Is the population issue important? It is very important! It has a bearing on a country's economic and social stability.
Although the study does not include new technologies such as AI that could dramatically increase social productivity, the decline in the number of new births is certainly not a cause for good news, according to research that shows that the total fertility rate will continue to fall below the warning line. Not to mention anything else, pension is a very real problem.
The mainland's pension insurance is a pay-as-you-go system, and those who are working pay as pensions for retirees, and the decrease in the number of new people and China's deep aging means that fewer and fewer people are paying and more and more people receiving money. There are only two possibilities for the future, either pension funds will dry up or retirement will be delayed.
China's concept of fertility is relatively conservative, the vast majority of people cannot accept unmarried childbearing, marriage is the premise of having children, so the marriage rate determines the fertility rate to a certain extent. Of course, there are many Dink families who do not have children even if they get married, but this does not affect the conclusion that there is a positive correlation between marriage rate and fertility rate.
Observing the data on the marriage rate and the unmarried rate can roughly determine the trend of the number of new births in the future.
The Chinese Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2023 conducted a sample survey on the marital status of the population aged 15 and over in 2022, and the data is not ideal.
The unmarried rate among 25- to 29-year-olds is 51.3 per cent, with 34 per cent of 29-year-olds unmarried, i.e. almost one in three 29-year-olds is unmarried. The age of 30 is known as the year of establishment, which has a special symbolic meaning in the mainland, the unmarried rate of this age group is 27.7%, and more than a quarter of 30-year-old Chinese people are unmarried.
In addition, the rate of unmarried is below 10% at the age of 36 and does not fall below 5% until the age of 39.
Another statistic confirms the fact that China currently has a high rate of unmarried among all age groups.
The data in the "Family Marriage Report 2023 Edition" shows that the number of registered marriages in the mainland in 2022 is 6.83 million couples, considering the impact of local epidemic prevention policies on marriage last year, the number of marriage pairs in 2023 should increase, but the gap is still obvious compared with ten years ago. In 2013, there were 13.47 million marriage registrations in China.
Why young people are reluctant to get married? It may have something to do with economic and ideological factors.
In terms of economy, another important function of marriage in addition to feelings is security, behind the young couple there are both original families, marriage is equivalent to three families forming an alliance, and they can rely on each other financially.
With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous increase of individual income, it is possible to live well alone, especially in recent years, the status of women in the workplace has been strengthened, and the growth of wage income has made them no longer dependent on men, and the role of marriage in improving the economic situation of one party has gradually decreased.
Why are you in a hurry to get married when you don't need to be raised?
In terms of concept, if you don't get married at a certain age in the past, you will not only become an "alien", but you will also feel uncomfortable when you are pointed at by others, and the invisible pressure will lead to the marriage even if you have made do.
The current situation is very different, there are many people who do not get married in first- and second-tier cities, and people no longer think that being unmarried at an older age is a personal problem, after all, there are similar situations around, and there is no pressure from the outside world to naturally get married. In addition, parents are now more open-minded, forcing their children to marry less and less, as long as the children are happy.
From the perspective of freedom of choice, the decline in the marriage rate is not a bad thing, everyone has the right to choose their lifestyle, and having the confidence to be single reflects the economic development and social progress. However, as mentioned earlier, the decline in fertility due to the low marriage rate raises new and potentially more serious problems.
In 2022, the national birth population will be 9.56 million, falling below the 10 million mark for the first time since 1950, and the number of births in 2016 six years ago has experienced a wave of climax with the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy, with the number of newborns that year being 18.83 million, and reducing to about half after 6 years. At the same time, the number of deaths last year was 10.41 million, and the Chinese population showed negative growth for the first time in nearly 61 years.
As 2023 draws to a close, what will happen to the data on births and deaths? Judging from the various data (number of marriages and births) that have been observed so far, it is very likely that the number of newborns will fall below 9 million, and the population will also have a high probability of negative growth for two consecutive years.
In order to increase the number of new births, we must start by reducing the unmarried rate of people of childbearing age, so that more young people can enter the palace of marriage as soon as possible.
Achieving this goal will require a concerted effort by individuals and nations.
Young people should establish a correct view of marriage, and the requirements for choosing a mate must be reasonable. I always think that the family is the crystallization of the wisdom summed up by the ancients, and the requirements for the other half are too high, and even if you want to use marriage to climb the dragon and the phoenix, and achieve class leap, it is not only very difficult, but even if you do, you may not be able to live happily and comfortably.
In addition to doing a good job in guiding the work, the state should also make efforts in the system. Sometimes, it is necessary to take some mandatory measures to change customs and customs, such as the introduction of normative documents related to the amount of bride price, etc., and breaking down the obstacles in front of marriage is an important task that the relevant departments need to find ways to complete.
In short, we cannot afford to leave nothing unattended by the decline in birth and marriage rates. Rather than hoping for a major technological breakthrough that will lead to a dramatic increase in productivity, it is better to spend more effort on what is feasible.