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Perhaps seeing the signs of easing Sino-US relations, rethinking China-Philippines relations has become an issue that Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has to consider.
After all, once the United States abandons the Philippines, what will happen to the Philippines may not be predicted by Marcos Jr. Therefore, the Philippine Foreign Minister took the initiative to call the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was invited to answer the phone.
On the phone, Wang Yi can be said to have put down his cruel words, and the news was transmitted back to the Philippines. Immediately, an expert reminded the Marcos Jr. government that it must not forget the lessons of nine years ago, and if it repeats the mistakes of the past, it will be a great loss for the Philippines.
It is even more sober to mention that there is not much time left for Marcos Jr. So, what is the situation facing the Philippines today? Why is it in a hurry to ease relations with China? and what are the lessons learned from nine years ago?
Philippine diplomacy miscalculated
China has always pursued a foreign policy of peace and is committed to maintaining peaceful and friendly relations with the people of neighboring countries and the world. In fact, China's Belt and Road Summit has shown that China's foreign policy is recognized by most countries in the world, including ASEAN countries.
ASEAN countries have judged the situation and hope to follow China in the wake of the benefits and develop the country. However, this is not the case in the Philippines, which has always regarded China as an enemy, willingly being a pawn of the United States, and constantly provoking China's bottom line on the South China Sea issue.
On the South China Sea issue, ASEAN countries obviously have certain differences with the Philippines. During the most tense period of relations between the Philippines and China, no ASEAN country has ever spoken for the Philippines, and even many leaders have hinted that the Philippine president should keep a sober attitude and not turn the South China Sea into a battlefield.
The Philippines' constant provocations in the South China Sea are an important manifestation of its foreign policy miscalculation. The Philippines has repeatedly intruded into Second Thomas Shoal without China's permission. There have been repeated confrontations with Chinese coast guard vessels.
The Philippine government's misdeeds have been opposed by business and political circles, and Sties, a representative of the business community, who has eight shopping malls in China, was the first to voice her dissatisfaction.
He has repeatedly stated in public that China and the Philippines are neighbors and should actively adopt peaceful diplomatic means in the face of disputes. Her remarks reflected tensions between China and the Philippines and underscored how easily the Philippine government's foreign policy miscalculations toward China could affect domestic business development.
He pointed out that the Philippine economy still needs China's support, and if it insists on fighting with China, it will cause serious damage to the Philippine economy.
Even though the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has not been resolved, he still firmly believes that the Philippines should take the initiative to seek dialogue and resolve international disputes through a peaceful foreign policy. In his view, a peaceful diplomatic environment is conducive to the economic development of the Philippines.
At present, the important pillar of the Philippine economy is still Chinese businessmen, who control most of the economic lifeline of the Philippines. Under the premise of increasingly tense relations between China and the Philippines, Philippine business leaders have expressed their desire for dialogue between China and the Philippines. This also proves that the rationalists on China occupy the majority of the Philippines and have become the backbone of easing Sino-Philippine relations.
China has the world's largest consumer market and trade market, and the Philippines cannot get rid of its economic dependence on China, and many Chinese companies have factories in the Philippines.
At the same time, Chinese consumers have a huge demand for bananas, durians and handicrafts from the Philippines. It has gradually become an important part of the Philippine economy, and if Marcos remains tough on China, it is clear that the domestic economy will also be hit hard.
After all, Filipino residents are more concerned about improving their living standards than on maintaining a long-term confrontational and hostile attitude with China.
Today, Marcos Jr.'s foreign policy toward China has been resisted by the Philippine public, and his approval rating has even dropped by 15%, so it can be said that Marcos Jr. is facing great political pressure at home.
In addition to the business community expressing dissatisfaction with Marcos Jr.'s policies, domestic political commentators in the Philippines also issued warnings to Marcos Jr. He said that as things stand, the Philippines chose to continue to believe that the United States was provoking China in the South China Sea, which was tantamount to suicide.
Easing Sino-Philippine relations?
Perhaps it was the extreme pressure at home and abroad that forced the Marcos Jr. government to change its China policy, and Marcos Jr. took the initiative to release a signal of relaxation. Marcos Jr. said the two countries should start new talks on the South China Sea issue. Marcos Jr.'s change in attitude shows that the Philippines is trying to ease relations with China in the general direction of diplomacy.
China has no intention of making enemies with any country, so after the Philippines sent a friendly signal to China, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was invited to have a telephone conversation with the Philippine counterpart to exchange views on China-Philippines relations.
Minister Wang Yi said that the current China-Philippines relations are facing great provocations, and the main reason for this situation is the Philippines' bottomless provocation against China, which makes China very dissatisfied.
During the conversation, Minister Wang Yi also left two harsh remarks: China and the Philippines are at a tense crossroads, and the degree of easing of relations between the two countries needs to be deeply considered by the Philippine side in light of its own situation. At the same time, Minister Wang Yi also said that if the Philippines does not change its existing foreign policy towards China and does not completely change its direction on the South China Sea issue, China will also take necessary measures to respond and safeguard its sovereignty.
The Philippine Foreign Minister also expressed the Philippine side's attitude and hopes to resolve differences with China as soon as possible, maintain regional peace and stability, and avoid regional conflicts.
The change in the attitude of the Philippines is also largely due to the inability of the United States to provide substantial assistance to the Philippines, which has always been a pawn of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.
The United States and the Marcos administration naturally understand that the Philippines cannot compete with China in terms of strength or international influence. Therefore, the United States has always wanted to exaggerate China's maritime threat through public opinion warfare and try to provoke contradictions and disputes between China and its neighboring countries. In the end, the goal of containing China's development will be achieved.
Naturally, the Philippines also has its own agenda, which is more to use the United States to gain substantial benefits in the South China Sea. But with the continuous increase of China's international influence.
The Marcos administration gradually understood that if it wants to compete with China, it really can't do without some strength, and if it tears its face with China, the United States will withdraw as soon as possible, and there will be no one to protect itself. Therefore, before the phone call between the Chinese and Philippine foreign ministers, Marcos Jr. also expressed his attitude.
Marcos Jr. publicly stated that he would never expel the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, and that the Philippine side would assess the situation and never have a more serious conflict with the Chinese side. But at the same time, some people say that perhaps Marcos Jr.'s search for détente at this time is also a delaying tactic.
Now, the United States has no time to take care of the Philippines in its third-line operations, and the Philippines alone cannot confront China at all.
In fact, no matter what Marcos Jr.'s calculations are, Minister Wang Yi has made clear China's attitude on the South China Sea issue during the phone call between the Chinese and Philippine foreign ministers. In other words, if the Philippines is full of sincerity, China is still willing to have a frank dialogue with the Philippine side and strive for a peaceful settlement of the dispute. However, if the Philippine side tries to adopt delaying tactics and continue to cause trouble in the South China Sea, then the Philippine side should be prepared to accept China's next series of countermeasures.
Lessons from the Philippines
Herman Laurel, a well-known political commentator in the Philippines, issued a warning to the Marcos government, reminding the Philippine government not to forget the lessons of nine years ago.
If the mistakes of the past are repeated today, it will still be the Philippines that suffers losses and faces challenges. In an interview, Herman Laurel claimed that the main cause of the South China Sea problem was the active participation of the United States.
Otherwise, the Philippine government will never dare to repeatedly provoke China. The purpose of the United States is very simple, and now the only means to suppress and contain China are the South China Sea issue and the Taiwan Strait issue, and the United States can only ensure the smooth implementation of the Asia-Pacific strategy by constantly putting pressure on the Philippines behind its back.
Regarding the South China Sea dispute, there are still big differences in the Philippines, and even Marcos Jr.'s sister has publicly stated that the current government obeys the orders of the United States, which is not conducive to the peaceful development of the Philippines.
And the lesson from Herman Laurel's mouth came in 2014, when the Aquino government came to power. The miscalculation of Philippine diplomacy has caused a heavy blow to Sino-Philippine relations, and billions of pesos of bananas in the Philippines have been boycotted by China, and finally the Philippine bananas have rotted in the ground.
Banana farmers in the Philippines have suffered heavy losses, and the Philippine agricultural economy has also been dragged down. The Philippines has also designed the South China Sea arbitration with the United States and other Western countries, while purchasing a large number of military weapons from Western countries and opening military bases to the United States. It was precisely a series of operations by the Philippines that once caused Sino-Philippine relations to reach a point where they could not be eased.
Nine years later, it is clear that the Philippines' dependence on China has only increased, including in infrastructure cooperation. Herman said that it is impossible for the Philippines to seek assistance from the United States and Japan.
In the face of interests, the United States will never take the initiative to help, and Japan's economy has been in recession, and it is unable to provide any assistance to the Philippines. Therefore, it is China that can finally revive the Philippine economy. If the Marcos Jr. administration does not correctly assess China-Philippines relations, it will be difficult for the Philippine economy to flourish.
China-Philippines relations have reached a crossroads, and dialogue and consultation have become the fundamental and only way to solve the problem. To this day, China remains the Philippines' largest trading partner.
If the incident of nine years ago is to be repeated, the Marcos Jr. government will need to show the utmost sincerity to peacefully resolve the dispute with China, and it can be said that there is not much time left for the Philippine government. The responsibility for whether China-Philippines relations can be improved lies with the Philippines, not China.
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Resources:
China's Response--The Paper
Wang Yi had a telephone conversation with the Philippine Foreign Minister: The Philippine side must act cautiously Guo Xiangang: China-Philippines relations are facing difficulties The responsibility lies with the Philippine side --- CCTV