On December 29, the last trading day of 2023, the three major A-share indices rose across the board. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.68% to 2,974.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.89% to 9,524.69 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 1,891.37 points.
In terms of individual stocks, there was a general upward trend, with more than 4,300 stocks rising in the two cities, and 74 stocks rising to the limit, with a total turnover of 822.6 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that on December 29, more than 4,300 A-share stocks rose, on December 28, more than 4,400 stocks rose, and on December 27, more than 3,700 stocks rose. Tongdaxin data shows that this kind of multi-day general rise is the first time this year.
More than 4,300 shares rose, led by the consumer electronics sector
After the opening of the market on December 29, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index began to fluctuate and rise, and a total of 4,321 stocks rose in the two markets as of the close, of which 74 stocks rose by the limit, and the number of stocks that rose by more than 5% reached 299.
Source: Straight Flush
In terms of sectors, consumer electronics broke out, mixed reality led the A-share market, up 5.47%, and all stocks in the sector rose, including Lianjian shares, Yitian shares, Goertek shares, etc.
On the news side, according to IDC data, China's AR market is expected to ship 240,000 units for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 133.9%. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to reach 101.0% in 2024.
According to the CICC research report, it is expected that Apple will launch offline sales of Vision Pro in 1Q24, and it is optimistic that with the help of Vision Pro's mature hardware, user feedback on MR products may exceed market expectations, thereby promoting component innovation such as silicon-based OLED, IPD interpupillary distance adjustment, etc. It is expected that in 2024, major manufacturers such as Meta, Pico and Samsung are expected to release a variety of VR brands to promote VR shipments to return to positive growth. In addition, CICC is optimistic that AR products may become one of the carriers of AI applications, and the volume is expected to accelerate in 2024.
In addition, the media and game sectors rebounded rapidly, and Kaiying Network, Rebate Technology, Fengyuzhu, Shanghai Film, Zhongke Cloud Network, etc. The photovoltaic sector continues to be active, with Qingyuan shares 7 boards, Shangwei shares, Cybrid technology, Jinchen shares, etc.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.7% for the year, with 2,885 stocks rising
December 29 is the last trading day of 2023 for A-shares, and after the close, the annual K-line shapes of the three major stock indexes have been presented.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2974.93 points, and the annual K-line showed a negative line. The decline in 2023 is 3.70%, compared with the decline of 15.13% in 2022, a significant improvement, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9524.69 points, a decline of 13.54%, much larger than the Shanghai Composite Index, but compared with the 25.85% decline in 2022, it has narrowed significantly, and the ChiNext Index closed at 1891.37 points, an annual decline of 19.41%, the largest decline among the three major indexes, but this decline is also better than the 29.37% decline in 2022.
In addition to the three major stock indexes, the STAR 50 Index fell 11.24% for the year, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 11.73% for the year, the CSI 300 Index fell 11.38% for the year, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 6.28% for the year. It is worth mentioning that when the major indices are in a state of varying degrees of decline, the BSE 50 rose strongly by 14.92%.
From the perspective of sectors, A-shares are a big year for "themes" this year. At the beginning of the year, ChatGPT swept in, in the middle of the year, Huawei's industrial chain returned strongly, and at the end of the year, the "Beijing Stock Exchange" frequently led the rise, and a succession of new concepts led the A-shares.
In terms of northbound funds, there was a net buying state throughout the year, with a cumulative net purchase of 43.7 billion, a decrease of 46.3 billion compared with 2022. So far, northbound funds have increased their positions in A-shares for 10 consecutive years.
Excluding new listings in 2023, a total of 2,885 A-share stocks rose. Among them, there are 1,071 stocks with an increase of more than 30%, 582 stocks with an increase of more than 50%, and 180 stocks with an increase of more than 100%. The biggest increase was Kaihua Materials, which rose 572.97% for the year.
The number of stocks that fell for the year was 2,430, of which 517 fell by more than 30% and 82 fell by more than 50%. The biggest decline was *ST Zuojiang, which fell 77.91% for the year.
The institutional sentiment for 2024 is positive
2024 is coming, how do institutional investors view the A-share market in the coming year?
CITIC Securities: The A-share market, confidence is reunited
In 2023, the recovery of market confidence will lag behind the policy and economic cycle that has taken a turn, and in 2024, market confidence will reunite, and the change in investor behavior will drive the repair of valuation is the main theme of the A-share market.
CICC: The A-share market is coming
Since the beginning of 2023, the A-share market has risen and then fallen, and the overall performance has been slightly flat, and the adjusted market valuation is gradually approaching the historical extreme level, and the current asset prices may have implied overly pessimistic expectations. Looking forward to 2024, although it is necessary to deal with the manifestation of some medium- and long-term internal and external issues, considering that the mainland has a large policy space, a solid foundation, sufficient development potential, and a competitive advantage in many areas in the world, we believe that there is no need to be pessimistic about the performance of the market outlook under the baseline scenario, market opportunities outweigh risks, and attach importance to phased and structural allocation.
Guotai Junan: Sideways shocks are waiting for the day
The economy is generally recovering steadily, infrastructure projects and urban village transformation are expected to promote the improvement of investment, manufacturing going overseas has become a new bright spot, and the slow recovery of consumption still needs support. Macro policy is proactive, monetary policy remains loose, fiscal policy is expected to stabilize growth, industrial policy focuses on transformation and upgrading, and policy combination and coordination are expected to rise. Driven by economic recovery and active policies, China's stock market remained generally stable, with risk-free rates and risk premiums remaining stable.
Shen Wan Hongyuan: When the spring is pressed to the extreme, it will rebound
The market rebound shows that the short-term and medium- and long-term pessimistic expectations have been fully reflected in the short-term market, and the cost-effective area is confirmed. Investors' expectations show that the overall stability of the market depends on the refinement of domestic policies + the verification of economic stabilization and rebound, while structurally, the market is more optimistic about the growth direction of TMT and pharmaceutical biology.
The structure of the spring market is likely to be "cyclical stage, growth singing", cycle stage, more optimistic about cyclical products (coal, copper) with strong supply-side contraction logic. In addition, the pro-cyclical nature of core assets is becoming stronger. Transactions have grown steadily, and core consumption (innovative drugs) and advanced manufacturing (optimistic about new energy vehicles from the perspective of improving the long-term supply and demand pattern) are also starting points. Growth singing, focusing on the direction of event catalysis, AIPC, MR, and Huawei Chain.
China Merchants Securities: The CSI 300 is ushering in the glimmer of the dawn of bottoming
Recently, many physical economic indicators have turned positive, indicating that the economy is improving. From a rational and medium- to long-term perspective, the CSI 300 is ushering in the glimmer of the dawn of the bottom. Scientific and technological innovation has now become the most important direction of policy support, and the opportunities brought by more powerful government spending are also worth paying attention to. Judging from the recent macro changes, the Federal Reserve will be easing next year, and the marginal improvement of external demand is a high probability event; therefore, "scientific and technological innovation + exports" and "scientific and technological innovation + To G" are expected to become important clues for the industry layout next year. At the industry level, we will focus on electronics, automobiles and parts due to the superposition of AI technology innovation and export improvement, as well as investment opportunities in the fields of computers, industrial metals, building materials, and home appliances brought about by the increase in government spending and the launch of the three major projects.
Written by: Wu Hongsen, Xi reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society