Photovoltaic concept stocks local changes, King Kong photovoltaic intraday once approached the 20CM limit, Three Gorges New Materials, Qingyuan shares before the limit, Deye shares, Tongling shares and so on.
On the news side, there are two negative news for the photovoltaic sector, one is that the shipping giant Maersk announced that it is ready to resume navigation in the Red Sea, which is an indirect negative for photovoltaic energy storage, and the other is that Tongwei continues to expand production, and is expected to invest 28 billion yuan to build industrial silicon and high-purity crystalline silicon projects.
In the past, the photovoltaic sector must have been smashed again, but today it is not like this, the bearish will not fall, maybe the bottom has really arrived.
This year's PV is very interesting, the industry demand is rising, and many companies are also performing very well. But the market value has been falling again and again. From January 1 this year to the present, nearly 90 A-share photovoltaic companies combined, the overall market value has evaporated more than 100 billion. If we only count the four major King Kong of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and modules, the total market value of more than 30 companies has evaporated by more than 660 billion.
In 2023, there are three reasons for the poor performance of PV stocks:
First, the degree of differentiation of photovoltaic products is limited, and the significant expansion of new and old manufacturers in the photovoltaic industry chain has led to overcapacity in the industry stage, and the sharp decline in product prices has affected profit expectations, and the industry fundamentals have weakened;
Second, the self-built industrial chain in Europe, America, India and other regions will reduce the global market share of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in the medium and long term;
Third, the performance of the A-share market is poor, and the photovoltaic sector held by public funds is facing redemption pressure from the people, and is forced to reduce positions in the secondary market, thus forming a cycle of position reduction-stock decline-position reduction.
Outlook for 2024: The industry will enter a new round of reshuffle, and the trend is expected to reverse
In 2024, the demand growth rate of the photovoltaic industry is expected to return to the historical growth rate of about 20%. In 2023, according to China's installed capacity of 170GW and the installed capacity demand of 200GW in overseas markets, the global installed capacity is expected to reach 370GW, a year-on-year increase of nearly 60%. In the short term, with the implementation of the first, second and third phases of the domestic wind and solar base project and the use of supporting UHV transmission channels, the growth rate of domestic photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to return to normal levels.
In the European market, after the liquidation of module inventories since 2023 and the decline in electricity prices, the European PV market is expected to grow steadily in 2024. In emerging regions such as the Middle East and Africa, the demand for clean energy is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is estimated that the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to maintain a growth rate of 15%-25% in 2024, reaching 425.5GW-462.5GW.
In the medium and long term, the global clean energy transition is full of momentum, and various factors such as national policies and economic benefits drive the long-term sustainable development of the industry.
The current hot spots on the disk are all lost, there is no main line, no volume, no north,