Before the US presidential election officially began, the internal political struggle had gradually entered a white heat.
According to a report by China Daily on the 21st, the Supreme Court of Colorado ruled that according to the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, in view of the actions of former Republican President Trump in the riot at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, Trump will be removed from the voting in the state's 2024 presidential primary and is ineligible to run for president of the United States. The ruling marks the first time in U.S. history that Article 3 of the 14th Amendment has been used to disqualify a presidential candidate.
After the Civil War, Congress added a provision to the 14th Amendment to the Constitution that barred officials involved in "rebellion or rebellion" from holding federal office. But the dust has not yet settled, as Trump has sued the Supreme Court, and the Colorado Supreme Court will delay its decision until January 4. However, if the U.S. Supreme Court does not intend to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling against Trump, then Trump's political career will most likely end in the last month of 2023.
At the same time, since Colorado fired the first shot, many Democrats in the deep blue states have also said that they will use similar tactics to block Trump in their own states. It can be said that the 2024 primary election has not yet begun, and the smoke of war has already filled the streets.
Trump's judicial haze
According to US media reports, Trump will face a "busy court schedule" in the 2024 election year - dozens of items from ordinary business disputes, civil lawsuits to criminal charges, but it is still four criminal charges that can really decide whether Trump will go to prison.
The first charges stem from Trump's first presidential campaign in 2016, when Manhattan, N.Y., Attorney Alvin Bragg investigated and indicted Trump for allegedly falsifying business records, the first criminal charge against a former president in 234-year U.S. history. Before the 2016 presidential election, Mr. Trump allegedly had his lawyer pay $130,000 in hush money to Stormy Daniels, a actress, and then $130,000 in compensation for legal fees.
The hush money itself is not illegal, but prosecutors believe that the hush money is for the purpose of Trump's presidential campaign and is campaign money. That's a big deal, because tampering with business records in New York State is a misdemeanor, but it's a felony like Trump's to cover up the use of campaign funds.
In the second case, Trump took away many classified defense documents from the White House when he left the presidency, including some involving sensitive nuclear programs and other documents detailing the country's potential military vulnerabilities, and repeatedly refused to return them. The FBI seized Mar-a-Lago at his residence with a warrant and found evidence that Trump had asked employees to move hidden documents and destroy surveillance video, the most serious criminal charges Trump is currently facing. The trial of the case is scheduled to be held in May next year, and judging from the current evidence, it is more likely that a conviction and sentence will be imposed.
The third is the criminal indictment of Trump for allegedly trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. The 45-page indictment shows that Mr. Trump asked the secretary of state to "find 11,780 votes" for him and threatened the secretary with criminal liability if he failed to change the election results. Prosecutors pleaded with four felony counts, including conspiracy to defraud the United States, attempting to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy to violate rights, and faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted.
Finally, there is the Capitol Hill riot. On January 6, 2021, the U.S. Capitol Hill, considered a "symbol of democracy," was stormed by supporters of President Trump, killing at least four people, the most devastation on record since British troops burned the U.S. Capitol in 1814. But Trump pleaded not guilty to all four criminal cases, and also pointed out that political opponents behind the cases intended to interfere in the 2024 presidential election.
Why Colorado dared to fire the first shot
As we all know, the United States has long adhered to the system of separation of powers between the federal and state governments, and the concept of "the central government and the local government is different, and the state is independent" is also deeply embodied in the presidential election system. Voters first cast their votes for the electors in each state, and then accumulate the votes of each candidate in the "Electoral College" to get the general election result. Because of the independence of state powers, states are almost indistinguishable from independent states except for military, diplomatic, and tariff laws, which are vested in federal powers. The Colorado Supreme Court's final ruling, which completely kicked Trump out of the state's primary, is a typical manifestation of his statehood.
In principle, the electoral vote in every state and territory counts. However, due to the very obvious preferences of voters in some states in the United States, there are areas where Republicans and Democrats are bound to win, called "iron votes". Historically, Colorado has been a Republican state, voting for Democratic presidential candidates only twice from 1952 to 2004. But since the beginning of this century, this swing state is gradually moving closer to the "blue" and becoming the "iron vote" of the Democratic Party, voting for the Democratic Party four times in a row since 2008, and Trump lost to Biden by 13.6% in 2020.
Over the past eight years, about 800,000 young voters have moved to Colorado, a huge increase. Although they are not registered as Democrats, they are more liberal on social issues, especially against Trump. Currently, two U.S. senators in Colorado are Democrats: Michael Bennet and John Hickenloope, Democrats hold five of the eight U.S. House members, the state Senate and the state House of Representatives are firmly controlled by Democrats, and since 2006 the governorship has been held by Democrats, with the current governor being Democrat Jared The seven justices on the state Supreme Court, while all nonpartisan, were appointed by Democratic governors, many of whom were appointed when Hickenlooper was governor.
Jared Polis
That's why the Colorado Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that Trump was not a presidential candidate. But this delicate ratio also suggests that even blue states like Colorado are deeply divided over whether to disqualify Mr. Trump, especially with Chief Justice Brian Boatright's disapproval of the ruling. And Colorado isn't the first state to take a shot at Mr. Trump, with four Democratic-controlled states filing similar lawsuits in the past few months, all of which have been dismissed.
Although, Colorado is not particularly important for the Republican candidates in the United States, as it only accounts for nine candidate votes, while the president-elect needs at least 270 electoral votes. But if the U.S. Supreme Court upholds the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling, Trump will have a headache because the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling is common across the country.
Biden wins?
Even if Trump loses the vote in Colorado, that doesn't mean Biden will win.
First of all, Trump's team has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which has a total of nine justices, six conservatives, Neil Gorsuch, Bret Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett were all promoted by Trump when he was in office, and the remaining three are liberals. Therefore, there is a high probability that this verdict in Colorado will be overturned. Of course, it is not excluded that some of the six conservative justices will put aside their political leanings and make judgments that will shock the world.
Second, Biden is in impeachment embarrassment. As recently as December 13, the U.S. House of Representatives formally approved the incumbent president to launch an impeachment inquiry initiated by the Republican Party. It focuses on four main areas: the Biden family's alleged receipt of foreign funds, the misconduct of Biden's son Hunter, Biden's pressure on the Ukrainian government, and the alleged manipulation of the judiciary. These accusations not only challenge Biden's political innocence, but also directly threaten his presidency.
Affected by this, Biden's approval rating is also declining. Especially in key swing states, Biden's situation as incumbent president looks worse instead. According to the results of the "National Economic Survey" released by CNBC on the 19th, Biden's overall approval rating fell to 35%. According to the report, this is the lowest approval rating recorded by CNBC during Biden's tenure. Among them, 62% of respondents do not approve of Biden's work dealing with economic issues, and 66% have a negative attitude towards the current state and prospects of the economy, which is the highest in the 17-year history of the "National Economic Survey". Biden even said he was willing to give up his candidacy for president next year as long as Congress passed a bill to aid Ukraine.
What's more, there have always been calls within the Democratic Party for a substitution election. For example, California Governor Gavin Newsom, who just came to China to brush up on a wave of "presence". Behind this person stands the Newsom family and the Pelosi family, and has shown a clear leftist stance on several hot topics in the United States, such as gun control, abortion, racial discrimination and other issues, and is the highest approval rating of California's governor in 50 years. Even Biden praised Newsom, who presided over the APEC host work, and said something like "he can even be the president of the United States."
Gavin Newsom
Because of the ideological antagonism, opposition between the same parties and different parties has become a prerequisite factor for voters of the two parties when thinking about the issue. Francis Fukuyama, a professor of political science at Stanford University and author of the "End of History" article, argues that electoral reform, the emergence of a third party, and bottom-up grassroots movements may all be important means of depolarization, but they can neither solve the root cause nor implement them quickly. And as the election year approaches, it is foreseeable that the political polarization between the two parties in the United States will intensify and have a significant impact on the election.
Resources:
A Colorado court ruled that Trump was ineligible to run for president, according to Finance Magazine
The Unkillable Trump Trendy Meditations
Trump is disqualified as a presidential candidacy, how will things develop?
Trump's judicial haze and Biden's impeachment dilemma Fudan China-US friendship, mutual trust and cooperation plan