Author: Zhang Sheng
Source: Mingjin.com
Banks want to make money, but they are more concerned about risk.
Declining housing prices are dragging more people into the abyss!
One
The national property market has collectively entered a cold winter.
A week ago, Beijing and Shanghai released a big move in the property market at the same time, reducing down payments, lowering interest rates, and even the standards that had been implemented for 6 years were abolished overnight.
It's not that a few cities can't bear it, but all cities, including the first and second tiers, have been frozen in the cold winter.
In the past two days, there has been news that tens of millions of luxury houses in Shenzhen have been sold out in 6 hours, but it is just a fire in the cold winter, and it is not representative at all.
The property market affects the whole body, and with the general decline of more than 20% in the first and second tier housing prices, many people can't sit still.
Purely for self-occupation, the monthly payment is less than 1,000, and the house price has fallen by millions.
Investors and real estate speculators, not to mention making money, it is good to be able to cut meat and leave the market.
Seeing that the number of listings is increasing day by day, ordinary home sellers have collapsed.
There are also quite a number of people who are even more desperate, that is, the individuals who got the business loan with ultra-low interest two years ago have been crying recently, because it is time to renew the loan and repay the debt.
Many business loan users suddenly found that they could not renew, and there were tens of millions of holes all of a sudden, and such a situation began to appear in batches, and the huge risk of supply interruption was accumulating.
Two
There is no such thing as taking advantage of it in vain!
From 2020 three years ago to the end of 2021, domestic mortgage interest rates have climbed to a nearly decade-high point, and the interest rates on loans from other banks are also not low.
One of the most prominent is the business loan, the special preferential treatment introduced during this special period, the interest rate is usually between 3% and 5%, and some banks can do it below 3%, which is much lower than the personal mortgage interest rate at that time. Loans that were supposed to help businesses tide over the storm and provide them with life-saving funds to save more jobs and stimulate the economy have been used elsewhere.
The premise is that it must be an enterprise, and ordinary individuals are not entitled to enjoy it, and under the instigation of loan intermediaries and some banks, countless leather bag companies can easily meet the loan conditions after packaging for individuals.
Some people lend out this ultra-low interest rate money and use it for investment, at that time, it was not uncommon for wealth management products with a yield of more than 4% or even 5%, and one in and one out was risk-free arbitrage.
More people are taking out their money to replace housing loans, and after replacing more than 6% of the original housing loans with 4% business loans, the first and second-tier cities instantly saved millions of interest.
In the craziest moments, the bank manager will teach you how to do it.
The bank loan task was successfully completed, the customer was happy to save money, and everyone seemed to be the winner.
That's why we see today's bizarre scene, with residential mortgages falling off a cliff and business loans soaring on a rocket.
However, there are two major risks behind it that cannot be ignored: one is that the bank may withdraw the loan at any time, and the other is that the loan period is only 3-5 years, and the loan must be renewed when it expires, and the right of interpretation is in the hands of the bank.
As the property market turned cold, houses could not be sold, housing prices began to decline in a large area, and big problems appeared one after another.
Bank loan interest rates continued to fall, the central bank tightened the threshold for operating loans, large banks were forced to suspend the business, and some people were required by banks to repay in full in advance.
In particular, after the reduction of the stock housing loan, the interest rate is almost the same as that of the original operating loan, and the risk of the operating loan is further amplified.
Facts have proved that what business loan users are most afraid of is not that the bank will take out loans, no bank is willing to do this, as long as there is a house and the monthly repayment is on time, the bank will not easily find trouble with these high-quality customers.
Their biggest risk is precisely the rise and fall of housing prices that they least care about at the beginning. Banks need to be re-evaluated when they expire, and when the property market is stable or housing prices are rising, there is little difference in the amount of money that can be borrowed from a house, and there may be more.
But at the moment, it is clear that the other extreme is staged, and even Shenzhen, the richest city in China, is not uncommon for housing prices to drop by 20%.
As a result, the bank will give you 7 million at the appraisal price of 7% for the house you bought for 10 million two years ago. Now the house price is only worth 8 million, even if there is a bank that lends up to 8 percent, you can only get 6.4 million, and the rest of the holes can only be raised by yourself, otherwise the loan will be stopped.
This does not take into account that banks have raised risk control and audit standards for the safety of funds, even for those enterprises that do take business loans, once the business conditions of the enterprises deteriorate, whether they can renew the loan and how much they can borrow depends on the bank's face.
Three
When the surging tide of prepayment was extinguished by the reduction of existing housing loans, banks began to "settle accounts after autumn".
Due to the exposure of "business loan replacement housing loan", it is only a rare case that the bank is required to repay the loan in full.
More banks are being forced to take measures because they are still facing the dilemma of having too much money in hand and not being able to let it go.
Take the five major banks as an example, personal business loans have all experienced ultra-rapid growth in 2021, with a growth rate of more than 20%, and even the universe bank has a growth rate of 34.7%.
The balance of operating loans in the hands of the five major banks is naturally a sky-high number, with the highest postal savings exceeding 915.3 billion yuan, and the least Bank of Communications also having 188.2 billion yuan.
Next year, this huge stock of operating loans will face a dammed lake that will expire in batches, and the consequences of improper disposal will be unimaginable.
If the housing price can not be stopped, there will be many people who have to be prepared to make up the holes, there are too many holes that cannot be filled, and the pain is not only the individual, but also the bank.