#2023 Creative Challenge##俄罗斯表态支持印度 "Normal" #
Text/Sister Xiong
According to the Global Times, on December 27, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar held a meeting in Moscow. After the meeting, Lavrov once again said at a press conference that Russia supports India's membership in the UN Security Council.
(Jaishankar & Lavrov)
Since 2005, India, together with Japan, Germany, and Brazil, has submitted its first application for "normalization." But 18 years later, India's dream of "normalization" has still not been realized, and the reasons for this are naturally complex. When the Russians mention "supporting India" again at this time, they are actually using a "blank check" to "repay the favor" for the Indians.
(Jaishankar shakes hands with Lavrov)
On December 27, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that almost all of Russia's oil exports this year were shipped to China and India, accounting for almost 90% of Russia's total oil exports, while exports to Europe fell sharply from 40%-45% to 4%-5%. India, in particular, had almost no oil exports to India a few years ago, but since the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia, Russia's oil exports to India have increased by at least 40%.
This has brought India and Russia closer together, and it makes sense for the Russians to give India some return diplomatically. However, Russia's choice of reciprocation is very subtle, because the practical significance of "supporting normalization" is not very significant.
(Indian Refinery)
Objectively, the Security Council was established in 1945, and since then, the geopolitical realities of the world have changed dramatically, global economic and political forces are constantly shifting, but the Security Council has hardly changed. Therefore, there is indeed a need for reform of the Security Council, but the issue of the distribution of benefits has become the biggest obstacle to reform.
Judging from the statements of all parties, the current P5, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France all agree on the need for reform of the Security Council, but it is difficult to form a unified opinion on the reform plan because of the different interests and demands of all parties. The United States hopes to strengthen its influence in the Security Council and dilute the right of China and Russia to speak in the Security Council, so they are more supportive of the two allies, Japan and Germany, in "becoming a permanent member," and are doing their best to win over India; China and Russia support strengthening the voice of developing countries in the Security Council, believing that African countries should have permanent seats in the Security Council, and do not want to see the younger brother of the United States "join the Standing Committee." In the joking words of some analysts, Britain and France have worn the same pants from time to time with the United States in the P5, and then Japan and Germany are two countries.
(Data map: United Nations Security Council meeting)
In addition, other countries around the world also have objections to the "normalization" of many countries such as India. It is difficult for Asian countries to accept Japan as a permanent member of the UN Security Council because Japan committed numerous crimes against the Asian people during World War II and has not yet made a sincere apology; Italy, Pakistan, Mexico and Egypt also took the lead in setting up the "Coffee Club" (later renamed the "Solidarity" group) in 1995 to oppose an increase in the number of permanent members and support an increase in the number of non-permanent members, believing that an increase in permanent membership would further exacerbate the disparity between member states, leading to an expansion of a series of privileges and a knock-on effect. In a very short period of time, the organization attracted the participation of about 50 countries around the world, spread across Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Therefore, every once in a while, we can see the news that "a certain country supports India to become a permanent member", but at least for the time being, it may still be difficult for India to "become a permanent member" in a short period of time.
(UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi)
As for Russia's choice to write a "blank check" to India, the reason is also simple - the Indians are really self-inflicted.
On December 16, Reuters exclusively reported that the Indian government had delayed payment for at least seven shipments of Russian oil imports because it did not want to use the yuan for transactions, and the earliest shipment had been delivered to India as early as the end of September. In New Delhi's view, the use of renminbi payments would cause India's economy and politics to suffer, according to people familiar with the matter. On the economic side, this will cause Indian companies to suffer an exchange rate loss of 2%-3%, so they prefer to pay in Indian rupees, but the Russian side does not want to accept it; politically, many people believe that the use of RMB to pay will help the internationalization of the yuan, which is a great help to China, which can be called a "capital enemy". Therefore, the Modi government chose to continue to negotiate with the Russian side on the settlement method, hoping to find a channel without the renminbi.
(Indians walking on tankers)
This obviously does not satisfy the Russians, and it is probably one of the most important reasons why they choose to "repay" the Indians with "support for normalization".