriate expenditure intensity.

The central bank emphasized promoting the recovery of low prices, and inflation is expected to bottom out next year, and the offshore RMB exchange rate rose nearly 400 points today, rising above the 7.1 mark.

There was also a miraculous scene at the end of the market, the Industrial Bank bid for the daily limit, and the reporter of the Financial Associated Press consulted the investor hotline of the Industrial Bank, and the relevant people said that there was no information that should be disclosed internally. On the same day, a number of private equity fund managers told the Financial Associated Press that there is no need for rational investors to bid for the price limit at the end of the market, and it cannot be ruled out that it is an oolong index incident.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently