The Shanghai Composite Index has not risen by more than 1 percent for some time! This morning, the market finally sounded the horn of attack.
By the end of the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 2.34%, and the ChiNext Index was up 3.34%. More than 4,500 stocks rose.
On the disk, Huaneng Hydropower, which had hit a record high, fell 3.56%, and the coal sector also adjusted significantly. Correspondingly, the new energy track exploded, and LONGi Green Energy rarely rose to the limit. The TMT sector is active. The market mentality has changed from defensive to positive.
Hong Kong stocks also rose sharply in the morning. In addition, the offshore yuan rose above the 7.12 mark against the US dollar intraday, rising more than 300 basis points.
The CSI 300 index rose sharply
This morning, the CSI 300 index rose 1.86%, breaking through the 20-day moving average.
Among the constituent stocks of the CSI 300 index, China Duty Free, CATL, Industrial Fortune Union, ZTE, etc. rose sharply, and stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Ping An of China also rose. The sharp rise of these industry leading stocks has also driven the rise of corresponding sectors, such as new energy tracks, liquor, insurance, medical beauty and other sectors.
Since February 2021, when the core assets represented by Kweichow Moutai peaked and fell, the CSI 300 Index has been adjusted for nearly three years, during which the small-cap stock style has occupied the mainstream position in the market. How the style of small- and small-cap stocks will evolve in 2024 is one of the current market concerns.
China Merchants Securities recently believes that the CSI 300 Index is currently in a position of multiple extremes, which is seriously undervalued compared to other major types of assets, and the glimmer of the dawn of the bottom has appeared.
Extreme value 1: The price-to-book ratio of the CSI 300 Index returned to 1.17 times, which is near the lowest level in history;
Extreme 2: The price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index to the S&P 500 is 42.7%, which is close to the lowest in history;
Extreme value 3: The ratio of the CSI 300 Index to the South China Industrial Products Index fell to 0.82%, the lowest level since 2006;
Extreme 4: The dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index climbed to 3.33%, close to the record high, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index hit a record high relative to the yield of the 10-year treasury bond;
Extreme value 5: The CSI 300 index and the US dollar index have fluctuated in the same direction for a long time, and historically, the CSI 300 index has operated in the opposite direction with the US dollar index most of the time.
The agency also said that as the market's concerns about economic growth gradually ease, the previous style of bias towards defensive value and bias towards small-cap stocks will be more balanced, and the weighted sector is expected to usher in a rebound, and the growth style will remain strong.
According to Wind data, as of the 27th, the CSI 300 ETF (159919) has received a significant inflow of funds for 8 consecutive days, with a net inflow of more than 4 billion yuan during the period, and the share continues to hit a new high in the year, with the latest scale of nearly 38 billion yuan.
The new energy track broke out
This morning, the new energy track broke out, and BC batteries, POE films, solid-state batteries, energy storage, salt lake lithium extraction and other sectors rose first.
For the photovoltaic sector, Pacific Securities said that driven by capacity expansion and technology iteration, the quotation of the industrial chain has declined rapidly, and the parity of photovoltaic storage is gradually unfolding in various regions. At the same time, with the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle and the reform of the new power system, photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to grow rapidly. In the short term, under the influence of factors such as the accelerated release of production capacity, high inventory, and phased off-season in the fourth quarter of 2023, the supply side will accelerate the reshaping and a new cycle of supply and demand will begin.
In terms of investment opportunities, the agency recommends paying attention to auxiliary materials where the supply and demand pattern is better than that of the main industrial chain. For example, the silver paste link, which benefits from the iteration of new technologies and the change of product structure, is expected to be ahead of the main industrial chain in the photovoltaic film, glass and other auxiliary materials that benefit from product iteration and capacity supply and demand remodeling.
With the growth of demand and the replenishment of the industrial chain, the profit may be repaired in the second quarter of 2024.
For the energy storage sector, Oriental Fortune said that the price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply since December 2022, and in the first and second quarters of 2023, due to the rapid decline in lithium carbonate prices, downstream energy storage owners have a wait-and-see attitude. With the gradual stabilization of the subsequent lithium carbonate price drop in place, the wait-and-see sentiment of the owner will gradually ease, and the demand for energy storage installation will be gradually released.
(The picture of the market in the article comes from the straight flush)
Editor: Li Ruoyu Zhang Jing Signed: Ding Jianming