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Excellent industry growth and good company fundamentals are the key to selecting a high-quality investment target. In 2024, which A-share companies have new value opportunities? The National Business Daily "2024 Investment Special Issue" will visit 10 new value companies for you, bringing you first-hand company information and trends.
Recently, Yili shares (SH600887, share price of 26.85 yuan, market value of 170.9 billion yuan) said: "In the past three years, the company's dividend rate has reached more than 70%. The company has always attached great importance to the interests of shareholders and hopes to continue to maintain a good level of dividends. ”
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Industry analysts told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that 2023 is an important watershed in China's dairy market, and the next growth point is expected to be professional nutrition. According to the analysis of the brokerage research report, in the first half of 2024, dairy products are expected to usher in the situation of improving the income side and still existing the dividend on the cost side, and the effect of the Spring Festival peak season is expected to promote the valuation repair of the sector.
Growth was driven by increased demand for liquid milk
According to Yili's report for the third quarter of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 97.091 billion yuan from the beginning of the year to the end of the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of 3.84%, a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 9.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.36%, and basic earnings per share of 1.47 yuan/share, a year-on-year increase of 16.67%.
In the summary of investor Q&A announced by Yili on November 2, the company said that in the first three quarters of 2023, the liquid milk business increased by 2.1% year-on-year, accounting for 68% of the total revenue, the milk powder and dairy products business increased by 6.4% year-on-year, accounting for 20.7% of the total revenue, and the cold drink business increased by 12.9% year-on-year, accounting for 10.8% of the total revenue.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the gross profit margin of Yili's main business also increased, reaching 33.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.
Yili also said: "In the past three years, the company's dividend rate has reached more than 70%. The company has always attached great importance to the interests of shareholders and hopes to continue to maintain a good level of dividends. ”
At the third quarter of 2023 performance briefing of Yili shares on October 31, the relevant person in charge of Yili shares said that in terms of business, the recovery of holiday gift scenes has driven the overall demand for liquid milk to increase, and the normal temperature liquid milk has a double-digit year-on-year growth in the third quarter, and the low-temperature liquid milk continues to maintain a growth trend.
In terms of cold drinks, Yili shares have ensured better shipments in the peak season. In the third quarter, the company's cold drink business revenue declined year-on-year, but in the first three quarters, the company's cold drink business revenue increased by 12.9% year-on-year.
The relevant person in charge said that the industry declined significantly in the first three quarters of infant milk powder. Since the third quarter, with the successive clearance of small brand formulas that have not passed the registration system, and at the same time, Yili shares have successively launched new formula products at the end of August, which has driven the company's infant milk powder business in the third quarter to improve month-on-month. In addition, the company's adult milk powder has maintained a good growth momentum and continues to lead the industry.
"In October, the development trend of various businesses is still good. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of this year, the company's overall revenue will still maintain an upward recovery trend. The relevant person in charge of Yili shares said.
According to the relevant report of China Galaxy Securities Research Institute, from a fundamental point of view, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of the dairy sector in the first quarter of 2023 increased by 5.7% and 2.3% year-on-year respectively, 1.8% and 22.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, and 0.8% and 52.5% year-on-year respectively in the third quarter of 2023.
Song Liang, a senior dairy analyst, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter through WeChat on December 22 that 2023 is an important watershed in China's dairy market. After more than 30 years of development, China's dairy industry has made great achievements, established a perfect supply chain and technical standard system, and greatly enriched its products to meet the quality needs of consumers. The dairy market is moving towards health from scratch, from safety to safety, from safety to quality improvement.
The Southeast Asian market has growth potential
Song Liang also said that in 2023, the consumption of dairy products will show a phased surplus. The report of China Galaxy Securities Research Institute also shows that as of November 2023, domestic fresh milk prices have decreased by 10% year-on-year, and there is a partial surplus on the upstream supply side.
Internationalization is of great importance in order to solve the problem of structural needs. The relevant person in charge of Yili said: "The Southeast Asian market laid out by the company has a large population base and a large growth potential in per capita income. In the past few years, the company began to lay out the Southeast Asian market, entering through acquisitions, investment, trade and other means. At present, both Thailand and Indonesia have entered the fast lane of development, and the profit model is gradually maturing. Thailand's business has expanded to the southeast peninsula and has successfully explored the profit model of M&A and local operation, while Indonesia has explored the profit model of self-built development. ”
For the next growth point of China's dairy industry, Song Liang said that it should be a professional nutrition category. He said that whether it is white milk, yogurt, cheese, milk powder and other products, it has been greatly enriched. However, from a structural point of view, the current professional nutrition products are not enough to meet the needs of the elderly and special-purpose adults, and it is necessary to further develop precise and refined nutrition products for the whole family. Song Liang said: "We need to speed up basic research, especially research on basic nutrition. ”
According to public information, in terms of research and development, Yili Group has built a total of 15 innovation centers around the world, and has completed a number of research projects with institutions in New Zealand, the United States and other countries, including "AI + formula development" and "low-carbon dairy farming" technology. In 2023, Yili Co., Ltd. released Yili Jindian lactoferrin products and related scientific research results at the "Asian Organic Conference". In addition, as the leading unit, the company has jointly built the National Dairy Technology Innovation Center with well-known scientific research institutions and well-known enterprises at home and abroad.
According to a relevant report by China Galaxy Securities Research Institute, "looking forward to 2024, we believe that the demand side is expected to take the lead in further recovery in the first half of the year, and the price of raw milk needs to rise in mid-2024 even under optimistic conditions. ”
National Business Daily